Before FX announced that more Shōgun was on the way, thereby shifting the feudal Japan epic’s Emmy categorization from limited to drama series, it appeared that at least one top race on TV’s biggest night would be coming down to the wire. Shōgun emerged as a front-runner in early 2024, breaking ratings records for its network and sustaining the best reviews of any new show this winter. Then Netflix launched Baby Reindeer: a small, personal British tragicomedy that somehow became the streaming phenomenon of the season, so much so that it appeared to stand a chance against a series seemingly (and successfully) engineered for awards success.

Now, though, this enticing rivalry will not come to pass—and we’re left searching for intrigue. So we do just that on this week’s Little Gold Men (listen below).

Baby Reindeer appears primed to run the table in the limited-series categories, surfing a massive wave of buzz and industry adoration. While FX’s Fargo, HBO’s True Detective: Night Country and The Sympathizer, and Apple TV+’s Lessons in Chemistry certainly have factors in their favor—from strong audience ratings to critical acclaim or a built-in awards track record—the noise on them is too quiet right now to stop the Richard Gadd train. The only thing in Baby Reindeer’s way is brewing controversy around its true-story basis—the model for the stalker character at its center has been identified and gone public, indicating she’s planning to take legal action—which Netflix certainly hopes won’t balloon any further.

Shōgun, meanwhile, has evolved into an even stronger front-runner among drama series. While it’s actually rare for a drama to win the top award for its first season—over the past decade, only The Handmaid’s Tale has pulled that off—the show has crashed a fairly amorphous field, which is feeling the absence of Succession. The Crown seemed like a de facto leader, as it’s campaigning for its final season and has won the category in the past. But that Netflix series didn’t end on a high with critics and seems primed, in the vein of Mad Men or Homeland, to end a bit weaker with the Television Academy after enjoying a strong start. Other buzzy new shows hoping for nominations, like Fallout or 3 Body Problem, likely lean too genre-heavy to go all the way.

A guide to Hollywood’s biggest races

That leaves the comedy race, which may be where the most tension lies—ironic since a few months ago, it felt like the most settled of all. Reigning champ The Bear remains comfortably out front, and if its impending third season (ineligible for this year’s Emmys, but airing less than two months before final voting begins) delivers as expected, it’ll likely ride an ideal final surge of momentum to the finish line. But Hacks is giving the FX phenomenon a real run for its money. The Max comedy came back stronger than ever for season three, and audiences certainly noticed; it also helps that this show has more of a classic comic shape than does The Bear. (Rivals are so annoyed by The Bear’s categorization that they’re reportedly lobbying for the Academy to intervene.)

One thing’s for sure: The best-actress battle between Hacks’ Jean Smart and The Bear’s Ayo Edebiri, both of whom are undefeated at the Emmys for their respective roles, will be one for the ages.