Fears of a Purple Wave in Democratic Strongholds Cast Doubt on Biden’s Campaign

A flurry of new polling illustrates just how contentious and confusing this upcoming election is for the American public.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump
US President Joe Biden (R) and Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump participate in the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024, in Atlanta, Georgia.Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

As President Joe Biden’s campaign viability faces new critiques and daily defections, solidly blue states may be shifting toward purple, according to polling and local officials across the country.

Still months away from the general election, some Democratic leaders and polls show that Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia—all of which Biden won by several percentage points in 2020—are potentially ebbing closer to battleground states for Biden and former president Donald Trump.

“The dynamics are different in each of the four possible battleground states: Minnesota, for instance, has a knack for voting for third-party candidates, while New Mexico has a large population of Hispanic men, a group that Mr. Biden has struggled to win over,” The New York Times’s Nicholas Nehamas and Kellen Browning wrote on Friday. “But consistent across all four states are widespread fears about Mr. Biden’s age, unhappiness with inflation and electorates that are more closely divided than many national observers realize, according to interviews with local Democratic officials and strategists.”

This apparent transition of Democratic stronghold states comes after weeks of contentious commotion surrounding Biden’s fitness to lead the party’s ticket—and this country for another four years—following a poor debate performance at the end of June. As of July 12, according to tracking from the Times, 19 representatives, one senator, and a growing number of powerful donors and business leaders have all called on the president to step aside, with even more expressing concern for whether Biden could effectively prevent another Trump administration.

“I believe the time has come for President Biden to pass the torch,” Representative Mike Levin of California said. “I fear if he fails to make the right choice, our democracy will hang in the balance,” Illinois Representative Brad Schneider said Thursday. “I understand why President Biden wants to run. He saved us from Donald Trump once and wants to do it again,” Peter Welch, the first Senator in the country to push for Biden to drop out, wrote in a Washington Post editorial, “But he needs to reassess whether he is the best candidate to do so. In my view, he is not.”

Since the immediate fallout from Biden’s poor debate performance, the president has been consistent in his insistence that he is going to stay in the race.

In a post-debate interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos, Biden dismissed concerns that his cognitive health was declining and attempted to use his policy legacy as an assurance of his potential future successes.

“If you can be convinced that you cannot defeat Donald Trump, will you stand down?” Stephanopoulos asked.

“If the Lord Almighty comes down and tells me that, I might do that,” later adding, “The Lord Almighty’s not comin’ down.”

Multiple polls have forecasted a tight nationwide race in November, even with the growing discontent about the Democratic ticket. The latest ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll has Biden and Trump in a tie. A new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that Biden actually gained a point since last month’s pre-debate survey. And that poll, taken among registered voters, including leaners, puts Biden at 50 percent to Trump’s 48 percent in a two-way presidential matchup.

State-by-state contests, though, are still causing Democratic leaders to stress.

A Fox News Poll found that in Virginia, where Biden won by over 450,000 votes in 2020, the race is tied—with the two men each standing at 48 percent. Virginia hasn’t sided with a Republican in two decades, since George W. Bush won reelection in 2004.

While Democrats have full control of the Virginia General Assembly as of last year, Biden’s allies are concerned.

“As much as we want this to be a blue state, this is a deep purple state, and you have to give it some attention,” Mayor Levar Stoney of Richmond said. “You can’t take it for granted.”

In an early July gathering of Democratic governors, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham said she was worried that the president could lose her state, according to the NYT’s reporting based on the accounts of two people briefed on the meeting.

“I’ve been really clear to the White House and to President Biden as a candidate that it’s a much tougher election. And so we all better be prepared and know what your risks are,” the governor told local news outlet KRQE News 13.

According to a recent poll by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, 39 percent of registered voters polled in the state viewed Biden favorably, compared to 42 percent for Trump. Even though Biden is leading among those who dislike both candidates, the poll projected that Trump would take the state by two percentage points.

Just this week, the nonpartisan elections forecaster, Cook Political Report, downgraded New Hampshire and Minnesota from “likely” wins for Biden to only leaning in his direction.

In 2020, Biden won Minnesota by over seven percentage points. Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota said securing his state is key for Biden come November.

“You get out, you make yourself available, you do press conferences, you stand in front of people and take questions that weren’t given to you ahead of time, and do the best you can to answer those. And those are the things that I expect them to do,” Walz said. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1972, but a movement to vote non-committed in the state’s primary in response to Biden’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza has cast doubt on Minnesota’s standing.

The flurry of pre-election polling has reflected just how contentious and confusing the upcoming election has been for the American public. While recent polling has illustrated that nine in ten voters nationwide are planning to cast a ballot this November, scores of Americans aren’t happy about their choices. The NPR/PBS News/Marist national poll found that a majority of respondents believe that neither Trump nor Biden should be on the ballot.