When the championship game of the Commissioner’s Cup between the Aces and Liberty tips on Tuesday in Las Vegas, the first title of the season will be on the line, along with the cup trophy and the prize money that goes to the winning team.

Of course, the Commissioner’s Cup is just a precursor to the ultimate prize of the season – the WNBA championship – and the playoff picture of the teams that will vie for that title is starting to take shape as the final quarter of the season gets underway this week.

Below we’ll break down the field into five tiers, then dive a bit deeper into each team’s playoff outlook with 10 games to play (and for two teams nine games to play) to determine their postseason fate.

Tier 1: Clinched (2 teams)

• Las Vegas (27-3)
• New York (24-6)

Tier 2: On the Brink (1 team)

• Connecticut (21-9)

Tier 3: Slightly Ahead of the Pack (1 team)

• Dallas (16-14)

Tier 4: In the Fight (5 teams)

• Atlanta (15-16)
• Minnesota (14-16)
• Washington (14-16)
• Chicago (12-18)
• Los Angeles (12-18)

Tier 5: Longshots (3 teams)

• Seattle (9-21)
• Phoenix (9-21)
• Indiana (8-23)

Note: all rankings and stats through games played on Sunday, Aug. 13

1. Las Vegas Aces (27-3)

• Previous Ranking: 1
• Last Week: W at Wings 104-84, W vs. Mystics 113-89, W vs. Dream 86-65
• This Week: Tuesday vs. Liberty (Commissioner’s Cup), Thursday vs. Liberty, Saturday vs. Sparks
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 114.3 (1); DefRtg: 96.7 (1); NetRtg: 17.6 (1); eFG%: 56.4 (1); Pace/40 Min: 8082.27 (2)

The Aces were the first team to clinch a playoff berth and at 27-3 through 30 games, they just set a franchise record for wins with 10 games still to play. One game that won’t count toward the standings is Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup Championship Game against the Liberty as Las Vegas looks to repeat as champions after beating Chicago last year. The Aces are a perfect 15-0 at home, which is the site of Tuesday’s matchup.

2. New York Liberty (24-6)

• Previous Ranking: 2
• Last Week: W vs. Sky 89-73, W at Fever 100-89
• This Week: Tuesday at Aces (Commissioner’s Cup), Thursday at Aces, Friday vs. Mercury
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 108.5 (2); DefRtg: 99.4 (3); NetRtg: 9.2 (2); eFG%: 53.7 (2); Pace/40 Min: 80.71 (7)

Similar to the Aces, the Liberty have both clinched a playoff berth and set a franchise record for wins with the final quarter of the season to add to that total. New York is riding a six-game win streak – the longest active streak in the league – with Breanna Stewart making history along the way. Stewart had 42 points in Sunday’s win over Indiana, setting a record for the most 40-point games in a single season with three.

3. Connecticut Sun (21-9)

• Previous Ranking: 3
• Last Week: W at Storm 81-69, L at Mercury 90-84, L at Wings 91-81
• This Week: Friday vs. Wings, Sunday at Sky
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 103.9 (4); DefRtg: 98.0 (2); NetRtg: 5.9 (3); eFG%: 49.8 (4); Pace/40 Min: 80.18 (8)

The Sun are one win away from clinching a playoff berth and returning to the postseason for the seventh straight season. Connecticut just split a four-game road trip, but enters this week having lost two straight as they will look to avoid their first three-game losing streak since June 2021 when they host the Wings on Friday.

4. Dallas Wings (16-14)

• Previous Ranking: 4
• Last Week: L vs. Aces 104-84, W vs. Sun 91-81
• This Week: Friday at Sun, Sunday at Mystics
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 105.2 (3); DefRtg: 102.4 (7); NetRtg: 2.8 (4); eFG%: 47.9 (9); Pace/40 Min: 82.12 (3)

Tiebreaker Summary:

• Won: Atlanta (2-1, 1 to play)
• Lost: Chicago (0-3), Los Angeles (1-3)
• TBD (Leading): Minnesota (2-0, 2 to play); Washington (2-1, 1 to play)

The last of the four current teams playing above .500 ball, the Wings have a two-game advantage in the loss column over the teams looking to take that No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. The Wings have a four-game lead over the Nos. 8/9 teams, putting them in less danger of missing the playoffs. The Wings hit the road for three straight and five of their next six games; they are 6-8 on the road so far this season.

5. Minnesota Lynx (14-16)

• Previous Ranking: 7
• Last Week: W at Sky 88-79, L at Fever 91-73
• This Week: Friday at Storm, Sunday vs. Storm
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 99.4 (8); DefRtg: 105.8 (11); NetRtg: -6.5 (11); eFG%: 48.3 (7); Pace/40 Min: 79.78 (10)

Tiebreaker Summary:

• Won: Washington (2-0, 1 to play); Los Angeles (4-0)
• Lost: Atlanta (0-2, 1 to play)
• TBD (Trailing): Dallas (0-2, 2 to play)
• TBD (Tied): Chicago (1-1, 1 to play)

Minnesota has lost three of their last four games – losing to Connecticut, New York, and Indiana, while beating Chicago – but moved up in this week’s rankings in part because of the struggles of other teams that have dropped – Atlanta and Chicago. The Lynx have a home-and-home set with Seattle to try to get back on track. From a playoff perspective, the Lynx are tied in the loss column (16) with Atlanta and Washington; the Lynx hold the tiebreaker over the Mystics, but not the Dream. The Lynx are two up in the loss column against both Chicago (a tiebreaker will be determined in their final meeting on Sept. 8) and Los Angeles (Lynx own the tiebreaker with a season series sweep).

6. Washington Mystics (14-16)

• Previous Ranking: 8
• Last Week: L at Mercury 91-72, L at Aces 113-89, W vs. Sky 83-76
• This Week: Friday at Fever, Sunday vs. Wings
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 99.5 (7); DefRtg: 100.8 (5); NetRtg: -1.4 (5); eFG%: 48.1 (8); Pace/40 Min: 80.90 (5)

Tiebreaker Summary:

• Won: Chicago (4-0)
• Lost: Minnesota (0-2, 1 to play)
• TBD (Tied): Los Angeles (1-1, 1 to play)
• TBD (Trailing): Dallas (1-2, 1 to play); Atlanta (1-2, 1 to play)

The Mystics continue to play shorthanded and have fallen into a crowded playoff battle in the middle of the standings. Washington got a much-needed win over Chicago on Sunday to snap their second three-game losing streak since late July. The good news is that Shakira Austin returned on Sunday and the trio of Elena Delle Donne, Ariel Atkins, and Kristi Toliver are getting close to returning as well. When healthy, Washington was clearly a top-four team and would be out of this group, but until the Mystics get their full roster back and start to win consistently, they have to remain in Tier 4.

7. Atlanta Dream (15-16)

• Previous Ranking: 5
• Last Week: L at Storm 68-67, L at Sparks 85-74, L at Aces 86-65
• This Week: Friday vs. Sky
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 98.6 (9); DefRtg: 101.0 (6); NetRtg: -2.3 (6); eFG%: 47.8 (10); Pace/40 Min: 83.07 (1)

Tiebreaker Summary:

• Won: Minnesota (2-0, 1 to play), Chicago (3-0, 1 to play)
• Lost: Dallas (0-2, 1 to play)
• TBD (Leading): Washington (2-1, 1 to play); Los Angeles (2-1, 1 to play)

The Dream enter this week having lost three straight, five of their last six, and eight of their last 11 games since they went on a seven-game win streak from June 30-July 18. Despite their recent struggles, the Dream remain on decent ground in the playoff mix as they enter the week at No. 5 with a half-game lead over both Minnesota and Washington. The Dream hold two tiebreakers (over Minnesota and Chicago) and leads two other season series with a chance to clinch with another win (Aug. 25 vs. Los Angeles, Sept. 8 at Washington). The Dream play six of their final nine games at home, where they are 8-6 compared to 7-10 on the road.

8. Los Angeles Sparks (12-18)

• Previous Ranking: 9
• Last Week: W at Fever 87-80, W vs. Dream 85-74
• This Week: Saturday at Aces
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 97.6 (11); DefRtg: 100.2 (4); NetRtg: -2.7 (7); eFG%: 47.0 (12); Pace/40 Min: 80.73 (6)

Tiebreaker Summary:

• Won: Dallas (3-0)
• Lost: Minnesota (0-4)
• TBD (Tied): Washington (1-1, 1 to play)
• TBD (Trailing): Atlanta (1-2, 1 to play); Chicago (1-2, 1 to play)

The Sparks have won three straight games — their first three-game win streak in over a year (July 1-4, 2022). Nneka Ogwumike joins MVP favorites Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson as the only three players averaging at least 19 points and nine rebounds this season. If the playoffs started today, the Sparks would be the first team out as they are tied with Chicago (12-18), but trail in that season series (1-2 with one game to play on Aug. 29). Two other games to circle for the Sparks: Aug. 25 at Atlanta (Sparks can tie season series) and Sept. 3 vs. Washington (the winner clinches the season series).

9. Chicago Sky (12-18)

• Previous Ranking: 6
• Last Week: L vs. Lynx 88-79, L at Liberty 89-73, L at Mystics 83-76
• This Week: Friday at Dream, Sunday vs. Sun
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 99.9 (6); DefRtg: 104.2 (9); NetRtg: -4.3 (8); eFG%: 49.5 (5); Pace/40 Min: 80.12 (9)

Tiebreaker Summary:

• Won: Dallas (3-0)
• Lost: Atlanta (0-3, 1 to play), Washington (0-4)
• TBD (Leading): Los Angeles (2-1, 1 to play)
• TBD (Tied): Minnesota (1-1, 1 to play)

The teeter-totter season in Chicago continues, as they followed a three-game win streak (July 30-Aug. 6 with two wins over Dallas and one over Phoenix) with a three-game losing streak (Aug. 8-13 with losses to Minnesota, New York and a shorthanded Washington). The Sky currently hold the eighth and final playoff spot as they lead the season series with the Sparks to hold the tiebreaker. Chicago has already lost tiebreakers to both Atlanta and Washington, which will make a climb in the seedings more difficult. The Sky are tied with Minnesota (the series will be decided on Sept. 8).

10. Seattle Storm (9-21)

• Previous Ranking: 10
• Last Week: L vs. Sun 81-69, W vs. Dream 68-67, W vs. Mercury 81-71
• This Week: Friday vs. Lynx, Sunday at Lynx
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 96.3 (12); DefRtg: 102.7 (8); NetRtg: -6.4 (10); eFG%: 47.1 (11); Pace/40 Min: 80.91 (4)

Seattle leads the pack of three teams currently on the outside looking in on the playoff picture, three games back in the loss column to No. 8 Chicago and No. 9 Los Angeles. After enduring a franchise record 10-game losing streak, the Storm have gone 5-2 in their last seven games to keep their very slim playoff hopes alive. Making that improbable feat more challenging is the loss of Gabby Williams for the season with a foot injury, and the fact that the Storm have wrapped up their season series with Phoenix as the matchups with the Mercury account for four of Seattle’s nine wins.

11. Phoenix Mercury (9-21)

• Previous Ranking: 11
• Last Week: W vs. Mystics 91-72, W vs. Sun 90-84, L at Storm 81-71
• This Week: Friday vs. Liberty, Sunday vs. Fever
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 98.4 (10); DefRtg: 105.1 (10); NetRtg: -6.7 (12); eFG%: 50.5 (3); Pace/40 Min: 78.87 (12)

The Mercury have won three of their past five games, with both losses coming at the hands of the Storm as Seattle swept the season series 4-0. Sunday’s loss in Seattle dropped the Mercury to 1-14 on the road this season. The Mercury are back at home this week – where they are 8-7 on the season – with matchups against New York and Indiana.

12. Indiana Fever (8-23)

• Previous Ranking: 12
• Last Week: L vs. Sparks 87-80, W vs. Lynx 91-73, L vs. Liberty 100-89
• This Week: Friday vs. Mystics, Sunday at Mercury
• Team Stats: OffRtg: 101.0 (5); DefRtg: 106.6 (12); NetRtg: -5.6 (9); eFG%: 48.8 (6); Pace/40 Min: 79.15 (11)

While not mathematically eliminated, Indiana appears headed to the lottery for the seventh straight season as the losses have continued to mount for the Fever, who have lost four of their last five, eight of their last 10 and are just 3-16 in their last 19 games after their promising 5-7 start to the season.

Longtime WNBA reporter Brian Martin writes articles on WNBA.com throughout the season. The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the WNBA or its clubs.