Dave Karger's 2023 Oscars predictions: James Cameron has entered the chat

Now that several high-profile groups including the Critics Choice, Golden Globes, AFI, and National Board of Review have announced their nominees and honorees, we have a better idea where things are heading this awards season. The true test lies in the coming weeks with the myriad guild award nominations, but the overall race is getting sharper.

Best Picture

Thanks to their strong showings so far, Top Gun: Maverick and Everything Everywhere All At Once seem to be the two films that have a shot against The Fabelmans. Meanwhile, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Empire of Light have failed to gain much traction in the Best Picture race so they have fallen off of my rankings.

1. The Fabelmans
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. TÁR
7. Women Talking
8. Elvis
9. Babylon
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
11. The Woman King
12. RRR

Best Director

Steven Spielberg remains in the lead, but I'd say contenders like James Cameron and the Daniels are nipping at his heels. Meanwhile, it's looking more and more like female filmmakers might be shut out this year.

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Daniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Todd Field, TÁR
6. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
7. Sarah Polley, Women Talking
8. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
9. Damien Chazelle, Babylon
10. Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King

Best Actor

Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser still have a stronghold on this category, while Bill Nighy is coming up on the outside thanks to his beautiful performance in Living. Will Smith, meanwhile, has yet to earn a major nomination for Emancipation. Releasing the film in the same calendar year as his infamous Oscars incident may not have been the best idea.

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
6. Hugh Jackman, The Son
7. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
8. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
9. Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. Diego Calva, Babylon

Best Actress

The relatively weak showing so far for Empire of Light means that Olivia Colman may not score her fourth nomination in five years after all. Meanwhile, Margot Robbie joins my list with her bold turn in Babylon.

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
4. Viola Davis, The Woman King
5. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
6. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
7. Margot Robbie, Babylon
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Causeway
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Supporting Actor

The Critics Choice nominations, which usually match up decently with the Oscar nods, included pairs of actors from The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin. Along with Everything Everywhere comeback phenomenon Ke Huy Quan, this group could end up comprising the entire roster.

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
5. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
6. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
10. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

Best Supporting Actress

Eight strong performances were nominated in this category at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes combined. That means three of them will fail to make the cut at the Oscars. But rest assured that Jamie Lee Curtis and Kerry Condon are locks.

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
5. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
6. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All At Once
7. Carey Mulligan, She Said
8. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
9. Nina Hoss, TÁR
10. Claire Foy, Women Talking

Known in the FYC industry for his expert Oscars predictions, Awards correspondent Dave Karger (who spent 17 years on staff at EW, writing over 50 cover stories) has made more than 200 live appearances on NBC's Today to talk movies and awards, and has co-hosted ABC's Live From the Red Carpet on Oscar night. Watch this space for his regularly updated rankings within the major categories.

Related content:

• Babylon's Margot Robbie, the contenders who are up (and down) in the Oscars race, and more in EW's The Awardist
• 2023 Oscars heat index: Top Gun soars, Olivia Colman takes a tumble
• Everything Everywhere All at Once leads 2023 Critics Choice Awards nominations