Dave Karger's 2023 Oscars predictions: Top Gun: Maverick is soaring upward

After weeks of nominations and awards from critics groups with virtually no overlap with the voting body of the Academy, we finally have several results from the guild awards to analyze. Since many guild-award voters also vote for the Oscars, the overall race is now coming into clearer focus. Here's where things stand now, with just days to go before the Oscar nominations.

Best Picture

My top six ranked films remain the same, but the second half of this year's mandated 10 nominees in the category are a bit murkier. Any of the films ranked seven through 12 (including the troubled Babylon, which did score a SAG ensemble nomination) could make it into the race.

1. The Fabelmans
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. Avatar: The Way of Water
6. TÁR
7. Elvis
8. Women Talking
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
11. Triangle of Sadness
12. Babylon

Best Director

The Directors Guild threw a wrench into this year's derby by including Top Gun: Maverick's Joseph Kosinski over Avatar: The Way of Water's James Cameron. If there's to be a surprise international filmmaker included, look for that slot to be filled either by Edward Berger or Ruben Östlund.

1. Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
2. Daniel Scheinert & Dan Kwan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field, TÁR
5. Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick
6. James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
7. Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
8. Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
9. Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
10. Sarah Polley, Women Talking

Best Actor

It's looking more and more like there are four locks here: Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, and Bill Nighy. The fifth nominee is anyone's guess: Tom Cruise and Paul Mescal scored Critics Choice nods, while the hard-campaigning Adam Sandler made the cut with the SAG Awards. I still think overall affection for Top Gun will lift Cruise into contention.

1. Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser, The Whale
3. Austin Butler, Elvis
4. Bill Nighy, Living
5. Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
6. Paul Mescal, Aftersun
7. Adam Sandler, Hustle
8. Hugh Jackman, The Son
9. Jeremy Pope, The Inspection
10. Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh are the only real sure things this year. SAG included Viola Davis and Danielle Deadwyler and added Ana de Armas over Michelle Williams. But don't count out the late-surging Andrea Riseborough, whose brilliant turn in To Leslie has become the toast of A-list Hollywood in the past couple weeks, just in time for the AMPAS ballots.

1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Viola Davis, The Woman King
4. Danielle Deadwyler, Till
5. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
6. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
7. Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
8. Ana de Armas, Blonde
9. Margot Robbie, Babylon
10. Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson and Ke Huy Quan remain the frontrunners here, while Paul Dano now seems the likeliest male nominee from the Fabelmans cast, although Judd Hirsch still stands a strong chance for his brief but unforgettable performance. The Critics Choice nominations, which usually match up decently with the Oscar nods, included pairs of actors from The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin. Along with Everything Everywhere comeback phenomenon Quan, they could end up comprising the entire roster.

1. Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
6. Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
7. Brad Pitt, Babylon
8. Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
9. Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
10. Jeremy Strong, Armageddon Time

Best Supporting Actress

The SAG Awards nominating committee made this already crowded category even more so by nominating The Whale's Hong Chau over contenders like Janelle Monáe and Jessie Buckley. Meanwhile, Angela Bassett's Golden Globe win (the first for any Marvel movie performance) lifts her closer to the top of the heap.

1. Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Janelle Monae, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
5. Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
6. Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
7. Hong Chau, The Whale
8. Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
9. Nina Hoss, TÁR
10. Claire Foy, Women Talking

Known in the FYC industry for his expert Oscars predictions, Awards correspondent Dave Karger (who spent 17 years on staff at EW, writing over 50 cover stories) has made more than 200 live appearances on NBC's Today to talk movies and awards, and has co-hosted ABC's Live From the Red Carpet on Oscar night. Watch this space for his regularly updated rankings within the major categories.

Related content:

• Val Kilmer celebrates 'perfect' Top Gun: Maverick cast for EW's 2022 Entertainers of the Year
• The Menu star Hong Chau was so convincing as a restaurant manager, she got offered a job
• Why Top Gun: Maverick starts exactly the same way as the original film