Dave Karger's 2023 Oscars predictions: Austin Butler is on the rise, post-BAFTAs

The Directors Guild of America (DGA) and British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) provided several major surprises over the past few days with their awards. So how might those results affect the major Academy Award races? Here are some updated predictions.

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All at Once

All Quiet on the Western Front, which had the most BAFTA nominations, was still something of a surprise Best Film winner. It certainly has an outside chance to upset at the Oscars, but without a Best Director nomination or any acting nods, it'll be tough. I'm sticking with Everything Everywhere All at Once for the win.

Best Director: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I've been wavering between the Daniels and The Fabelmans' Steven Spielberg for weeks now. But since the DGA and the Oscars have matched up in eight of the last nine years, the Daniels' big win at Saturday's DGA Awards seals the deal for me. They feel like 21st-century winners to me.

Best Actor: Austin Butler, Elvis

Before this weekend, I had Austin Butler ranked at No. 2 behind The Banshees of Inisherin's Colin Farrell. But his win at the BAFTAs, which have significant overlap with the Academy's voting body, indicates that his showier performance now has the edge.

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett, TÁR

I suppose there's still a chance for a Michelle Yeoh upset, but Cate Blanchett's BAFTA victory only puts her farther out ahead of the rest of the pack.

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once

I was truly surprised to see Barry Keoghan win the BAFTA for his delightful performance in The Banshees of Inisherin. But since fans of that film have two nominees from which to choose in this category (and potentially split the vote), I'm still going with Ke Huy Quan.

Best Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Banshees' Kerry Condon was a supremely deserving BAFTA winner. But let's remember that, by and large, BAFTA hasn't been kind to Black American actors. (Need I remind anybody that Denzel Washington has never been nominated once?) I still think Angela Bassett will win the SAG and the Oscar.

Known in the FYC industry for his expert Oscars predictions, Awards correspondent Dave Karger (who spent 17 years on staff at EW, writing over 50 cover stories) has made more than 200 live appearances on NBC's Today to talk movies and awards, and has co-hosted ABC's Live From the Red Carpet on Oscar night. Watch this space for his regularly updated rankings within the major categories.

Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights leading up to all the major award shows.

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