2022 SAG Award winner predictions: Succession, Ted Lasso, Will Smith and King Richard should prevail

From a fashionable family, greedy ranchers, and the desperately-in-debt to true-crime lovers-turned-podcasters, Hollywood legends, and scheming royals, the casts of this year's movie and TV drama and comedy ensemble nominees brought to life some of the most talked-about characters of the year, ones audiences won't soon forget. They've also made it tough for SAG-AFTRA voters to pick. But here's who we think will hear their names called when the envelopes are opened at the 28th annual Screen Actors Guild Awards.

FILM

Motion Picture Cast

Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
House of Gucci
King Richard

Always a tough category to read, this award can go to serious actor-centric showcases (Spotlight, The Trial of the Chicago 7), supercharged foreign entries (Slumdog Millionaire, Parasite), and popular hits alike (Black Panther, Inglourious Basterds). If King Richard or CODA were ever going to make a move, it's now. Then again, the Don't Look Up cast — loaded with A-listers having an apocalyptic ball — is exactly the kind of ensemble Hollywood dreams of putting to work. If that comet crashes SAG's party, it's time to start bracing for the actual end of the world (i.e., a potential Best Picture upset for Don't Look Up on Oscar night). —Joshua Rothkopf
WINNER: King Richard
SPOILER: Don't Look Up

Male Actor in a Leading Role — Motion Picture

Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick... Boom!
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Performances with size and grandeur often prevail here: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody), and Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) all locked in wins on their eventual road to the Oscar podium. Denzel Washington's turn in The Tragedy of Macbeth may be too subtle, so we like the Fresh Prince for this. —JR
WINNER: Will Smith
SPOILER: Benedict Cumberbatch

Female Actor in a Leading Role — Motion Picture

Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Lady Gaga, House of Gucci
Jennifer Hudson, Respect
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Two of these nominees, Lady Gaga and Jennifer Hudson, aren't even Oscar-nominated, and a believable narrative can be supplied for any of the five to prevail. Additionally, none of their films are rousing popular favorites, making the picture harder to read. We'll go with the most acting. —JR
WINNER: Nicole Kidman
SPOILER: Lady Gaga

Male Actor in a Supporting Role — Motion Picture

Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar
Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, House of Gucci
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Kodi Smit-McPhee looks to cement his front-runner status (held for months). If a horse race were to suddenly materialize, it would center on the surging Troy Kotsur, who'd make history as the first deaf actor to win an individual award — he's already the first to be nominated. —JR
WINNER: Kodi Smit-McPhee
SPOILER: Troy Kotsur

Female Actor in a Supporting Role — Motion Picture

Caitríona Balfe, Belfast
Cate Blanchett, Nightmare Alley
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Ruth Negga, Passing

Vote-splitting had to be the reason Belfast's Caitríona Balfe didn't make the final Oscar bracket (Judi Dench somehow appeared instead), and Balfe's presence here makes her a real contender. Still, Ariana DeBose's electrifying performance has unstoppable legs — she'll go the distance. —JR
WINNER: Ariana DeBose
SPOILER: Caitríona Balfe

Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Black Widow
Dune
The Matrix Resurrections
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

Superhero movies dominate here (even ridiculous ones, like Wonder Woman 1984) and we see no reason for that trend to elapse. Plus, Shang-Chi had legitimately excellent fight choreography. Only a voter nostalgic for the return of The Matrix saga, so influential in terms of stunt work, can potentially scuttle this. —JR
WINNER: Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
SPOILER: The Matrix Resurrections

TELEVISION

Drama Series Ensemble

The Handmaid's Tale
The Morning Show
Squid Game
Succession
Yellowstone

Just when viewers thought Elisabeth Moss & Co. had endured enough on The Handmaid's Tale, along came season 4; this time it was about who could (and couldn't) endure them. No doubt one of the best group of actors on TV, they aren't the ones to beat (though that finale deserves an award for…something. Anything.) While The Morning Show welcomed Julianna Margulies into the newsroom, and — spoiler alert — drove Steve Carell off a cliff, Jennifer Aniston, Reese Witherspoon, and the a.m. team kept up with this show's manic pace, for better or worse. And then there's the Dutton clan from the überpopular Yellowstone, which landed its first major award nomination here. The basic-cable series transcended the streaming clutter, but it won't score its first time at the rodeo. Succession delivered a new season of event television with its merry cast of narcissists and power-hungry weasels. If Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong, Sarah Snook, Kieran Culkin, and the rest of the f---ed-up bunch aren't the best drama ensemble, I don't know what is. Oh, wait: Squid Game. The violence! The drama! The intrigue! The cast! How the ensemble of Netflix's Korean drama was able to ground the larger-than-life theatrics of the life-and-death competition is a true feat. In this game of tug of awards, Squid Game has a great strategy, but Succession will likely pick up its first SAG win here. —Gerrad Hall
WINNER: Succession
SPOILER: Squid Game

Comedy Series Ensemble

The Great
Hacks
The Kominsky Method
Only Murders in the Building
Ted Lasso

The title of The Great sums up the work of its large cast: Elle Fanning, Nicholas Hoult, and the rest of this royal court masterfully deliver the wonderfully absurd dialogue while decked out in period attire on this take of Catherine the Great. Is it enough to win? No. Same goes for Michael Douglas, Paul Reiser, Kathleen Turner, and the other terrific talents in the final season of Netflix's The Kominsky Method. Steve Martin, Martin Short, and Selena Gomez are the new (and most unlikely) three amigos, leading a delightful ensemble on Only Murders in the Building. They really killed it. And let's be honest, the true crime here is that it took so long for the comedy veterans to grace our screens again. While they solved the mystery at the heart of the first season, they won't be as successful here. Because it truly comes down to two comedies: reigning champ Ted Lasso and the freshman comedy Hacks. While the latter boasts a stellar cast headlined by lead-actress nominee Jean Smart (who scored the most nominations of any actor this year, with three), it doesn't have the true ensemble power of Ted (even if Hacks' first season is better than Ted's second — but this isn't about the writing). The Ted team — including individual nominees Jason Sudeikis, Brett Goldstein, Hannah Waddingham, and Juno Temple — is truly that: a team. And a damn good one, taking viewers on a roller coaster of emotions. We believe they can score another goal victory. —GH
WINNER: Ted Lasso
SPOILER: Hacks

Male Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

Murray Bartlett, The White Lotus
Oscar Isaac, Scenes From a Marriage
Michael Keaton, Dopesick
Ewan McGregor, Halston
Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown

What. A. Category. Evan Peters and Ewan McGregor both won Emmys for these performances, but there's no denying the phenomenal work by the other three men here (who will be eligible for Emmys this year): actors love Oscar Isaac, and his work in Marriage is next level; Michael Keaton was the heart and soul of the infuriating Dopesick; a win by Murray Bartlett for his showy but multi-faceted performance that put him on the map and made him the talk not just of the town but America wouldn't be unmerited (and — @ me, it's fine — who I think should win). But this seems to be a super-sized battle between Batman and Quicksilver... the guild loves Keaton, who has just enough edge to land him his fourth Actor trophy. —GH
WINNER: Michael Keaton
SPOILER: Murray Bartlett

Female Actor in a TV Movie or Miniseries

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Cynthia Erivo, Genius
Margaret Qualley, Maid
Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown
Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown

Margaret Qualley and Cynthia Erivo gave can't-miss performances in their series (and let's be honest, you should never miss an opportunity to hear Erivo sing!). We love ourselves some Jean Smart, but this category isn't where her name will be called. This one really comes down to her on-screen daughter, Kate Winslet, and wonderfully eccentric Jennifer Coolidge, who stole every scene she was in on The White Lotus. While she's been gaining some traction, this one seems like another Win-slet for her transformative and steely yet emotional performance. —GH
WINNER: Kate Winslet
SPOILER: Jennifer Coolidge

Male Actor in a Drama Series

Brian Cox, Succession
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Kieran Culkin, Succession
Lee Jung-jae, Squid Game
Jeremy Strong, Succession

The battle on screen is now a battle at the SAG Awards between father and sons, with triple Succession nominees Brian Cox, Jeremy Strong, and Kieran Culkin. Could they split the vote? Sure. In which case, Squid Game's leading man Lee Jung-jae takes the win (life imitating art?). But as much as Cox is a master at mind-trickery and unpredictability, Strong will be flexing with a victory here. —GH
WINNER: Jeremy Strong
SPOILER: Brian Cox

Female Actor in a Drama Series

Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show
Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid's Tale
Sarah Snook, Succession
HoYeon Jung, Squid Game
Reese Witherspoon, The Morning Show

Sarah Snook. That's all. —GH
WINNER: Sarah Snook
SPOILER: Jennifer Aniston

Male Actor in a Comedy Series

Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso

Here's another tough one where a really good supporting actor, Brett Goldstein, is wrapped up in a category with lead performances. Steve Martin is very strong on Murders — he gave a masterclass in physical comedy on the season finale that is worthy of all the awards. Alas, this is Jason Sudeikis' to lose. —GH
WINNER: Jason Sudeikis
SPOILER: Steve Martin

Female Actor in a Comedy Series

Elle Fanning, The Great
Sandra Oh, The Chair
Jean Smart, Hacks
Juno Temple, Ted Lasso
Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso

Look, I can't get enough of Hannah Waddingham and I perk up every time she's on screen. I love what Ted Lasso has done in sharing her incredible talents with the world and can't wait to see all of these other projects she's booked. But Jean Smart does things in Hacks that many actors watch and wish they could do just half as well. She can make you laugh or empathize with her one second and fear her the next. She was meant to play this role...and she's meant to be on the SAG Awards stage to pick up her first win from her peers. —GH
WINNER: Jean Smart
SPOILER: Hannah Waddingham

Stunt Ensemble in a TV Series

Cobra Kai
The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
Loki
Mare of Easttown
Squid Game

Action and stunts are part of the DNA of a show about karate...and there's lots of great work in Cobra Kai. Superhero series are hard to beat, no question about it. And Kate Winslet was put through it in Mare. But all of the action on Squid Game was built around a series of mostly physical games, and that incredible team should emerge as the last ones standing. —GH
WINNER: Squid Game
SPOILER: Cobra Kai

The winners of the stunt categories will be announced on the PEOPLE and Entertainment Weekly live red carpet pre-show, which kicks off at 2:30 p.m. PT/5:30 p.m. ET. Tune in on multiple platforms, including EW.com, PeopleTV, PEOPLE.com, and the social channels for PEOPLE, EW, and PeopleTV.

The 28th SAG Awards winners will be announced live on TNT and TBS on Sunday, Feb. 27 at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.

Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights from the year's best films.

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