Tag: Russia

Russia is Playing Black

But I’m not entirely sure that Clown World is even playing chess. It looks a lot more like checkers to me.

In the conversation between Russia and the United States, a certain readable language has emerged that can be read and understood. The sequence of steps and actions is this language: everything has a clear meaning. This makes it possible to understand what both sides are trying to achieve and to state that such a language of gestures is still readable and that the situation has not collapsed into chaos.

Thus, we see a clear desire on the part of the West to drive Russia into an escalation algorithm favorable to NATO. This is a protracted war of attrition against our country, waged exclusively with conventional weapons, for which NATO has the potential for quantitative and/or qualitative advantage. Even in those weapons where Russia has a predominance, NATO is trying to compensate for the situation with the combined use of other means of attack.

Russia is signaling that it sees this scenario and is conducting TNW deployment exercises, albeit without loading warheads. This is a warning that there is a counter-scenario and that the West will not be able to impose its war plan.

The West immediately responds with strikes on Russian missile warning system (MWS) radar stations near Armavir and Orenburg, with a simultaneous attack on an antenna in Crimea, also used for this purpose. So far, this is only a demonstration. But the West has outlined the trajectories of future strikes and made it clear that it is capable of attacking Russia’s SPRN in a combined and serial manner, if Russia develops the topic of TNWs, rather than continuing the war according to the NATO plan by conventional means, where the West expects to realize its resource advantage.

At the same time, Russia is being given to understand that the West sees the problem of manning the AFU and is preparing to introduce contingents of NATO countries into Ukraine. NATO intends to block Russian intentions to block this build-up with TNWs by denoting its ability to blind our Strategic Nuclear Forces. This, according to the West, should force Russia to give up its strong trump card and accept an ultimatum in the fall, the text of which will be approved in Switzerland in June.

At the same time, the West is conducting exercises to launch nuclear attacks near our borders. The pressure on the Russian leadership is exerted on all fronts, in combination. Preparedness for nuclear attacks, counting on internal instability, demonstrating readiness to expand escalation without restrictions – this is the language the West is now using with Russia. The goal is to convince the Russian leadership that it is impossible to inflict unacceptable damage on the West and surrender.

Before us is a chess game where Russia is playing Black. Her strategy is built in relation to White’s strategy. The opening is over, the exchange phase (middlegame) has begun. White shows that he is ready to throw pieces off the board and move to a fight. Black shows that it will cost White a lot.

The strategy of the West is a penned hunt, the strategy of Russia is a hunt for the hunter. These strategies are 200 years old, they are constant and are now being repeated. The West understands only real answers, it will not stop until it has tried everything. Russia will have to respond in kind. It’s about where Ukraine’s borders will be drawn and how the new balance of power in Europe will be formed.

What I find so astonishingly bizarre about the mainstream coverage of the Ukraine situation is the way in which it is always discussed in complete isolation from everything else going on in WWIII. Yes, it’s true that Russia might well struggle if forced to face the combined might of Clown World alone – which is the USA, the UK, the EU, and Japan – but Russia is not alone! Russia is very far from alone, being more closely allied to China than Japan or any of the European satrapies are to the USA.

Defense Minister Minoru Kihara conveyed Tokyo’s “serious concern” about Beijing’s increased military activity near Japan during talks with his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun on Saturday, while both agreed to maintain bilateral dialogue, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry. In their first meeting held on the sidelines of the annual Asia Security Summit in Singapore, known as the Shangri-La Dialogue, Kihara said there are “many security concerns” for the two Asian nations, such as a territorial row in the East China Sea and increased joint military activities by Beijing and Russia around Japan.

Only the UK is tied to the USA by more than threats and political corruption, and both the combined demographics and industrial capacity of the BRICSIA alliance far surpasses that of Clown World. Indeed, I think that the event the Chinese are waiting for prior to their next major move, whatever that may be, is either a) a NATO attack on Russia or b) a massive Russian offensive aimed at knocking Kiev out of the war.

Remember, for all its careful harboring of its resources in the current Special Military Operation, the 20th Century Russians specialized in the Zhukovian art of unexpectedly delivering overwhelming force on a scale larger than anything the West has ever known.

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Will NATO Go All In?

Ukraine has been defeated. And NATO has been defeated in Ukraine. The proxy war is essentially over. The question now is if Clown World will accept defeat and all the consequences it entails, or whether it will provoke a direct war with Russia:

Ukraine is at a crossroads and a potential breaking point. The political situation has hit rock bottom, with Zelensky’s authority and legitimacy quickly unspooling; the manpower issue is reportedly very bad and is not being addressed by the newly announced mobilization; and on top of all that, Russia appears on the brink of opening up another in a series of new fronts that could bring the AFU to the brink by stretching the lines like never before.

Here’s where the ominous signs begin.

There are increasing signals that the covert plan from the globalist controllers is to get Ukraine to leave Russia with no choice but to escalate drastically and bring NATO in some form, whether limited or not, into the fight. Ex-British MP Andrew Bridgen stated that this is the real reason why Rishi Sunak has called an early election—he refuses to be a ‘war time president’.

My perception is that cooler heads will ultimately prevail, simply because both the Middle East front and the Asian front are more important to Clown World if it prioritizes its survival rather than its continued global rule. But there is no guarantee that the longer-sighted parties will make the decisions, and indeed, there is a case to be made by the nationalist side that a conclusive global war might be preferable to putting things off until World War IV.

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European States Recognize Palestine

What’s considerably more significant is the fact that the Chinese and Russians are publicly hailing the three recognitions of the sovereign Palestinian state:

In a historic move expected to quell the flames of war in the Middle East, Ireland, Norway and Spain announced the recognition of a Palestinian state on Wednesday. The move is hailed by Chinese experts as representing an overdue correction of “a previously skewed balance,” while bringing the Palestinian question, which had intentionally been obscured before, back to the center stage.

Experts believe the decision may trigger a global wave of recognition for the state of Palestine, not only in support of the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people but it will also exert significant international pressure on Israel’s aggressive practices.

However, they noted that there is still a long way to go for the actual establishment of a Palestinian state, and the root of the problem preventing the realization of the two-State solution lies in the bias and indulgence of the US.

None of this is actually about the lands historically taken by force from the Palestinians, of course, anymore than the war in Ukraine is about who rules over Kiev. But it’s another front in the global war between Clown World and the sovereign nations.

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An Inept Defense

Word magic doesn’t work for domestic abusers and it’s certainly not going to work for wartime belligerents:

Switzerland’s neutrality remains unchanged, the country’s foreign ministry has insisted ahead of the peace conference on the Ukraine conflict next month. Russia has accused Bern of effectively siding with the West and Kiev in the current confrontation, making it an unfit mediator…

On Friday, Reuters quoted a Swiss foreign ministry representative as stressing that Bern’s neutrality is “constant” and will not be affected by the summit on June 15-16. The statement noted, however, that “being neutral does not mean being indifferent.”

“Switzerland strongly condemns Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Outside the military realm, the right to neutrality does not stand in the way of solidarity and support for Ukraine and its people,” the ministry clarified, as quoted by Reuters.

Despite not being a member of either the EU or NATO, Switzerland has supported the West’s sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine. Last month, the country’s national agency overseeing sanctions revealed that Bern was holding an estimated 13 billion francs ($14.3 billion) in Russian assets, which remain frozen in its financial institutions.

It’s certainly a fascinating attempt to deny the undeniable. It’s rather like a domestic abuser admitting that he repeatedly punched his wife in the mouth and pushed her down the stairs, but nevertheless insisting that he never abused her. You can’t sanction and strongly condemn another state and still claim to be neutral.

It’s not only inept diplomacy, it’s flat-out false, as even a cursory glance at a thesaurus will prove. The fact is that “being neutral” quite literally does mean “being indifferent.”

neutral

adjective as in impartial, noncommittal

Strongest matches

  • disinterested
  • inactive
  • indifferent
  • uninvolved

“Indifferent” is precisely what “neutral” means.

Regardless, the important thing about neutrality is that the neutral party’s opinion of itself doesn’t matter in the slightest. If either party feels you’re taking the other party’s side, then you’re obviously not going to be recognized as a neutral. And if your partiality is obvious to everyone, then you have eliminated yourself from consideration for any role requiring a neutral party. It’s frankly shocking that the Swiss diplomats would prove to be so inept in this regard, although given the fact that plans for a Swiss Army knife without an actual blade have been announced, it’s very much in line with Clown World’s inverted approach to reality.

What’s next, an announcement that Swiss chocolate will hitherto be cocoa-free?

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“Enough,” said the Bear

The UK is rapidly approaching the “find out” zone:

Moscow will retaliate against British targets in Ukraine or elsewhere if Kiev uses UK-provided missiles to strike Russian territory, the Foreign Ministry told London’s ambassador on Monday. Ambassador Nigel Casey was summoned to the ministry following remarks by British Foreign Secretary David Cameron to Reuters that Ukraine has the right to use long-range missiles sent by the UK to strike deep inside Russia.

”Casey was warned that the response to Ukrainian strikes using British weapons on Russian territory could be any British military facilities and equipment on the territory of Ukraine and beyond,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement following the meeting.

Ukraine does have the right. And so does Russia. What we’re seeing here are clear and present signs that Russia is now ready for direct conflict with NATO, in Ukraine, in Europe, and in the Americas.

I guess we’re going to find out just how stupid the clowns running Clown World really are. The problem is that they’re so accustomed to lying and bluffing all the time, they don’t recognize a straightforward warning when one is provided.

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The End Approaches

Simplicius considers the implications of Russia putting the unelected dictator of the Kiev regime on its wanted list:

The most interesting development surrounds the Kremlin having designated Zelensky himself—as well as several other top Ukrainian officials and generals—as “wanted”, though oddly enough, the precise legal reason is unclear and not listed on the Russian Interior Ministry’s site.

The most immediate repercussions of this are:

  • Russia may be sending a signal and setting the groundwork for the revocation of any “peace deals” with Zelensky, as placing him on the wanted list ensures that the Russian state cannot legally parley with a wanted criminal.
  • Even more darkly, it potentially sets the stage for Russia to eliminate him following his total loss of legitimacy on May 21st, when the Ukrainian presidential inauguration would have taken place.

As to the first point, there have been a lot of signals from both the West and Ukraine itself about coming back to another ‘negotiations’ within the Istanbul mode, particularly given the upcoming global ‘Peace Summit’ in Switzerland on June 15th. Russia may be sending the West a message that no matter what they come up with during this summit, it will be impossible to treat with a man considered not only illegitimate but even a wanted criminal at the state level.

One of the other interesting things in Simplicius’s article is a reference to Russian prisoners being held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. First, the prisoner ratio is 3.45:1, which implies that the Ukrainian casualties over the course of the operation have been more than three times that of the Russian forces. Second, and more importantly, only 13.8 percent of the Russian prisoners are actually Russian. 86.2 percent are described as “separatists”, which proves exactly what I have been pointing out from the start: the Russians have been mostly saving their professional military forces for the potential conflict with NATO and relying heavily upon the Novorossiyan militias, with support from the Russian army’s air and artillery, to defeat the Ukrainian armies.

And recall that a fair number of those “Russian” prisoners are quite likely prison-mercenaries from Wagner and the other private companies or Chechen light infantry. In fact, the initial blitz attempt on Kiev had a heavy complement of Chechen fighters, who were ultimately driven back from Bucha.

This suggests that if the Russian generals decide to utilize their own ground forces in one of the expected summer offensives, the results might be considerably more negative for the Kiev regime than is commonly anticipated. Meanwhile, the Russians also appear to be stepping up their warnings to the NATO regimes propping up their Clown World counterpart in Kiev.

A blaze has engulfed a plant in Berlin belonging to German arms manufacturer Diehl, the local fire department has reported. The company produces the IRIS-T air defense system, several units of which the German government has supplied to Ukraine since late 2022.

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An Unconscionable Hope

A lieutenant colonel from the 2nd Armored Cav tells the Council on Foreign Relations that it is time for Ukraine – and its Clown World masters – to surrender to Russia, because there is no path to military victory and absolutely no chance that they will ever succeed in their war against Russia.

I have 20-something years of military experience, four combat deployments. I fought in a large tank battle in Desert Storm with the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment. We also served time on the east-west border in Germany, where we had to patrol against the potential onslaught of the Soviet Union coming in. So I had to actually study the Soviet doctrine, their tanks, the way they fight, the way they do offense, the way they do defense, in terrain very similar to what’s going on in Ukraine right now. I was also the second-in-command of an armored cav squadron for the U.S. 1st Armored Division in the mid-2000s.

Believe me when I tell you there is no chance that Ukraine will ever succeed in its war against Russia. There is no path to military victory for Ukraine, period. It doesn’t matter if we give $60 billion. It doesn’t matter if we give another $120 billion, $200 billion. It’s not going to make any difference, because the fundamentals that go in to build combat power at the national level are decisively and irrevocably on the Russian side. You cannot buy your way into this situation where you can turn the tables because you can’t undo the fundamentals.

The air power on the Russian side is overwhelmingly and irrevocably on the Russian side. Air defense, thei military industrial capacity to be able to crank out large numbers of artillery ammunition, the weapons themselves, the drones, electronic warfare, and most importantly of all, the people. Russia has more people and they will always have more people, and it’s throughout the West. They will never be able to match what happens on the other side.

In my view, it is unconscionable to continue hoping against hope that the Ukraine side can win if we just give a little bit more cash, because it won’t work out that way.

I’ve been saying the same thing since before the Special Military Operation launched in February 2022. So has anyone with a sufficient grasp of both economics and military history. The only reason Ukraine has lasted as long as it has is because a) Russia elected to switch to an attritional strategy after its initial attempt at a rapid decapitation strike failed in order to preserve its military manpower and b) NATO constructed two additional armies to replace the original Ukrainian army after it was destroyed.

The army that is now more than twice-decimated and in desperate need of a nationwide mobilization to prevent it from collapsing is the THIRD Ukrainian army of the war. Few yet understand that the extent of the losses to Ukraine is already more severe than the generational losses England suffered in the first and second world wars.

Unfortunately, as we have been told by more than a few conspiracy analysts, Ukraine is the Deep State, and Clown World does not care how many innocent people it has to sacrifice to try to save itself. Unless and until Putin and Xi start striking at the parties responsible for unnecessarily prolonging the war, or the UFA flat-out refuses to fight anymore, I don’t see how it will be possible for the Ukrainian people to save themselves by surrendering.

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Nothing Will Stop the Fall

Of Clown World. Its collapse is absolutely inevitable:

The arrival of the US M1A1 Abrams tanks in Ukraine was hailed as a turning point in the war. Coming in at roughly $10 million a unit, the Nato stalwart was supposed to provide the armoured fist that would punch through the Russian lines. But tactics evolve quickly in warfare, and Russia’s use of surveillance and hunter-killer drones has led to heavy casualties for Ukraine’s tank fleets. This is alarming for NATO. If Russia has found critical vulnerabilities in our armour, our borders are beginning to look very vulnerable.

Washington pledged 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine in January last year. The first batch arrived in September. They finally appeared to make their combat debut in February this year, with the first video footage released on the 25th of Februray. On the 26th, the Russians scored their first Abrams kill.

Two months after entering service, the Abrams tanks are now being withdrawn from the frontline. Five of the 31 tanks delivered last year have already been destroyed.

Everything Clown World does is based on the concept of “fake it ’til you make it”. But no amount of rhetoric, chutzpah, and word spells trumps physical reality, because influence is not power. Everything the clowns say is a lie. Literally everything.

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And Here… We… Go

JP Morgan just lost all of the funds it was holding in its bank accounts in Russia:

A Russian court has ordered the seizure of funds in JPMorgan Chase accounts in Russia, court filings showed on Wednesday, in a lawsuit filed by state-owned bank VTB as it seeks to regain funds blocked abroad. JP Morgan Chase last week sued VTB in New York to halt its efforts to recover $439.5 million from an account that was blocked after Russia despatched its army to Ukraine in 2022 and VTB was hit with sanctions.

The Arbitration Court of St Petersburg and the Leningrad Region’s ruling was dated April 22.

The court said it had ordered the seizure of all funds in JP Morgan bank accounts in Russia, including correspondent accounts and those opened in the name of a subsidiary. The court said it had not seized securities and property held by JP Morgan funds, or the jpmorgan.ru domain. In a complaint filed in federal court in Manhattan earlier this month, JPMorgan described VTB’s attempt to recover the money in Russia as a “blatant breach” of its agreement to have disputes addressed in New York.

The largest U.S. bank said U.S. law prohibits it from releasing the $439.5 million, and VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, will try to seize its assets abroad if it prevails in the Russia lawsuit. It said VTB’s prospects there were good, with Russian courts having granted at least six other Russian banks relief against U.S. and European banks that were required to comply with sanctions laws.

Neither Russia nor China care in the least what U.S. law prohibits anymore. The international system ended the moment sanctions were applied to Russia after the beginning of the special military operation and nothing is going to bring it back.

Pax Americana is over. Plan accordingly.

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What Leverage is That?

Clown World’s strategists appear to be increasingly deluded concerning the arts of the possible with regards to the NATO-Russian war:

The war is not trending toward a stable stalemate, but toward Ukraine’s eventual collapse.  Russia has corrected many of the problems that plagued its forces during the first year of fighting and adopted an attrition strategy that is gradually exhausting Ukraine’s forces, draining American military stocks, and sapping the West’s political resolve. Sanctions have not crippled Russia’s war effort, and the West cannot fix Ukraine’s acute manpower problems absent direct intervention in the war.  Ukraine’s best hope lies in a negotiated settlement that protects its security, minimizes the risks of renewed attacks or escalation, and promotes broader stability in Europe and the world.   

Skeptics counter that Russia has no incentive to make meaningful concessions in a war it is increasingly winning.  But this belief underestimates the gap between what Russia can accomplish through its own military efforts and what it needs to ensure its broader security and economic prosperity over the longer term.  Russia can probably achieve some of its war aims by force, including blocking Ukraine’s membership in NATO and capturing much of the territory it regards as historically and culturally Russian.  But Russia cannot conquer, let alone govern, the majority of Ukraine, nor can Russia secure itself against the ongoing threats of Ukrainian sabotage or potential NATO strikes absent a costly permanent military buildup that would undermine its civilian economy. Reducing the deep dependence on China created by the invasion will also sooner or later require Russia to seek some form of détente with the West.  

As a result, the United States has significant leverage for bringing Russia to the table and forging verifiable agreements to end the fighting.  

As Andrei Martyanov points out, this particular analyst is talking out of both sides of his mouth. If, as he correctly says, Ukraine is on an inevitable path toward collapse, then Russia obviously can conquer, and if it chooses, occupy the entirety of the terrain over which the Kremlin ruled for eight decades. It’s obvious that Putin has no desire to do so, but it’s equally obvious that he will do so if Clown World continues to use the poor Ukrainians as an increasingly battered sword against a resurgent Russia.

And while the Chinese alliance is important to Russia, it is not why Russia has survived the economic attack on it nor have the Chinese provided any substantial material military support to Russia. Russia is serving as China’s proxy on the military front, except that unlike NATO’s Ukrainian proxy, Russia doesn’t need any assistance because when it comes to military technology and expertise, it is the Russians who are the senior partner.

In fact, it is the alliance of Russian military technology and expertise with Chinese economic power and industrial capacity that indicates the high probability of Clown World’s eventual defeat. Throw in the massive quantities of natural resources in Russia and the other BRICS nations, and one would be tempted to declare the conflict as over before it even starts, were it not for the vagaries of history that render any such preliminary verdict foolish.

After all, who foresaw the withdrawal of the Turks from the gates of Vienna, or the sudden retreat of the Mongol hordes from Europe and Russia upon the unexpected death of the Khan? We don’t know if either Putin or Xi have competent successors selected and prepared to step up and complete their national missions, just as we don’t know how much longer the USA and the European nations can withstand the centrifugal demographics that have been inserted into their rapidly degenerating societies.

But it is clear that the current phase is quickly approaching its endgame. Whether that will be via a reasonable surrender and settlement or by a classic Zhukovian Manchurian mega-offensive cannot be known, except that to say that the longer the former is delayed, the more likely the latter becomes. Either way, the war will not end in Ukraine.

We are not approaching the end, only the end of the beginning.

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