Tag: technology

How Civilization Ends

Tucker Goodrich is not optimistic, based on his experience with working on engines and machine shops.

Due to the dwindling supply of quality machine shops and very poor quality aftermarket parts as well as a lack of people interested in learning the engine building and machine shop trades, I regret to inform our many followers and current as well as past customers that we will no longer be taking on any new engine build orders unless it is for a car we are restoring. Since Covid, we have had to do rework on multiple engine builds due to poorly manufactured parts that failed during break in or machine work that was below our standards due to all the old farts like me dying off with no younger workers interested in taking their place. For example, rod bearings are now made too thin resulting in 390 and 401 crank grinds needing to be ground .0085, .0185 or .0285 under standard rod journal size yet all but one machine shop in the entire Phoenix area refused to do anything other than the standard .010, .020 or .030 grinds. Even worse, when the one shop that will grind the cranks the way we tell them we need them loses their crank grinder to retirement in another year or two, they do not plan to replace him. Machine work that used to have a turnaround of 2-3 weeks now takes a minimum of 2-4 months due to an acute lack of people interested in learning machine work and doing manual physical labor. In fact, one engine block was at a machine shop for a year and when we got it back hey did such a poor sleeve job in one cylinder that it was not even useable so it is now a 250 lb paper weight…

What used to take a couple of weeks to get back from a machine shop can easily now take 2-4 months or more resulting in our overall engine backlog now being 15-18 months. The bottom line is that custom engine building is on its way to becoming extinct and it won’t be too many more years before all of us old farts that currently do this work either retire and/or die off resulting in engine building within the collector car hobby becoming nearly impossible to find. And when you do find someone, don’t be surprised if they are backed out 2+ years or more and that they only want to do Chevy builds and know zero about our beloved AMC engines. “The times they are a changin’.”

I can attest to this problem of civilizational and technological decline. We’re installing a new machine in the bindery today. It’s a machine from 1961, and we bought it because it should work much better for our purposes than the new machine we bought in 2022.

If you’re looking for work, or to launch a business, you should probably look very hard at the opportunities in the machine shop area. Because it’s not just the car collectors who need metal parts machined.

DISCUSS ON SG

AI vs Biologists

In an attempt to make the subject easier for people to understand, a programmer ran MITTENS through ChatGPT, and despite the usual issues and very generous assumptions of tiny populations and high fixation probabilities, the results tend to demonstrate why biologists will have to avoid MITTENS as long as they possibly can in order to continue clinging to their outdated and disproven assumptions about the origin of the species. Somewhat amusingly, the AI did not provide a final answer in terms of the range of times required for fixation given its estimates and assumptions, but contented itself with saying that a population-wide fixation could perhaps happen eventually, in theory, given a sufficiently beneficial mutation.

This AI-generated summary usefully points the way toward filling in the various blanks that would permit a full fixation simulator to provide valid answers when prompted with the relevant variables that can be derived from existing genetic studies, such as observed selection coefficients and drift factors. Interestingly enough, even the analogy of the simplified explanation demonstrates the implausibility of the fixations required for every human to possess the same human-specific genes sans a mechanism far more akin to IGM than TE(p)NSBMGDaGF.

As it turns out, the AI is effectively “smarter” than the biologists, because unlike biologists like JFG and Richard Dawkins, the AI “comprehends” that the mathematical challenges posed are both relevant and real.

Simplified Explanation for Non-Mathematicians

Think of mutation and fixation in genetics akin to introducing a new smartphone model and observing how quickly it becomes the only model used by everyone. Mutation rate is like the frequency of new model launches, while fixation rate is like observing how quickly each new model becomes the dominant one used by the public. Selective events are like market conditions that favor the rapid adoption of certain models over others (e.g., a significant technological advancement).

Understanding Fixation Rate with an Example

The fixation rate in a population genetics context refers to the frequency at which a particular mutation becomes present in every individual of a population, effectively replacing all other versions of that gene. Let’s break down the concept of fixation rate using a simplified example.

Example: Introducing a Beneficial Mutation in a Small Population

Imagine a small population of 1000 butterflies. A mutation occurs in one butterfly that makes its wings brighter, potentially giving it a better chance of avoiding predators.

Step 1: Mutation Occurs

  • Initial mutation: One butterfly develops a mutation for brighter wings.
  • Population size (N): 1000 butterflies.
  • Number of mutants at the start (m): 1.

Step 2: Determine Fixation Probability

For a beneficial mutation, the fixation probability can be higher than that of a neutral mutation. If we assume this mutation offers a slight survival advantage, let’s denote the selection coefficient by 𝑠s, where 𝑠s is small, say 0.01 (1%).

The fixation probability (𝑃P) for beneficial mutations can be approximated using the formula:

𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)≈2𝑠1−𝑒−4𝑁𝑠P(fixation)≈1−e−4Ns2s​

Plugging in our numbers:

  • 𝑁=1000 (population size),
  • 𝑠=0.01 (selection advantage).

𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)≈2×0.011−𝑒−4×1000×0.01P(fixation)≈1−e−4×1000×0.012×0.01​ 𝑃(𝑓𝑖𝑥𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛)≈0.021−𝑒−40P(fixation)≈1−e−400.02​

Since 𝑒−40e−40 is a very small number close to zero, the formula simplifies to:

Step 3: Calculate the Fixation Rate

The fixation rate involves how quickly this mutation spreads through the entire population until it becomes the only variant present. This rate not only depends on the fixation probability but also on factors like the generation time and population dynamics. If the mutation indeed confers a survival advantage, and given that the probability of fixation is about 2%, it implies that in favorable conditions, it might eventually spread to the entire population.

Step 4: Observing the Outcome

  • Generational time: Assuming each butterfly generation spans one year.
  • Over many generations, we observe whether the mutation spreads and reaches fixation (where all 1000 butterflies have the mutation) or is lost due to drift or other factors.

Key Takeaways

  • Fixation Probability: Even with a beneficial mutation, the probability of fixation isn’t guaranteed but is significantly higher than for neutral mutations. In our example, there’s a 2% chance the beneficial mutation will fixate in the population.
  • Impact of Population Size: Larger populations may see a slower spread of mutations due to their sheer size and genetic diversity.
  • Role of Selection Coefficient: A higher 𝑠s value (greater advantage conferred by the mutation) increases the probability of fixation.

DISCUSS ON SG

Damn the Drones, Full Speed… RETREAT!

The French navy has been defeated by the Yemenis in the Battle of the Red Sea:

France’s Aquitaine-class FREMM frigate Alsace has turned tail from the Red Sea after running out of missiles and munitions repelling attacks from the Yemeni armed forces, according to its commander, Jerome Henry.

“We didn’t necessarily expect this level of threat. There was an uninhibited violence that was quite surprising and very significant. [The Yemenis] do not hesitate to use drones that fly at water level, to explode them on commercial ships, and to fire ballistic missiles,” Henry told French news outlet Le Figaro in an exclusive interview published on 11 April.

“We had to carry out at least half a dozen assistances following [Yemeni] strikes,” he added.

The commander of the Alsace also revealed that, after a 71-day deployment, all combat equipment was depleted.

“From the Aster missile to the 7.62 machine gun of the helicopter, including the 12.7mm, 20mm, or 76mm cannon, we dealt with three ballistic missiles and half a dozen drones,” Henry adds.

According to the French commander, the Franco–Italian Aster missile – each carrying a price tag of up to $2 million – “was pushed to its limits” by the Yemeni armed forces, as the Alsace had to use it “on targets that we did not necessarily imagine at the start.”

They cheated, they surprised us by shooting at us! The surprise on the part of the former colonial powers is almost comical, considering the way in which things that were obvious to every armchair history buff doesn’t seem to have quite penetrated the skulls of the various admirals and defense ministers of Clown World.

However, it does make what always appeared to be the strange behavior of Civil War and WWI generals a little more understandable, as apparently no military adapts easily to technological changes that necessitate new and different tactics and strategies.

DISCUSS ON SG

China is Not the Problem

It seems more than a little strange that we’re supposed to worry about China utilizing the intrusive automotive technologies that are increasingly being mandated, but not the very governments that forced those technologies upon drivers:

Tens of thousands of Chinese cars will be sold in Britain this year. This doesn’t just create an economic bonanza for Beijing, it gives it a geopolitical advantage too. For modern electric cars are computers on wheels. To function properly, they must be constantly connected to the internet, so that they can receive, gather and share data on their performance and surroundings.

This is a recipe for mayhem. Hackers demonstrated years ago how easy it was to remotely disable a single vehicle. With the full weight of a state cyber-warfare agency behind it, such attacks would be far more devastating and widespread.

If this is a recipe for mayhem, doesn’t it make considerably more sense to simply ban the connection of cars to the Internet rather than trying to ban the import of Chinese cars while assuming that the Chinese won’t be able to figure out how to hack the Internet-connected US- and Japanese-made cars?

DISCUSS ON SG

Ban the Panopticon

It’s always conveniently turned off whenever anyone in a position of authority is doing something sketchy or wants to retroactively hide something anyhow.

And there it is… The Dali ship’s black box has 2 minutes of missing data right before it crashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge

It’s not even remotely surprising anymore. All of those security cameras that are supposedly meant to provide the public with some level of security and information observably aren’t permitted to function well enough to fulfil their supposed purpose, so there is no reason to pretend that they ever will or to allow them to be utilized by government agencies.

Things like these are always justified on the basis of what they could, in theory, accomplish. But the observable reality is that they do not accomplish what is promised, therefore the justifications do not apply.

DISCUSS ON SG

The Poisoned Apple

The US Govt has created a hardware backdoor in the CPUs of Apple devices. This cannot be patched with a software update. Every owner of an Apple device is affected. You have no security. US spy agencies will have done the same with other CPUs.

I very much doubt it’s any better with Intel. But it’s now confirmed in the case of Apple.

DISCUSS ON SG

Cheese-19

Pfizer is now making up to 90 percent of all the cheese sold in the USA:

“90% of the cheese sold in the U.S. does not use animal rennet and instead uses a genetically modified organism (GMO) version made by Pfizer”

They use a loophole to get around having to label all our cheese as GMO, Here’s how:

“90% of US cheese has now been infiltrated by one of the world’s largest biopharmaceutical companies, Pfizer, and it has GMOs.”

Traditionally, cheese is made with just 4 ingredients, milk, salt, starter culture, and animal rennet, which is a clotting agent that’s used to curdle milk into cheese.

Today, there are 4 different kinds of rennet used in the cheese industry, and reports are stating that the most commonly used kind is a genetically modified version called FPC, or a fermentation produced chymosin made by Pfizer.

These alternative rennets are both cheaper to use and speed up the aging process, which like always means greater profits. The crazy part is no one knows that they’re eating this or how it’s really affecting us.

Because this FBC rennet is labeled as GRAS or generally recognized as safe, it creates a loophole that exempt Pfizer or other companies from having to label these products as GMO. And due to Pfizer’s massive amount of wealth and power, it’s now made its way into about 90% of our cheese.

It’s definitely time to switch to organic European imported cheeses. Or, I suppose, Velveeta. That should be safe, since I don’t think it’s possible to genetically modify plastic. But regardless, I wouldn’t touch the Pfizerized FPC cheese.

And keep this in mind: 43% of food additives are designated ‘GRAS’ and don’t get FDA oversight. Essentially, we must trust that food companies will conduct unbiased safety determinations before adding these new GRAS substances to our food.

DISCUSS ON SG

Good News and Bad News

The good news: Princess Kate isn’t dead.

The bad news: She didn’t get the saline.

The Princess of Wales has announced tonight that she has been diagnosed with cancer aged 42 and is undergoing ‘preventative’ chemotherapy. In a deeply emotional video message, filmed at Windsor on Wednesday, Catherine revealed the news had come as a ‘huge shock’ and that she and William ‘have been doing everything we can to process and manage this privately for the sake of our young family’.

Catherine’s cancer was discovered only after she underwent major abdominal surgery at The London Clinic in January. Kensington Palace has said it will not be sharing details of what kind of cancer the princess has, or what stage of cancer it is and has asked people not to speculate.

It is understood that the King – who is also currently undergoing cancer treatment himself – and the Queen have both been informed of the news.

It’s really astonishing that even at this point, most people are still in denial over the obvious adverse effects of the vaxx. Then again, most Americans still genuinely believe that 81 million people voted for Joe Biden too.

MPAI has consequences.

The weaponized autists at /pol/ are not at all convinced that the video is legitimate.

  • Kate’s vid doesn’t look right. If you look at the two areas circled in red you can see strange movement in isolated areas in the background next to Kate.
  • Something about it looks totally AI. The bench doesn’t look right. In the background, from the start to the finish, apart from the anomalies, there is not movement. They look to be daffodils in the background, and yet they are fixed immobile. Perhaps there was not wind at all. Sometimes flies flit across the frame which looks real, and the light changes of the couple of minutes.
  • About 1.20 in, it’s especially noticeable to the right of Kate’s head. The background blurs around as she moves. It’s a lot like the effect in Zoom or whatever when you put up a fake background so you don’t have to show your untidy basement.
  • And the bird sounds in the back, loop over and over. Green screen, fake sound effects.
  • AI Voice at 1:40
  • Background doesn’t move. Turn up the volume and listen closely to the sounds in the background as well. Sounds like a fake countryside kind of soundtrack. Her left eyebrow is off.
  • It is a fake country soundtrack, it’s a green screen production. Even the flies are fake, notice that not one of them lands on her or the bench?
  • There’s weird aliasing going around all over her head, most visible on the edges of her chin and cheeks.
  • I think there is a high chance it’s a deep fake with her voice and face being faked onto another person sitting still on a bench in front of a greenscreen to get the optimal results, hence why her body movement is so stiff and you only have these minimal hand gestures while her entire upper body stays still. This will be confirmed if she doesnt make a public appearence soon or they announce her sudden demise to this so-called cancer. At 1:40 you can hear an audio distortion with what sounds like the original voice of the stand in coming through a bit while being distorted by the voice change “AI” program.
  • It was this 19 year old Kate lookalike.
  • Why does the shadow on the bench have stripes?
  • The shadow on the bench around 1:20 looks like the stripes are extended onto the the bench. This is really fucked up.
  • Two seconds of watching and I can see it’s at minimum greenscreen but more likely generated.

My immediate reaction was that it isn’t real. I haven’t analyzed it in any detail myself, since I don’t really care in the slightest about a German monarchy that hasn’t lifted a finger to defend England from invasion since 1948, but I do have a moderately-trained eye from my experience as a game developer overseeing a team of artists, and it looked like a well-done deep fake to me. The face, in particular, looks off. And the computer image analysis tends to confirm this conclusion:

UPDATE: The Daily Mail wants to know: Will Kate conspiracy theorists now eat their words?

In the immortal words of Bugs Bunny, nyoooooo.

DISCUSS ON SG

Always. Use. Cash.

If you’re not using cash every chance you get, you’re literally part of the problem:

Sainsbury’s is battling a major IT meltdown on one of the busiest shopping days of the week and has left customers fuming after suffering an ‘error with an overnight software update’ that has prevented the supermarket from being able to fulfil online orders or accept contactless payments at the tills.

Stores across the UK are battling a major ‘technical issue’ that has left customers ‘disappointed’ and forced to turn to rival Tesco to complete their Saturday shop.

Frustrated customers say they cannot pay at the tills, while company bosses admit the firm is ‘experiencing issues with contactless payments’ and also ‘will not be able to fulfil the vast majority of today’s Groceries Online deliveries’.

Look, there are many situations that one simply has to use electronic payments, such as when one is not in a face-to-face transaction. But this recent payment failure at Sainsbury’s illustrates the absolute need for cash, which is why it is incumbent upon everyone to insist on cash transactions for all of your face-to-face transactions.

I don’t even have a debit card, much less one of those smartphone app payment methods. And this isn’t because I’m a Boomer who hates and fears newfangled technology, but because I understand exactly where all this “contactless” electronic payment tech is ultimately heading.

Don’t help pave the way for the Mark of the Beast. Don’t participate in it. Don’t make it easier for them.

DISCUSS ON SG

Against Free Speech

Andrew Torba appears to have belatedly come around on the problematic nature of free speech, even if he has not yet accepted the historical fact of its essentially evil nature:

The Previous Policy: Focus on Individual Content Removal

For a long time Gab relied on a policy that focused on removing individual pieces of content that violated our community guidelines. This approach often involved issuing warnings to users before taking action on specific posts or comments. However, this strategy has shown limitations, as some users continued to engage in threatening, spammy, and harassing behavior even after multiple warnings. This led to the ongoing presence of toxic elements within the community, which often drove good and decent users away.

The New Policy: Removal of Entire Accounts

In response to these challenges, Gab has decided to take a more proactive approach by removing entire accounts that engage in threatening, harassing, or spamming behavior. This shift in policy is a direct response to the shortcomings of the previous approach, which failed to effectively deter users from engaging in problematic activities. By removing entire accounts instead of just individual pieces of content, Gab aims to send a clear message that such behavior will not be tolerated and will ultimately lead to account termination.

We are giving no quarter to subversive accounts that exist for one reason and one reason only: to destroy Gab and our amazing community.

In order to strike the right balance between protecting free speech and ensuring the safety of our community, we must continually assess and refine our approach to content moderation. This involves ongoing discussions with users, legal experts, and other stakeholders to ensure that our policies remain both effective and fair.

Ultimately, our goal is to create a platform where individuals can freely express themselves while also feeling safe and protected from subversive freaks who want to scare them off the platform with violent threats and make Gab look bad.

As we continue to evolve and grow as a platform, we remain committed to the principles of free speech and community protection. By working together with our users and partners, we believe that we can create a space where individuals can engage in healthy and productive dialogue while also not facing a barrage of threats and harassment from subversive people who want to destroy Gab.

We’re cleaning up Gab and it’s long overdue.

This is a wise step forward, but an incoherent policy. Because “the principles of free speech” are inherently and always opposed to “community protection”. The very purpose of free speech is subversive and blasphemous; as we have learned, the primary advocates of free speech are the very first to criminalize and penalize it as soon as they attain sufficient power.

But I understand. It’s very hard to not only abandon, but actively turn against the very rhetoric that once inspired you. Most people are never able to slaughter their formerly sacred cows. At least Torba and company have recognized the poison in the false promises and are now taking practical steps against it, even though they are still paying lip service to the conceptual problem.

DISCUSS ON SG