The 2024 hurricane season is forecast to be a record-breaker and climate provocateurs are crowing that it’s all your fault. Your carbon-intense lifestyle is warming the global atmosphere and now the biggest storms on earth are about to intensify and wreak havoc.

A prime example was heard last week on National Public Radio’s Shortwave Podcast. An NPR “climate desk” correspondent stated, “…human-caused climate change is driving up temperatures around the world, not just on land—like so many of us are experiencing firsthand this week—but in the ocean, where the hurricanes form.”

Total junk-science. 

The cover endorsement for my new book Climate Cult: Exposing and Defeating Their War on Life, Liberty, and Property is from the former director of the National Hurricane Center, Dr. Neil Frank.  At 93-years young he remains sharp as a tack and stays abreast of the latest atmospheric news. He is a meteorologist’s meteorologist.

I called Dr. Frank to get his take on the 2024 forecast, which was issued by the hurricane forecasting unit at Colorado State University. CSU has been presenting these predictions for nearly 40-years, based on a formula created by Professor William “Bill” Gray.  Professor Gray (now deceased) was one of Neil’s best friends and was a regular guest on my San Francisco radio program. Bill was not a believer in anthropogenic climate change.

The 2024 forecast from CSU calls for 23 “named storms,” in the Atlantic Basin (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby, etc.). Named storms include both tropical storms (winds of at least 39 mph) and hurricanes (winds of at least 74 mph). The seasonal average number of named storms is 14.

The CSU forecast also calls for 11 hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin, whereas the average is 7. Of those 11 hurricanes, 5 are anticipated to be “major,” meaning a storm with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. The average number of major hurricanes each year in that region is 3.

Indeed, while it really might be a big season for hurricanes and tropical storms, Dr. Frank put the CSU forecast into perspective.

“Hurricanes follow a multi-decadal cycle of about 60-years that cannot be linked to global warming. We are currently in a very active phase of a natural cycle. Not a surprise.”

As for the warmer ocean temperatures that the NPR reporter was attempting to link to climate change, Dr. Frank says such phenomena are not unusual. Keep in mind, hurricanes generally form near the equator and require a water temperature of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (26.5 Celsius) to get their engines going.  While it’s true that ocean temperatures are trending upward, according to Dr. Frank, “Ocean temperatures also follow a multi-decadal cycle of 30-years cold and 30-years warm. We’re currently in a warm cycle than has nothing to do with fossil fuels.”

Dr. Frank also pointed out another important factor that is missing from the climate change narrative. Technology has allowed meteorologists to almost instantly determine when a storm reaches the sustained wind threshold required to garner a name. “We are now naming storms we would have never named before. In the old days if we suspected the birth of a tropical storm we would have to wait for a ship or airplane to pass by and provide us with the data to confirm it. Many times, we were too late.

“And don’t forget this, Brian,” Dr. Frank reminded me. “Hurricanes are a necessary component of the atmosphere, transporting warm air from the equator towards the poles. And, of course, they can be deadly. The Galveston hurricane in 1900 claimed at least 6,000 lives.”

Can’t blame that on carbon dioxide emissions.

Brian Sussman is a meteorologist, author, and host of the Brian Sussman Show Podcast

Photo credit: NASA Goddard Space Center public domain