Presuming that both Arizona and Georgia return to the GOP fold, and given Trump’s current Real Clear Politics aggregate leads in both those states — head-to-head +4.8, five-way +6.2 and +5.0/6.4, respectively — and the fact Trump has not been behind in a single poll in either state since April, it seems a fair presumption, what are Trump’s paths to an Electoral College or House of Representatives victory?  Some are very possible, some convoluted but possible, and some unlikely but possible.

Firstly, and presuming he doesn’t lose any state he won in 2020, the simplest path is to win one of Pennsylvania, a 281 Electoral College total; Michigan 277; or Wisconsin 272.

Trump could also win outright if he took Minnesota (272), which he narrowly lost in 2016 and is making a play for now.  Current polling shows the state tied.  But the reality is that if he wins Minnesota, he almost certainly would have won one or more of the adjoining battleground states.  An outright win is also the case for Virginia (275), currently tied in polling.

Trump could also win outright with the combination of Nevada and New Hampshire (272), which on the face of it seems unlikely.  However, usually reliably Dem New Hampshire voters are quirky.  This is the state that denied Gore the presidency by their votes for Nader, which were enough to give the state win to G.W. Bush.  They also gave a presidential primary win to a candidate who was in France by write-in.  If RFK Jr. plays the Nader role, anything can happen there.

Nevada and the popular vote in Maine giving Trump three of the Maine’s four electoral votes is 270.  Under normal circumstances, such a Maine result would be unlikely, but if Kennedy gets on the ballot, then it is possible.

More challenging — or, given the current partisan divide, very much a possibility — is a 269/269 tie, where neither candidate has the required 270 Electoral College majority, and the election is thrown to the House of Representatives, where each state has one vote, and the GOP would have the majority of state delegation votes.

Nevada, where again Trump has led in every poll this year and aggregates +5.7/+6.5, plus the one vote of Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, is 269/269.

And what are President Biden’s paths based on current polling, presuming the Arizona/Georgia scenario?

Presuming that Trump holds all the other states he won in 2020 and picks up Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, Biden would have to hold all of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where he is currently behind in polling, plus retain the Second Congressional District in Nebraska, for 270 Electoral votes.  If he holds Nevada, that gets him to 276.

At this point in time, based on current aggregates where available, Trump would seem to have the upper hand in the Electoral College.  Given that Trump lost in the Electoral College in 2020 by circa 40K votes while losing the popular vote by 4.5 points and currently is slightly ahead in the same, it looks positive for him.  But it is a long time still to November.

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