Editor’s note (July 21st): Joe Biden has stepped down as the Democratic nominee. We have paused the forecast until we have sufficient polling data about his successor. Read more about what will come next.
Chance of winning the electoral college
270 to win
Joe Biden has about a chance
Donald Trump has about a chance
2020 results
Likely range
Median
Note: Candidates often enjoy a polling surge after party conventions. Following the Republicans' official nomination of Donald Trump on July 18th, any such boost will temporarily increase his win probability in our forecast.
Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the probable electoral-vote totals, we run over 10,000 simulations of the election. The chance of a tie in the electoral college is less than 1 in 100.
Jump to state forecasts
Who’s ahead in the national polls?
Likely range
Poll average
We keep a running average of national head-to-head polls, which gives a sense of how the race is progressing. But winning the national popular vote is not enough to win the presidency.
Our latest coverage of the race
What are the key states to watch?
In most states one party has a comfortable advantage, making them uncompetitive. These six states (worth 77 electoral votes) will be decisive. In 2016, Mr Trump carried five of the six; in 2020, Mr Biden won them all.
Projected vote margin
2020 result
Chance of being the state that decides the election
Which states are crucial to each candidate?
The key states are not equally important. Some are larger, and some lean more to one candidate or the other. Some are similar: for example, if one candidate wins Michigan, he is likely ahead in Wisconsin, too. We calculated each candidate’s chances to win should they lose these states.
Overall chance of winning
Without this state
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Who is likely to win in each state?
Uncertain
<65 in 100
Likely
65-85
Very Likely
85-99
Safe
99+
Electoral votes
Change from 2020
Jump to state forecasts
How our forecast has changed over time
As polls and economic data change, our model updates its predictions to account for them. You can see how the race has changed since the beginning of the campaign.
Chance of winning
Methodology
The Economist’s model of America’s presidential election estimates each major candidate’s chances of winning each state and the overall electoral college. Developed with a team of scholars at Columbia University, the forecast combines national and state-level polls with fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns and the demographics of each state to predict the likelihood of various outcomes of the race.
The model does this by constructing thousands of scenarios, each one containing different vote shares in each state and different values for the impact of polling biases and other characteristics. The model is more likely to generate scenarios that are closer to matching the polls and fundamental data it has been given. The win probabilities presented here represent the share of these scenarios won by each candidate.
For more details on exactly how the model accomplishes this and the thinking behind its design, read the full methodology.
Sources: American National Election Studies; Cooperative Congressional Election Study; FiveThirtyEight; Gallup; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; US Census Bureau; 270towin.com; YouGov
Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and colleagues at Columbia University
