Bankrate reposted this
LinkedIn Top Voice. Economic analyst, survey maven, and trusted resource for Bankrate, Red Ventures, and beyond. Former president of two associations of journalists, The National Press Club and SABEW.
What's the outlook for the U.S. economy over the next 12 months? The outcome is important for individuals, households, and businesses, as we look to achieve financial goals. That's what we asked many of the nation's top economists for our quarterly survey at Bankrate. I'm extremely grateful to the experts who've participated in this effort since I started it a decade ago. Here are some of the main takeaways (looking at the averages among respondents): -Unemployment will increase slightly to 4.3%. -Hiring will slow more considerably, averaging 115k jobs added a month. -Interest rates, including on mortgages, should decline. -The odds of a recession are about 1-in-3 or 32%. -They're divided between saying inflation should hit the Fed’s desired 2% level by the end of 2025, or by the end of 2025 or later. Of course, the actual outcomes could be much different. We must acknowledge the high uncertainty around the U.S. election, monetary policy (as governed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks), and geopolitical developments when two wars are raging. Kudos to my tremendous colleague Sarah Foster who does a terrific job taking complex subjects, and breaking them down for us to understand. Let's keep the conversation on this going! Feel free to share, and please let us know your thoughts on the outlook, including your career, finances, and the broader economy.