Joe Biden remains the clear favorite to beat Donald Trump in New York in the 2024 presidential election, despite some Democrats raising concerns about the president's dipping poll numbers in the blue stronghold.
On Wednesday, Politico reported that a number of Democrats have expressed fears about the state of the White House race, where Biden beat Trump by 23-points in 2020, as well as what the president's sliding support may mean for down ballot contests.
The alarm comes after two private polls conducted in a swing New York House Congressional District from September 2023 and March, seen by Politico, showed that Trump had a gained a 1-point lead over Biden. Those polls were conducted months before Biden began facing a number of calls to end his reelection bid in the wake of his maligned performance in the CNN debate on June 27.
"We're still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been," Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said, according to the news outlet. "I truly believe we're a battleground state now."
Biden's and Trump's offices have been contacted by Newsweek for comment via email.
Despite the warnings and a number of recent polls showing Biden's lead over Trump in New York has dipped to single figures, the president is still expected to easily win the state in November.
The state has not gone for the Republican White House candidate since 1980 and 1984, when it backed former President Ronald Reagan.
In June, a pre-debate Siena College poll of 805 registered voters showed Biden had an eight-point lead over Trump in New York (47 percent to 39 percent). That survey also showed Biden with his lowest ever favorability rating in the state at 42 percent.
A previous Siena College poll from May showed Biden with a nine-point lead over Trump (47 percent to 38 percent), a minor change from the 10-point lead (47 percent to 37 percent) recorded in April.
In May, an Emerson College Polling/The Hill/PIX11 survey of 1000 New York voters showed Biden with a seven-point lead over his Republican rival (48 percent to 41).
"Independent voters in New York who traditionally vote for Democrats, according to exit polling, have flipped to lean toward Trump by a margin of ten points, 43 percent to 33 percent," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said of the May polling.
A Slingshot Strategies poll in May of 1,059 registered voters showed Biden with a much sturdier 19-point lead over Trump in New York, a margin that more closely mirrored the 2020 results.
Elsewhere, the influential Cook Political Report lists New York as solidly Democratic, meaning it is not considered competitive or likely to become closely contested. The Hill is also giving Biden a 98 percent chance of winning the state in November.
If Trump were to get close to Biden in November, it would be considered a major achievement for the Republican, and could spell disaster for the incumbent's campaign.
Of the nine presidential elections in the state won by Democrats since Reagan's victory, six featured a margin of victory of more than 20 points.
The last competitive presidential race in New York was in 1988, when Democrat Michael Dukakis narrowly topped Republican George H.W. Bush by four points (52 percent to 48).
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About the writer
Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, domestic policy ... Read more
