Former President Donald Trump has suffered a series of polling blows, according to surveys published over the past week, with one showing President Joe Biden with a 1-percentage-point lead in a straight-up contest while others show that the presumptive Republican nominee has lost ground in swing states.
This comes after the first presidential debate between Biden and Trump on June 27 that sparked widespread concern over the 81-year-old president's age and mental fortitude, as he appeared to lose his train of thought at several points.
In the debate's aftermath, a number of prominent Democrats, including members of Congress and actor George Clooney, urged Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, though he is continuing to insist he will run. On Thursday, Biden mistakenly called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky "President Putin" and described Vice President Kamala Harris as "Vice President Trump" during separate events in Washington, D.C.
![Former president Donald Trump](https://cdn.statically.io/img/d.newsweek.com/en/full/2427375/former-president-donald-trump.jpg?w=1200&f=8e0637fd7060cc5ebebdf3ecadcb8431)
On July 10 a Data for Progress poll showed Biden ahead of Trump in a head-to-head contest, 47 percent to 46 percent, with 7 percent unsure. The survey of 2,067 likely voters was conducted between July 1 and 3.
However, the same poll found that when independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, along with Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver and the Green Party's Jill Stein, were included, Trump led Biden 41 percent to 40 percent.
Data from polling aggregation website Race to the White House published on July 11 showed that Biden had made gains in three swing states since immediately before the June 27 debate.
In Michigan, Biden gained 0.8 percent of the vote, putting him ahead of Trump by 0.4 percent. Biden also gained in Georgia by 0.9 percent and North Carolina by 0.8 percent over this period, though he remained behind Trump in the two states by 3.5 percent and 4 percent, respectively.
The past week also saw the publication of a new poll of 800 likely Black voters in the swing states of Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin conducted by Brilliant Corner Research & Strategies between June 23 and 29 for BlackPAC.
The survey found that Biden's average support with Black voters across the seven states increased from 50 percent in February to 65 percent in June, while backing for Trump fell from 8 percent to 7 percent. Biden's gains mainly took place at the expense of third-party candidates, who fell from 17 percent to 11 percent, and the undecided, who went from 25 percent to 18 percent.
Separately, an Ipsos poll conducted for The Washington Post and ABC News between July 5 and 9 put Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Trump 49 percent to 46 percent in a White House matchup. Harris is widely seen as one of the most plausible Democratic presidential candidates if Biden steps aside.
In a direct matchup between the two rivals, the survey put Trump ahead of Biden with 47 percent of the vote to 46 percent. It was a 1-point improvement for Biden on the last Ipsos poll, which gave Trump a 2-point lead.
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Donald Trump 2024 presidential election campaign for comment by email on Friday.
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James Bickerton is a Newsweek U.S. News reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is covering U.S. politics and world ... Read more