Fact Check: Trump Tells Logan Paul 107,000 People Attended New Jersey Rally

Donald Trump has made something of a habit recently of inflating the numbers of supporters at his rally, a series of claims that Newsweek has investigated.

At a rally in New Jersey on Sunday, the former president repeated claims he had attracted audiences in Las Vegas and Ohio that far exceeded the publicly available footage and evidence that suggested otherwise.

In a new interview with influencer Logan Paul, posted online this week, Trump mentioned another estimate, claiming that a May rally in New Jersey attracted 107,000 attendees.

The Claim

During an interview on Logan Paul's podcast, posted on YouTube on June 13, 2024, Trump claimed that 107,000 people had attended a rally he held in Wildwood, New Jersey, in May 2024.

"I'll tell you when you look at the people, when you look at the crowds, I did a rally in New Jersey, we had 107,000 people that you saw that last week..." he said.

The Facts

The claim that 100,000 people attended the rally in New Jersey, was quoted by media and Trump's representatives at the time but that number has been questioned since.

Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung told Newsweek in May that "over 100,000 people patriots" had shown up.

It can often be difficult to estimate accurate crowd size after the fact. However, unlike some of Trump's other rallies, a host of photos, videos, social media posts, and other footage gives a rough dimension of the Wildwood site, which can then be used to estimate crowd sizes using online modeling tools

Aerial footage showed a rectangular event site running along Wildwood beach between the Boardwalk and the Adventure Pier.

Trump's podium was nearly centered with Wildwood Boardwalk's Giant Wheel, while the eastern corners of the stage ran parallel to a rollercoaster next to the Giant Wheel nearest the beach's edge, and a Water Park sign on the Boardwalk side. The western corners of the stage ran parallel with the southwest corner of a block on Ocean Avenue home to the Wildwood Mall.

Using this information, Newsweek plotted the rough site area on MapChecking.com, which estimates crowd sizes based on square footage and capacity density. The estimate suggested that the total unobstructed capacity of the Wildwood rally site would have been somewhere between 75,000 to 77,000 people.

However, the site was obstructed, with Trump's stage, a runway, engineering and sound areas, crowd walkways, and other infrastructure that would have limited the capacity further.

That estimate also assumes that two-and-a-half people per square meter occupied all available space. Based on photos from the day and modeling diagrams demonstrating the density of crowds, it's likely the number was even smaller. Attendants could sit and footage shows the crowd was not crammed in.

Assuming there were instead two people per square meter, consistent with the computer crowd modeling and event footage, the total unobstructed site size estimate comes to around 60,000 people. Adding the obstructive infrastructure on top of the site reduces the likely total attendance and capacity to a figure closer to other assessments.

A report by The Philadelphia Inquirer quoted Alex Mahadevan, director of Poynter Institute initiative MediaWise, said on X, formerly Twitter, that estimates came to about 40,000 people, while Wildwood Mayor Ernie Troiano Jr. said the rally's venue could hold up to that amount, as reported by Breaking AC.com.

Fox News' Jesse Watters made an even lower estimate, telling Fox roundtable show The Five that the reporter at the event in New Jersey "said it wasn't 100,000, said it was closer to 30,000."

"That's still a packed venue, and that's still, I would say, 29,500 more than Joe Biden's ever had," Watters added.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, FoxNews.com columnist David Marcus agreed with Watters' estimation.

"Jesse Watters on The Five just said that his reporter puts the Wildwood crowd at about 30,000. That I can believe," Marcus posted.

Lisa Fagan, a spokesperson for the city of Wildwood, had initially told the Associated Press that she estimated a crowd of between 80,000 and 100,000 people attended the Trump rally on Saturday based on having seen "dozens" of other events held in the same space.

However, in follow-up comments published by Insider NJ, Fagan provided a comment from Mayor Troiano which said the estimate was based on the number of people in the town.

"As a tourist town, we speak in tourism numbers," he said.

"When we see that volume of people attending a beach event, we know that 80,000+ people are in our town.

"We see a quarter of a million visitors every weekend in the summer on our 1.89-mile boardwalk, not to mention our five-mile island, so we know what that volume looks like.

"They were watching and listening from the beach and boardwalk, in bars and restaurants, at hotels and second homes. People even lined up along the streets parade-style. We defer to the Trump Campaign for the exact count on the beach."

While it's true that there may have been others outside watching Trump's speech, it was also reported that thousands of people left during his speech, so any amount of onlookers watching it would be set against the lines of people leaving the event.

Whatever the exact figure was, based on event footage, other reporting public statements, and crowd modeling, Trump's claim that there were 107,000 people in Wildwood for him does not appear to be supported by evidence.

Newsweek has contacted Donald Trump's spokespeople for comment.

The Ruling

False

Based on crowd modeling, the size of the rally site, footage from the event, and accounts from other reporters, Trump's claim that 107,000 people attended his Wildwood Rally does not appear to be supported by evidence.

An initial assessment provided to the press by a city spokesman suggested that many people could have attended was later walked back, clarifying they had meant the number of people in the town at the time.

FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team