Is Far Right Headed for Power in France? What We Know

France's Prime Minister, Gabriel Attal, has warned that the far right was at the "gates of power" after the first round of parliamentary elections, but whether they can enter them depends on political deal making and a crucial second-round ballot.

The gamble by President Emmanuel Macron to call a snap parliamentary election has seen the National Rally (RN), headed by Marine Le Pen, get a third (33.4 percent) of the national popular vote, ahead of the leftist alliance New Popular Front (NFP) which received 27.9 percent.

Macron's "Together" coalition won just over a fifth (20.7 percent) of the votes, which Célia Belin, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said showed that the president had committed an act of "self-sabotage."

Why Did Macron Call an Election?

Experts have been speculating over why Macron decided to unexpectedly call for the snap ballot on June 9, becoming the first French president to dissolve the 577-seat National Assembly since 1997. Macron had been elected in 2022 for a second presidential term, but his centrist coalition has struggled to pass some bills without opposition support.

In June, his coalition had just been crushed in the European Parliament elections by the party of Le Pen and her protégé, Jordan Bardella, with the RN getting around 31.4 percent, more than twice the 14.6 percent of Macron's group.

The president's decision may have been because conservative lawmakers had been threatening to topple his government in the autumn, or a way to stop the opposition from organizing.

The European parliamentary elections, however, are more prone to a protest vote. Macron may have counted on the greater checks and balances in the two-round French system, calculating they would show how Le Pen's party might fail the test of daily politics, making them less of a force in 2027 presidential election.

However, such a tactic could backfire, said Itay Lotem, senior lecturer in French studies at London's University of Westminster.

"I cannot see how a cohabitation government will be very functional—but whether the electorate actually blame the president or the far right for it being dysfunctional is impossible to say," he told Newsweek.

"It does give the far right actual access to the levers of power for three years," he said. "What emerges in the 2027 election is anyone's guess."

Sebastien Maillard, associate fellow of the Europe program at London's Chatham House think tank, said that Le Pen's RN "will lose their political virginity in governing."

"That's perhaps part of the gamble of Macron—he has to do a cohabitation with them to ruin their reputation so we witness what kind of government they are," he told Newsweek. "It can also happen that, by 2027, Le Pen says, 'We couldn't do everything our way because we had this cohabitation. If you give us the full power, then we will able to.'"

In explaining the snap poll, Macron said that France needed "a clear majority to move forward." However, Belin from the ECFR told Newsweek, "President Macron has lost his gamble, and will come out weakened and isolated."

What Happens Now?

Previous elections in France have seen right- and left-wing parties agree to withdraw their candidates from the runoffs to avoid splitting the vote against the RN.

To this end, NFP leader, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the former leader of La France Insoumise said he would withdraw its candidates who came third in the first round because he did not want "a single more vote for the National Rally."

"Macron's camp has refused to do the same on a systematic basis because of the presence of La France Insoumise candidates in some cases, establishing a moral equivalency between Mélenchon's and Le Pen's parties," said Belin. "In turn, it may increase anti-RN voters' confusion on what is the road to follow."

While the gains for Le Pen are historic and raise the prospect of the first far-right French government since World War II, French media reported that seat projections for the second-round runoff suggest they may fall short of the 289-seat absolute majority.

Without this absolute majority, there will be a hung parliament and the RN will not be able to push through its plans for immigration, tax cuts and law and order.

The turnout of 66.7 percent was the highest for a parliamentary first round since 1997, following a three-week campaign. On Monday morning, Bardella, who would become prime minister should the RN get a majority, published a letter outlining his party's strategy to mobilize voters for the second round.

Belin said that even if there is a surge on the left and center in the coming days, there are "deep divisions and animosity" between Macron's camp, the liberal conservative party, Les Républicains, and the NFP.

This means it is "improbable that there will be an 'alternative majority' that governs France from the center. In power, Macron has proven incapable of compromising and building a governing coalition with the right or [to] negotiate on his platform," said Belin.

"Instead, the overwhelming surge of the far-right, combined with a small resilient grouping of Les Républicains places the most likely majority in this camp," she added.

Itay said the RN's gains "show consolidation of power that has been going on for a while, but wouldn't have been so quick without the snap election.

"The far right will gain a large presence, but I don't see where it gets the actual majority from."

Much depends on the horse trading in the coming days as Macron ponders his next move after two resounding defeats within a month.

"When you have been defeated twice in one month that harshly and the fact that he is an outgoing president, because he cannot stand for another election in 2027, really diminishes his leadership," said Maillard. "The only predictable thing at this stage is that whatever happens, Macron has to share power."