Israel's war against the Hamas group backed by Iran means the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi comes at a testing time for the region, but it is unlikely to change how the Islamic Republic deals with Gaza or the West, geopolitical experts have told Newsweek.
Iran has declared five days of mourning after Raisi died in a helicopter crash on Sunday en route to the city of Tabriz after returning from the border with Azerbaijan. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and the governor of Iran's East Azerbaijan province, General Malek Rahmati, were among those on board.
Raisi was the second-most-important figure in Iran, after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. There is speculation about the consequences for his demise, given Iran's backing for Hamas, tit-for-tat missile strikes on Israel, and a warning by a senior lawmaker about Tehran's ability to make a nuclear weapon within days.
![Ebrahim Raisi](https://cdn.statically.io/img/d.newsweek.com/en/full/2395441/ebrahim-raisi.jpg?w=1200&f=d22587057fd720fba68557f9a485c520)
"Raisi's sudden demise does not portend a sea change in how Iran formulates and acts upon its interests abroad," Ali Vaez, director of Iran Project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told Newsweek.
Under Iran's constitution, vice president Mohammad Mokhber will assume control, and elections will be held within 50 days, but there could be diplomatic ructions caused by Raisi's death.
Elected president in a closely controlled vote in 2021, Raisi had taken a tough stance in nuclear negotiations to get relief from U.S. sanctions, in return for only modest curbs on Iran's increasingly advanced technology.
In 2018, former President Donald Trump pulled the U.S. out of an international nuclear deal limiting Tehran's nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Tehran has since progressively violated the agreement's nuclear limits.
"It is the supreme leader who makes strategic decisions about foreign policy, albeit informed by the views of other key stakeholders, including the president," Vaez said. "It will be Raisi's successor who carries out those decisions, including by taking the helm of delicate negotiations with the United States."
Vaez added that, because Iran's relations with its regional allies, like Hamas, are managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), these "will continue regardless of who is president."
"Even the killing of that network's mastermind, General Qassem Soleimani, by President Trump in 2020 did not alter that reality," Vaez said, referring to the military leader military leader assassinated on January 3, 2020.
Hamidreza Azizi, a research fellow at German think tank SWP Berlin, told Newsweek that Iran's foreign policy and rigidity toward the U.S. will likely remain the same, given that decisions are set by the Supreme Leader and the IRGC, not the president.
"I do not expect any sort of disruption in that field to the extent that it has to do with Iran's actual support for Hamas and its positioning on the ground," Azizi said.
"What may change is that, because Iran has lost not only its president, but also foreign minister, so the diplomatic positioning that Iran has been doing since the start of the war in Gaza may actually be impacted until the new president is elected and the cabinet is established."
Indirect talks between Tehran, Iran and the U.S. to revive a nuclear deal have stalled amid hopes they could resume. However, Azizi said, "these things may stop for some time, at least until the new administration is settled."
Javad Karimi-Ghodousi, a member of Iran's national security commission, sparked alarm when he said in April that Tehran could enrich uranium to 90 percent purity "for warheads" in "half a day or, let's say, one week."
"The threats of building a nuclear weapon haven't come from the administration but from different figures within the system or former officials, so that's not going to change either," Azizi said, "Raisi is not the decisive person if Iran decided to build a nuclear bomb."
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Brendan Cole is a Newsweek Senior News Reporter based in London, UK. His focus is Russia and Ukraine, in particular ... Read more