Israel Poised For Hezbollah War: 'The Situation Here Must Change'

Stretching several miles from the Lebanon border into northern Israel is what local officials refer to as a "dead zone." Tens of thousands of residents have fled further south. The area's agriculture industry has evaporated, and its tourism is non-existent.

Civil authorities and military units in northern Israel are now steeling themselves for a full-scale war with Lebanese-based militant group, Hezbollah, as military preparations on the border reflect increasingly outspoken comments from current and former Israeli officials.

"The situation here must change," Lieutenant Colonel (res.) Oren, an Israeli officer stationed in northern Israel, told journalists gathered in the settlement of Mitzpe Hila, around five miles from Israel's border with Lebanon. "We have clear plans."

Shortly after Palestinian militant group Hamas carried out its unprecedented attack on southern Israel from Gaza on October 7, Iran-backed Hezbollah quickly began targeting northern Israel from southern Lebanon with drones, rockets and missiles in what it has described as solidarity with Hamas. Israel sent reinforcements to the northern border at the time.

Hezbollah has vowed to maintain its attacks on northern Israel until Israel's military fully withdraws from Gaza. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are nearly nine months into a highly destructive war in Gaza, determined to destroy Hamas and rescue the more than 100 remaining hostages in the strip. The Hamas-controlled health ministry in Gaza has said more than 37,800 Palestinians have been killed in the territory since October.

Israel has indicated that it is preparing to transfer some resources away from Gaza to the northern front, escalating from retaliatory fire that has forced around 100,000 people in southern Lebanon to leave their homes to a fully-fledged ground operation. Israel has officially signaled that it does not want a full-scale war with Hezbollah, but it has "approved and validated" operational plans for an offensive into the neighboring country.

"We are ready to do whatever it takes to remove this threat," Oren said.

Others go further. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week that the country's military could send Lebanon "back to the Stone Age" in all-out conflict. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned over the weekend that a "sharp, quick" war with Hezbollah was on the horizon, in remarks reported by Israeli media.

Zohar Palti, a former director of intelligence at Mossad, told reporters in Tel Aviv that the working assumption is operations into Lebanon would be full-scale, adding: "We will do it. We will have to do it." Tel Aviv may take some hits, but the Lebanese capital, Beirut, could be flattened, he said.

Hezbollah—a political party as well as a militant organization—wields enormous power in Lebanon, where the official state apparatus is on its knees. Hezbollah grew out of civil war in Lebanon in the mid-1970s to fight Israel, and has become one of the best-equipped non-state actors in the world. Israel last directly fought Hezbollah in 2006.

Hezbollah "is a terrorist organization that acts like an army," Lieutenant Colonel (res) Ishay Efroni, the head of the security department for the Mate Asher regional council in northern Israel, told the media. Mate Asher covers swathes of Israel's northwest from its border with Lebanon, down to northeast of regional hub Haifa.

"They have nearly unlimited budget, they have access to all the new ammunition, bombs, rockets that you can imagine," he added. "They have the equipment, they have the capability, to attack, and they have the motivation."

IDF commanders in the north project a conviction that Israel will emerge firmly victorious against Hezbollah, despite the group's extensive weapons stockpiles and concerns over Israel's air defense capability against barrages from the north.

"Hezbollah is no match whatsoever for the IDF," Lieutenant Colonel (res.) Yarden, also speaking from Mitzpe Hila, told international media. "What's going on in Gaza today is child's play, compared to what could happen up north in Lebanon."

Outside of Israel, its allies and other countries in the region have been keen to head off further escalation, although reports suggest the U.S. has warned Hezbollah it can have little power in holding back an Israeli offensive into southern Lebanon.

United Nations chief António Guterres warned late last month that the Middle East, and the international community, "cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza."

Iran's mission to the United Nations has promised an "obliterating war" should any Israeli operation into Lebanon get underway.

"We don't see the light at the end of the tunnel"

For some residents of northern Israel, the possibility of widespread destruction in a ground offensive is a price they are increasingly willing to pay for a shot at moving back to their homes without Hezbollah looming just miles away.

Without removing the militant group from southern Lebanon, authorities in charge close to the border say, northern Israel's residents can never return.

"Hezbollah is the most dangerous terrorist organization in the Middle East, not just in the north of Israel, but the Middle East," said Moshe Davidovich, the head of Mate Asher's regional council.

"Now, we fight to give to our residents the security to get back to their homes" without fear of coming under fire or being kidnapped, Davidovich said. Until Hezbollah's infrastructure and arsenal is dismantled, he added, he will not allow his residents to return.

Between 60,000 and 70,000 residents in northern Israel have been displaced, according to Israeli authorities. Many residents, including 7,000 from Mate Asher, were initially moved to hotels, but some have now moved to more permanent accommodation across the country, such as in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Those within just over two miles of the border have been completely evacuated, the homes just further south largely staying put.

As it stands, "we don't see the light at the end of the tunnel," Efroni said.

"Fully ready and determined"

For many months, Israel has been carrying out a campaign of retaliatory airstrikes, targeting what its military describes as high-value Hezbollah figures and the organization's high-ranking members. Israeli attacks have mainly focused on the border areas, prompting mass evacuations of residents from southern Lebanon, but have reached the likes of the Lebanese city of Baalbek, deep into Lebanon and east of Beirut.

"We've been fighting a defensive battle on our border, and also plenty of offensive strikes every single day," Yarden said.

Just under 500 people, the vast majority of which belonged to Hezbollah, have been killed in Israeli attacks since October, according to Yarden, saying just shy of 10,000 rockets and missiles had been fired into northern Israel during this time.

Looking to the next phase, Oren said, the IDF is "fully ready and determined."

"The people need to come back home," added Yarden.