President Joe Biden has a path to victory in the upcoming presidential election, but he needs three critical swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—in order to win. However, he's currently trailing former President Donald Trump, albeit by a slim margin, in those states, according to recent polling.
While this remains a close race between Biden and Trump, the president lost some support following his dismal debate performance last week, with Trump gaining a small margin over the incumbent president in national polls.
Nathaniel Rakich, senior editor and senior elections analyst at poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, laid out a possible path to victory for the president in an ABC News article in May.
"If [Biden] carries Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus every other state and district that he won by at least 6 points in 2020, he would finish with exactly 270 electoral votes," he wrote.
In Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes go to the statewide winner and each congressional district gets one electoral vote to give to the winner of their district.
"It's certainly still possible that Biden wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; all three states are still rated as a toss-up in 538's [FiveThirtyEight] forecast of the presidential election. That said, we have barely gotten any polls of these states since the debate," Rakich told Newsweek in an email on Friday. "If they are anything like the national polls, though, Biden will probably lose a couple points in these states—enough to hurt his chances, but he'll probably remain close enough that a Biden victory is within the margin of error."
When Newsweek asked Trump's spokesperson Steven Cheung how confident he is that the former president will be able to beat Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he wrote in an email on Friday: "President Trump will be your next president!"
Newsweek also reached out to the Biden campaign via email for comment.
So, how does Biden fare in these three swing states, according to the latest polling data?
Michigan
Trump currently leads Biden by 2.5 percentage points in Michigan (43.2 to 40.7 percent), according to the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight.
According to an Epic MRA poll conducted from June 21 to June 26, 600 likely voters in Michigan supported Trump over Biden by 4 percentage points (49 to 45 percent). The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Meanwhile, a P2 Insights/Building America's Future poll conducted from June 11 to 20, found that Trump lead Biden by 3 percentage points (43 to 40 percent) among 650 likely voters in Michigan when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., was also on the ballot (Kennedy received 8 percentage points). The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads again, but by a slightly smaller margin of 2.4 percentage points (43.4 to 41 percent), according to the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight.
A Cygnal poll conducted from June 27 to 28 found that 800 likely voters in Pennsylvania chose Trump over Biden by 4 percentage points (48 to 44 percent). The poll's margin of the error is plus or minus 3.45 percentage points.
Meanwhile, in a Bullfinch Group/Commonwealth Foundation poll conducted rom June 14 to 19, Biden lead Trump by 1 percentage point (45 to 44 percent) among 800 registered voters in Pennsylvania. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.46 percentage points.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Trump again leads Biden with 43 percent of support compared to the president's 41.3 percent (a 1.7 percentage point difference), according to the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight.
A Marquette University Law School Poll conducted from June 12 to 20 found that Trump and Biden are tied among 871 registered voters in Wisconsin at 50 percent. When 784 likely Wisconsin voters were asked, 51 percent said they'd vote for Biden while 49 percent said Trump. The poll's margin of error for registered voters is plus or minus 4.6 percentage points and plus or minus 4.9 percentage points for likely voters.
In the same P2 Insights/Building America's Future poll that was conducted from June 11 to 20, Trump leads Biden by 3 percentage points (45 to 42 percent) among 650 likely Wisconsin voters. Again, the margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
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Rachel Dobkin is a Newsweek reporter based in New York. Her focus is reporting on politics. Rachel joined Newsweek in ... Read more
