Joe Biden's Odds of Beating Donald Trump Hit New Low

President Joe Biden's chances of beating Donald Trump in November slipped to an all-time low of nine percent, according to bookmakers.

Polymarket, an online platform where users can place "yes" or "no" bets on the likelihood of world events, was offering single-digit election odds for the president on the evening of July 4, with Trump given a 61 percent chance of victory.

Biden's odds have since risen slightly to 13 percent, but this is still the second-lowest score Polymarket has given for the president. Trump is currently at 62 percent, five points below the Republican's all-time highest odds of 67 percent chance recorded on July 2.

Biden's low odds arrived in the wake of ongoing concerns about the president's stumbling and languished performance at the June 27 CNN debate, which prompted calls for the 81-year-old to end his reelection bid to allow another candidate to be the 2024 Democratic nominee.

Joe Biden at The White House
U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington, D.C., on July 4, 2024. Online betting company Polymarket gave Biden just a nine percent chance of winning the 2024 election. MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

The increased speculation has resulted in Polymarket not even listing Biden as the favorite to be confirmed as the Democrat's 2024 presidential candidate at the Democratic National Committee in Chicago in August.

Instead, Vice President Kamala Harris, seen as the most likely replacement should Biden withdraw from the race, is the leading Democratic candidate on a 42 percent chance, with Biden second on 36 percent.

Harris is also currently listed as having a better chance of winning the 2024 election than Biden, albeit well behind Trump (15 percent).

Newsweek reached out to the Biden-Harris campaign team via email for comment.

Polymarket is also offering odds of a 66 percent chance that Biden will drop out of the 2024 presidential race.

Biden and his team have dismissed suggestions that he will end his reelection bid in the wake of the worrying debate performance.

In a campaign email sent on Wednesday, Biden acknowledged that it has been "tough" since the debate, before adding: "Let me say this as clearly and simply as I can: I'm running."

Harris has also said she is still supporting Biden's reelection campaign.

The pair were seen holding hands with their arms in the air while watching the Independence Day fireworks from the White House on Thursday.

"Look, Joe Biden is our nominee. We beat Trump once, and we're going to beat him again," Harris previously told CBS News.

According to FiveThirtyEight's national survey average tracker, Trump currently has a 2.3-point lead over Biden in the polls (42.1 percent to 39.8).

Trump's average lead over Biden was just 0.2 percent prior to the live presidential debate on June 27.

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About the writer


Ewan Palmer is a Newsweek News Reporter based in London, U.K. His focus is reporting on US politics, domestic policy ... Read more

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