President Joe Biden has lost his polling lead in all U.S. battleground states, according to a new survey.
According to a CBS/YouGov poll of seven states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—the Democrat is now behind his Republican challenger, Donald Trump, by three points in the key swing states with 48 percent of the vote share to Trump's 51 percent.
In June, Biden was one point ahead, with 50 percent of the vote share to Trump's 49 percent, meaning the president has seen a -4 point swing in just one month.
Newsweek reached out to representatives of Biden via email for comment.
The Context
Biden is set to face former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, in November. Polls have so far shown that the results of the 2020 rematch will be tight, with the pair statistically tied or holding only marginal leads in several surveys.
What We Know
The CBS/YouGov poll of 2,826 registered voters was conducted between June 28 and July 2 and had a margin of error of +/- 2.3 points.
The poll came after Biden and Trump participated in the first presidential debate in Atlanta, Georgia, where Biden's poor performance sparked calls for him to end his campaign, including from members of his own party. During the debate, Biden spoke in a hoarse voice and gave a series of incoherent and confusing responses. The 81-year-old appeared to trail off and not finish his sentences at times.
When asked specifically about the debate, 53 percent of respondents said it made them think "worse" of Biden, 9 percent responded "better," and 38 percent reported no change in opinion.
Surveys like these are significant because the U.S. Electoral College system awards each state a certain number of votes based on population. A presidential candidate must secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success.
Nationally, the poll also found that Trump is ahead by 2 points (50 percent to 48 percent). In last month's poll, 50 percent of likely voters said they would vote for the former president, and 49 percent said they'd vote for Biden.
Meanwhile, a polling memo leaked to Puck News has suggested Trump could win a number of states, including New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico, which could lead him to win the election.
However, with some four months to go until the election, it is still too early to call it, and other polls have suggested that the two candidates are tied or that Biden is in the lead.
Views
Speaking to Newsweek previously, Todd Landman, a professor of political science at the University of Nottingham in the United Kingdom, said average polling was more accurate than a single poll.
"I prefer looking at www.fivethirtyeight.com, which uses adjusted averages across numerous polls instead of relying on one single poll," he said.
What's Next?
A second presidential debate between the 2024 candidates is scheduled for September 10.
Update 7/3/24, 11:28 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
Update 7/3/24, 12:07 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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About the writer
Kate Plummer is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics and national affairs, and ... Read more
