In Game 4 of the NBA Finals last Friday, Dallas finally got a strong game from not only Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving (the Mavs' offensive leaders combined for 50 points in just 64 total minutes of action), but also its supporting cast.
Thanks to Dereck Lively II (11 points, 12 rebounds in 22 minutes) leading a trio of bench players in double figures and 15-for-37 (40%) shooting as a team from 3-point land, the Mavericks blitzed the Celtics to make it 3-1. Dallas led Game 4 61-36 at halftime en route to a 122-84 W.
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Now, can Dallas keep its hopes of a historic comeback alive on the road in Game 5?
Boston is -6.5 on the spread, (-260 moneyline), while Dallas is +215 on the ML at FanDuel. The total for Monday's game at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC is set at 210.5 at FanDuel.
The Celtics are -3000 to win the series, compared to the Mavericks at +1300 at BetMGM, while DraftKings has Boston at -1800 and Dallas at +1000. Over at FanDuel, the Celtics are -3500 to finish the series off, and the Mavericks are +1400.
2024 NBA Finals Game 5 Spread Analysis
Given that even the most dominant NBA Finals victories rarely end in a perfect sweep, it's hard to blame anyone who has written off what happened in Game 4 as litte more than a brief delay of Boston inevitably raising the Larry O'Brien Trophy.
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But Dallas may have a real chance in Game 5, if not beyond. The Mavericks collectively managed to shoot a solid percentage on 3-pointers in Game 4 despite Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving going a combined 1-for-14 from outside.
With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined, Dallas finally had real success in the paint in Game 4 after struggling to exploit Al Horford and Xavier Tillman earlier in the series. The Mavericks scored 60 points in the paint in Game 4 and dominated the offensive glass 13-4 as Lively and Maxi Kleber were both effective while coach Jason Kidd played Daniel Gafford for just 10 minutes.
If Porzingis is sidelined again on Monday night, Dallas has a chance to successfully attack Boston inside instead of relying so heavily on Doncic and Irving to carry the load. The other reason to like Dallas to at least keep this game close is the fact that Doncic went 0-for-8 on 3-pointers in Game 5. It would be an understatement to say that Doncic is unlikely to struggle like that from outside in back-to-back elimination games.
For all that there was to like about Dallas's performance at home in Game 4, betting on Boston to lose at home would be a bold swing.
The Celtics can still score on the Mavs in a variety of ways, with or without Porzingis, and it's hard to imagine Boston getting out-hustled for the second game in a row. And while Irving and Doncic are due for a better night from downtown after struggling in Game 4, the same can be said for Boston stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They made just one of their nine 3-point attempts in Friday's loss.
It all adds up to a compelling case for Dallas to cover the spread, both in the first half and for the game. A fun, potentially lucrative play for anyone confident in Dallas starting strong but not quite finishing on top is Half Time / Full Time -- Dallas/Boston (+450) at DraftKings.
Betting Picks: Dallas first half +4 (-108) DraftKings; Dallas +6.5 (-108) DraftKings
2024 NBA Finals Game 5 Over/Under Analysis
It's been a rough series for any bettors who have insisted on backing these teams to go Over. So far, all four games in this series have gone Under:
- Game 1 Total: 196 (Boston 107, Dallas 89)
- Game 2 Total: 203 (Boston 105, Dallas 98)
- Game 3 Total: 205 (Boston 106, Dallas 99)
- Game 4 Total: 206 (Dallas 122, Boston 84)
Despite that, the Over/Under in Game 5 in Boston is 210.5. That Over is worth a look if you expect Dallas to continue to improve its scoring against the Celtics' D in Game 5, though.
Consider that the Mavericks have not only improved their scoring in every game this series, and their offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) has steadily climbed since the Finals got underway -- from 97.6 (Game 1) to 105.8 (Game 2) to 109.7 (Game 3) to 131.7 (Game 4).
As long as Dallas executes its offense as well it did in Games 2-4, it should find itself in a close game in the final minutes.
More importantly -- at least for bettors eyeing the total -- the way the Mavs' offensive rating has trended up makes Dallas Team Total Over 108.5 (-115 at FanDuel) a solid bet. After an uncharacteristically high-scoring Game 4 for Dallas, and an unusually poor night from Boston, the Dallas Team Total Over is a better bet than the Over/Under.
Pick: Dallas Team Total Over 108.5 (-115) FanDuel
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About the writer
Tyler Everett is a longtime sportswriter who turned his attention to sports betting back in 2019. He has been breaking ... Read more
