The Presidential Debate Doesn't Matter | Opinion

On Thursday night, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will face off for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle. While this event is sure to generate media attention and public interest, it's crucial to temper expectations about its impact. Presidential debates play a role in our democratic discourse, but their influence on election outcomes is often overstated.

At no point in American history has a presidential debate significantly changed the trajectory or outcome of an election. Consider recent cycles—in 2016, despite controversial debate performances, Trump secured victory. In 2012, Barack Obama's lackluster first debate against Mitt Romney didn't derail his re-election. The Bush-Gore debates of 2000, memorable for their quirks, didn't determine the outcome of that razor-thin election.

Even most iconic debate moments—Ronald Reagan's 1984 quip about Walter Mondale's "youth and inexperience" or Lloyd Bentsen's "You're no Jack Kennedy" line to Dan Quayle—are etched in our political memory, but didn't fundamentally shift those races.

Even the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate is more complex than popular narratives suggest. John F. Kennedy's telegenic appearance impressed TV viewers; radio listeners often favored Richard Nixon. Ultimately, Kennedy's narrow victory hinged on factors beyond the debate stage.

We continue to place such emphasis on debates due to a combination of media narratives, our appetite for political theater, and a desire for meme-able one-liners in the messy reality of electoral politics. Debates tend to reinforce existing views rather than change them.

This is particularly relevant for 2024. Both Biden and Trump are well-known figures with established public personas. Voters have had years to form opinions about their character, policies, and leadership styles. A strong debate performance or notable gaffe might shift perceptions at the margins and offer a bump in the polls, but is unlikely to cause massive voter realignment.

Debates do serve important functions in our democracy, providing a rare opportunity for candidates to engage directly, and allowing voters to compare their temperaments, quick-thinking abilities, and policy knowledge. Debates can also bring important issues to the forefront and occasionally produce moments of genuine insight or clarity.

However, the factors which truly determine elections are often more systemic and long-term—economic conditions, national security concerns, demographic shifts, and grassroots efforts. These elements shape voter preferences over months and years, not in a single evening of television.

Sure, there's an outsized possibility that Biden will land a knockout blow or Trump will implode on stage. However, it won't make a difference come November. The election will be won through policy proposals that address real concerns of Americans, not through soundbites, viral moments, or newly minted nicknames.

In our fragmented media landscape, fewer Americans than ever will watch the full debate; most will experience it through selective clips on social media or partisan cable commentary, further diminishing any potential impact.

While the Biden-Trump debate will undoubtedly generate headlines and water cooler fodder, let's keep it in perspective. History has shown us that not one presidential candidate has won or lost because of a single debate performance.

Thursday night's debate will be no different. It will serve as a moment of national dialogue later edited into bite-sized pieces turned into campaign ads and TikTok videos. The course of our democracy is charted through ongoing civic participation and voter engagement with the substantive issues that shape our nation's future, not two hours of televised political theater.

Mary Anna Mancuso is a political strategist.

The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.