Putin Has 'Limited' Ability To Stop Attacks On Russian Ships

Moscow has a "limited" ability to stop Houthi attacks in the Red Sea on vessels carrying Russian cargo, despite striking a deal with the Iranian-linked group to leave the ships alone, a maritime risk firm has told Newsweek.

British maritime security firm Ambrey says in reality Houthi actions are beyond the control any such agreement seeks to exert over their aggression, and safety cannot be relied on for Russia in areas where the rebels are active.

For his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has relied on Moscow's close links with Iran, which backs the Houthi militants controlling a large part of Yemen. But assurances by the Houthis not to target vessels linked to Russia—as well as China—have not stopped these countries' ships being caught up in the Yemeni group's operations to disrupt maritime trade in the region.

Since November, the Houthis have launched drones and missiles at Western commercial ships in response to Israel's war in Gaza and in solidarity with the "Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank." They say they target commercial vessels with links to Israel, although many vessels have no clear links to the country.

In response, many shipping firms have diverted vessels from the Suez Canal to the longer route around Africa, disrupting global trade, although Russian vessels, including tankers with Russian oil and container ships bound for Russia's ports, have managed to sail through the region unscathed.

However, in January, Houthi militants mistakenly targeted a tanker carrying Russian oil southeast of Yemen's port city of Aden, according to Ambrey. A Chinese-owned tanker Huang Pu carrying Russian oil was targeted in March.

Ambrey's regional analyst for the Middle East and the Indian Ocean, Daniel Mueller, said that the Houthis had given assurances to Russia and China in January and March about not striking their vessels in the restive region but "Houthi actions have diminished the reliability of their promise of safe navigation."

He said Houthis have targeted Chinese-owned shipping due to perceived links to Israel, U.K., U.S., or Israeli trade. "Vessels with Russian cargo or destined for Iran have also been subject to targeting," he told Newsweek, "Israeli, U.K., or U.S. affiliations may outweigh any Chinese or Russian link."

This week, maritime authorities said the Houthis used missiles and an explosive-laden remote-controlled boat to sink the Liberian flagged and Greek-owned Tutor coal carrier on June 12, after it had completed a port call in Russia.

Bloomberg reported in March that the deal between the Houthis and Russia and China to leave their vessels alone was in exchange for Beijing and Moscow's support for the Yemeni group at the United Nations.

But Mueller said, "political pressure by Russia or China to end the Houthi attacks on shipping or guarantee the safety of Chinese and Russian interests appears to be limited.

"The limited effectiveness of the Houthi guarantee to Russian and Chinese shipping make an adequate risk assessment including a thorough vessel affiliation check vital," he said, "subsequent activities indicate that China has not been able to convince Iran or the Houthi to cease or reduce their operations."

Houthi attacks have had a big impact on maritime trade in the region. Container shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean was down by 66 percent between December 2023 and February 2024 as more companies take the route around the Cape of Good Hope.

Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Chinese foreign ministries for comment.