NBA Finals Game 4 Predictions: Can Mavericks Pull off the Improbable Against Celtics?

The Boston Celtics lead the Dallas Mavericks 3-0 in their best-of-seven NBA Finals series. On Friday night, Boston has the opportunity to extend its NBA record for most-ever championships from 17 (a tally for which it is currently tied with the Los Angeles Lakers) to 18, as it could close out the Mavericks in Dallas and sweep the series.

More news: Celtics Reveal Kristaps Porzingis Status for NBA Finals Game 4 vs Mavericks

Boston has been excessively dominant thus far throughout these playoffs. The team has gone 15-2 thus far in the postseason, and has stunningly not lost a single game among its last 10 contests. The team's top six players have looked pretty much unbeatable together, and the Celtics have only had access to all six of those players for five of the team's 17 overall playoff battles.

For the Mavericks, every game from here on out is a must-win. No team in league history has ever come back from such a series disadvantage and actually won it all, though multiple clubs have at least won three games in a row to stretch a series to a seventh game.

So can Dallas actually do the improbable and win it all? That effort starts on Friday night at 5:30 p.m. PT/8:30 p.m. ET, and it hinges on the improvement of basically all of the Mavericks' role players.

Here are our top predictions for the evening's festivities.

The Boston Celtics Will Capture Their 1st NBA Championship in 16 Years

Boston's young core of All-Star forwards Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum has enjoyed multiple deep playoff runs, including a pair alongside now-Mavericks All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving in 2018 and 2019. Led by this terrific two-way duo, the Celtics have made one prior Finals berth, in 2022, but have yet to win it all. Team president Brad Stevens has done a great job of complimenting this dynamic duo over the last several years, trading for All-Defensive guard Derrick White in 2022 (just prior to that first Finals run for this group), plus All-Defensive guard Jrue Holiday and star center Kristaps Porzingis ahead of the 2023-24 season. Stevens also traded to re-acquire big man Al Horford in 2021. While he was still an All-Star, Horford had signed on with Boston as a free agent to form a prior iteration of the club in 2016, since emerging as a beloved two-way figure. The 38-year-old has been a critical contributor as the team's sixth man, having started for most of the playoffs with Porzingis sidelined due to multiple ailments.

Even when Porzingis was ruled out for Game 3 (making Horford the fill-in starter) and the series had shifted to Dallas for the first time, the Mavericks struggled to generate much offense beyond stars Irving and Doncic. The team did manage a massive turnaround during the second half, closing the gap from a 21-point deficit to a single possession at one point, but strong passing and clutch buckets helped seal a 106-99 victory all the same. Now, with Boston smelling blood, look for a balanced two-way effort to propel the Celtics to a game and series win.

Jaylen Brown Will Enjoy Another Excellent Scoring Night, Securing Finals MVP

Although Tatum is generally considered the best player on the Celtics, Brown has enjoyed the better playoff run. The 6-foot-6 swingman is averaging 24.3 points on 55.1 percent shooting from the field and 70 percent shooting from the foul line, six rebounds, 5.7 assists, two steals, and 1.3 blocks across 40.4 minutes per game in the series, while providing some terrific perimeter defense. Holiday had looked like the team's best two-way player through its first two Finals games. He's had a terrific run, serving as one of the team's lead playmakers while also totally disrupting Irving at the other end. All told, the two-time All-Star is averaging 15.7 points on .594/.417/1.000 shooting splits, 7.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and one steal through three Finals games.

Tatum, the team's lone All-NBA selection this year, has been the primary target of Dallas' defensive ire, and has struggled mightily to score, though he's still playing well enough defensively and as a passer. He's averaging 17 points on .316/.286/.750 shooting splits, 10 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game.

This award is Brown's to lose and, barring huge outbursts from Holiday or Tatum, he should be able to do just that on Friday night.

PJ Washington Will Step Up... But It Will Be Too Late

Dallas' third-best scorer throughout the playoffs, the 6-foot-7 trade deadline acquisition is averaging 14.7 points on 42.4 percent shooting, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.3 assists, but his jumper from beyond the arc has abandoned him. He's connecting on just 28.6 percent of his 4.7 triple tries a night, a costly drop from the 36.3 percent conversion rate he was hitting on 6.6 triple tries through the first three rounds of the playoffs.

Look for the former Charlotte Hornet to be featured more — but look for it not to be nearly enough against a Celtics team that has been roundly out-shooting Dallas all series.