Donald Trump's Chances of Winning Election Suddenly Slip

The presidential race has remained tight in the run-up to November's election, and with four months to go, Donald Trump appears to have lost a slight edge, the most recent polling analysis shows.

On Sunday, experts at the polling firm FiveThirtyEight released the results of a string of election simulations that show Trump winning 51 times out of 100. Though the former president is still narrowly beating his Democratic opponent, President Joe Biden, previous simulations showed him performing slightly better. When the same method was applied on July 3, Trump won 53 times out of 100 simulated elections.

Biden, 81, and Trump, 78, are both seeking a second shot at the White House later this year. With the presidential election scheduled for November 5, the candidates are out on the campaign trail in what is proving to be a bitterly contested race.

The candidates have accused each other of not being fit to stand, and Trump—the first former U.S. president to be convicted of criminal charges—is also facing a string of legal woes.

The election analysis technique used by FiveThirtyEight involves 1,000 simulations of elections—using polling, economic and demographic data—to see who wins.

The most recent set of simulations showed that Trump won 511 out of 1,000 elections, Biden won 486 elections, and no winner could be declared in three elections. That equates to Trump winning 51 times out of 100, while Biden won 49 times out of 100.

In Wednesdays' results, Trump won 530 simulated elections, Biden won 467 elections, and no winner could be declared in three simulations. That equated to Trump winning 53 times out of 100, while Biden won 47 times out of 100.

Newsweek has contacted representatives for Trump and Biden for comment by email.

The discrepancy between the two sets of simulations may indicate that Trump's popularity is waning. However, Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight's senior election analyst, said the election is "a pure toss-up" this far from November 5.

"Four months out from Election Day, the 2024 presidential election is a pure toss-up," he said in the polling analysis. "Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 486 out of 1,000 of our model's simulations of how the election could go, while former President Donald Trump wins in 511 of our simulations. There is still a small chance of the pure chaos scenario: In 3 simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives."

The lead has been seesawing between the two candidates for months. While Trump took an initial polling hit after he was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records in relation to a hush-money payment made to an adult film actor, he subsequently regained the lead following Biden's disastrous performance at the first presidential debate.

Biden received a boost last week when new economic data showed 206,000 jobs were added in June, which effectively saw him "counteracting Trump's gains in the polls," Rakich said.

Trump's convictions do not seem to have discouraged his key voter base, with one CBS News/YouGov poll suggesting it would not deter most people from voting for him. Since the historic verdict, polls have been split as to whether Trump's felony convictions have damaged or perhaps even strengthened his chances of winning the 2024 presidential election.