The Financial Times on Saturday reported that Xi Jinping in April of last year told European Union Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that the U.S. was, in the words of the paper, "trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan." The Chinese leader described the U.S. tactic as a "trick," but the FT reported that he said he "would not take the bait."
As Brussels-based Theresa Fallon of the Centre for Russia Europe Asia Studies told me in response to the FT report, Xi is "sounding increasingly unhinged."
We do not know if the Chinese leader believed what he said or why he said it. We can say, however, that none of the explanations are good.
There are many possible reasons for the Chinese ruler's startling comment. For one thing, he may be simply out of touch. "If Xi genuinely believes that the U.S. actively seeks conflict with China over Taiwan, then concerns that Xi has created an information vacuum or is otherwise getting poor council from subordinates are, worryingly, true," said Jude Blanchette of the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies to the FT. "Whatever the explanation for Xi's comments, it's clear that the decision-making environment—and the information feeding into it—is being warped, either by Xi's lieutenants, or by his own autocratic behavior."
All dictators suffer from poor information flows, and absolute dictators even more so. Xi may not yet wield absolute power, but he nonetheless has demanded absolute obedience and therefore has created an environment where discordant views have been banned and information severely restricted.
Of course, Xi may have been devious rather than oblivious, trying to hold America responsible for an invasion that he had been planning to launch. This is perhaps something he learned from Vladimir Putin, who blamed Ukraine for his attack on that country.
Xi is certainly an aggressor. He has, after all, been waging proxy wars on three continents—Europe in Ukraine, Africa in its northern areas, and Asia in the Middle East. He has also been sending troops deep into Indian-controlled territory in the Himalayas, and he is pressuring both Taiwan and the Philippines with belligerent tactics that could trigger war.
There is, however, another explanation, which puts Xi in a different light. Charles Burton of the Prague-based Sinopsis think tank compares the Chinese supremo to Ah-Q, the famous Chinese archetype from the short story by China's 20th century literary giant, Lu Xun. "Lu Xun describes someone who chooses not to face up to reality and deceives himself into believing he is successful, or has unjustified beliefs of superiority over others," Burton, a former Canadian diplomat in Beijing, tells me.
"Xi Jinping's trademark was his utter confidence that under his signature Stalinist program, China would rapidly rise to surpass the United States as the dominant global superpower," Burton points out. "Unfortunately for him, before dethroning America, he ran out of everything but hubris. He can pick on weak targets, but China's failing economy and corrupt military have shattered Mr. Xi's China dream of replacing the United States of America."
Xi's successive military purges last year, especially in the Rocket Force, which is crucial to the annexation of Taiwan, make clear that the People's Liberation Army is in disarray. The Chinese military, therefore, is not ready to cross the Taiwan Strait in force.
"Xi now realizes that he is being profoundly let down by the military officers that he naively envisioned would lead him to historic glory," notes Burton. "Xi understands that bringing Taiwan into the embrace of the Motherland on his watch is not the given that he built his legitimating prestige on. So he re-defines his backing off from a Taiwan war as strength, not weakness, by claiming that he is triumphantly avoiding a U.S. trap to weaken China through goading him into taking the bait of forcing a military confrontation that China would inevitably lose."
In this regard, Xi reportedly told von der Leyen that war, in the words of the FT, would "destroy many of China's achievements and undermine his goal of achieving a 'great rejuvenation' by 2049." That, of course, is true, but the tone of that reported comment is not consistent with his public words and actions.
Xi has based his legitimacy on annexing Taiwan. "Looking further ahead, the issue of political disagreements that exist between the two sides must reach a final resolution, step by step, and these issues cannot be passed on from generation to generation," he declared in October 2013, within the first year as ruler of China.
Xi Jinping has staked his rule on taking the island, creating a marker that opponents can now use against him.
Perhaps that is why Xi can't stop talking about war in public addresses. "Dare to Fight," repeated often, could be his favorite motto.
Moreover, he is fast preparing for war. He is engaged in the fastest military buildup since the Second World War, purging officers opposed to war, trying to sanction-proof his regime, stockpiling grain and other commodities, surveying the U.S. for nuclear weapons strikes, and mobilizing civilians for war.
And Xi's ambitions are large. He maintains Taiwan, Japan's Senkaku islets in the East China Sea, large parts of India, and most of the South China Sea are China's. His regime is laying the basis to claim Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu chain from Japan and Vladivostok and surrounding areas from Russia.
Throughout this century, Xi has been propagating the imperial-era notion that China has the right to rule the entire planet, and since 2017 his officials have been saying that the moon and Mars should be considered parts of the People's Republic.
There has never been a more ambitious aggressor in history—at least in public.
We don't know what Xi Jinping in fact intends. He could, as Fallon thinks, be merely trying to drive a wedge between Europe and America. He could, as Burton, suggests, be unwilling to take on a determined foe. And maybe he is being deceptive, about to launch an all-out invasion of Taiwan.
Is Xi Jinping with his words merely acting? Or is he about to act? We now have to assume the worst. We know in any event that he is obsessed with Taiwan.
Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Coming Collapse of China and China Is Going to War. Follow him on X @GordonGChang.
The views expressed in this article are the writer's own.
