What to expect at the Oscars: The bomb, the bombshell, and the possible comeback
AILSA CHANG, HOST:
All right. It's time to grab your ballot and mark your picks for the 96th Academy Awards Sunday night. What do you think - best actress for Emma Stone in "Poor Things" or Lily Gladstone in "Killers Of The Flower Moon"? And what will the Academy's new diversity and inclusion standards mean for the ceremony? Well, we figure if anybody can tell us, it's critic Bob Mondello.
BOB MONDELLO, BYLINE: Some things are pretty clear. "Oppenheimer's" night has arrived, meaning Barbenheimer's day is done.
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "BARBIE")
MARGOT ROBBIE: (As Barbie) You guys ever think about dying?
MONDELLO: At least that's the way award season has been playing out so far. Greta Gerwig's living doll of a Barbie movie handily won the hot pink versus dark brooding competition at the box office, raking in $1.4 billion as the year's biggest smash.
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "BARBIE")
HARI NEF: (As Barbie) This is the best day ever.
ROBBIE: (As Barbie) It is the best day ever. So is yesterday, and so is tomorrow and every day from now until forever.
MONDELLO: It also dominated the year's memes and became the most successful woman-directed film in history. But now, judging from the big winners at the Golden Globes...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #1: "Oppenheimer."
MONDELLO: ...BAFTA...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #2: "Oppenheimer."
MONDELLO: ...Critics Choice...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #3: "Oppenheimer."
MONDELLO: ...And Hollywood's guild ceremonies...
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #4: "Oppenheimer."
MONDELLO: ...It'll be Christopher Nolan's portrait of the father of the atom bomb that will be raking in the gold statuettes.
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "OPPENHEIMER")
CILLIAN MURPHY: (As J. Robert Oppenheimer) I don't know if we can be trusted with such a weapon.
MONDELLO: Host Jimmy Kimmel will start the evening's festivities an hour earlier than usual. That's one of several strategies the Motion Picture Academy hopes will lure TV viewers back at something approaching pre-pandemic levels, meaning an audience above 30 million. The last three years have averaged less than half that. But there is reason for optimism.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON #5: Live from Beverly Hills...
MONDELLO: The academy, responding to hashtags like #OscarsSoWhite and #OscarsSoMale, has diversified a pool of voters that skews heavily white and male, not to mention old and American.
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "POOR THINGS")
EMMA STONE: (As Bella Baxter) I am Bella Baxter, and there is a world to enjoy, circumnavigate.
MONDELLO: "Poor Things" is one of the best picture nominees that this more diverse pool will be voting for. And for the first time, those nominees have had to satisfy mandatory inclusion standards. This has not resulted in a more egalitarian workplace. The Annenberg Center reports that while "Barbie" ruled the box office, 2023 had the fewest movies with actresses in leading roles in a decade. Still, there's some indication that inclusion is at least working for the awards telecast. Four of the year's 10 best picture nominees are partly not in English, including "Anatomy Of A Fall."
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "ANATOMY OF A FALL")
UNIDENTIFIED ACTOR: (As character, speaking French).
SANDRA HULLER: (As Sandra) I was honest about it.
MONDELLO: Seven of the 20 acting nominees are performers of color, including Jeffrey Wright in "American Fiction."
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "AMERICAN FICTION")
JOHN ORTIZ: (As Arthur) They want a Black book.
JEFFREY WRIGHT: (As Thelonius "Monk" Ellison) They have a Black book. I'm Black, and it's my book.
MONDELLO: And the best actress category has already made history for including "Killers Of The Flower Moon's" Lily Gladstone...
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON")
LILY GLADSTONE: (As Mollie Burkhart) I ought to kill these white men who killed my family.
MONDELLO: ...The first Native American performer ever nominated for an acting award, none of which will matter much if no one's watching. Happily, the best predictor of Academy Award viewership has always been whether audiences have seen the nominees. This year, with most contenders already streaming, the telecast is well-positioned in that respect, even if some of the horse-race aspect is missing. Some years, the Oscars feel like a photo finish - 2017, say, when the audience was cheering a win by "La La Land" only to discover the wrong envelope had been opened.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
MARC PLATT: This is not a joke. I'm afraid they read the wrong thing. "Moonlight" - best picture.
MONDELLO: Other years like this one, the Oscars have a clear front-runner. It'll be downright startling if "Oppenheimer" does not win best picture, but as it's made almost a billion dollars. that means a lot of people will be rooting for it.
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "OPPENHEIMER")
MURPHY: (As J. Robert Oppenheimer) The world will remember this day.
MONDELLO: Someone else who will remember this day - "The Holdovers'" Da'Vine Joy Randolph.
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "THE HOLDOVERS")
DA'VINE JOY RANDOLPH: (As Mary Lamb) You don't tell a boy that's been left behind at Christmas that nobody wants him. What's wrong with you?
MONDELLO: Randolph has so consistently taken home best supporting actress at other award ceremonies that if her grieving cafeteria lady isn't recognized, I'll go out and buy a hat so I can eat it. But a goodly number of other awards do still seem up for grabs, including big ones like best actor and actress and animated feature...
(SOUNDBITE OF FILM, "SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE")
SHAMEIK MOORE: (As Miles Morales) So wait a minute. There's an elite crew with all the best spider people in it.
MONDELLO: ...Where the digitizers of "Across The Spider-Verse" are competing with the master of hand-drawn anime, Hayao Miyazaki, which is to say there's still wriggle room on your Oscar pool ballot and therefore, Hollywood fervently hopes, reason for you to tune in on Sunday night. I'm Bob Mondello.
(SOUNDBITE OF SONG, "THE FIRE INSIDE")
BECKY G: (Singing) Oh, oh, you got places to go. You're not going there slow.
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