449
FXUS64 KCRP 131122
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

We remain under the influence of mid and upper level troughing
today which will keep rain chances in our forecast. This
troughing is locked in between strong high pressure over the
Rockies and high pressure over the Southeast US. Within this
troughing, a band of vorticity will lift north through the area
today and will be the focus for convection. The evolution of
convection today is a bit questionable, but expect isolated
coverage across the area this morning becoming more scattered as
we head through mid-day, and becoming focused more across northern
portions of the area for the later afternoon, then a decrease as
we lose daytime heating this evening. Once this gets out of here,
the southeast US ridge will build into Texas and bring quieter
weather for the second half of the weekend.

Temperatures today will be a bit higher than yesterday for most of
the region, but think the Victoria Crossroads still doesn`t make
it much above 90. By Sunday, temperatures will be near normal.
Will carry a slight chance for showers in the Victoria Crossroads
tomorrow due to some lingering moisture, but will not anticipate
much.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Key Messages:

- Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts with
a major risk developing across the Brush Country by mid-week.

A mid level high pressure system currently centered across the
northern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern U.S., is progged to build
westward this upcoming week and bring drier mid levels across S TX.
This will limit rain chances and lead to a warming trend. Rain
chances are very low (<5%) Monday and Tuesday with perhaps a rogue
shower along the sea breeze. Moisture increases slightly the latter
part of the week with the high pressure shifting slightly eastward,
but rain chances remain low (10-30%) with the main forcing being the
sea breeze combined with daytime instability. The highest rain
chances are expected across the Victoria Crossroads the latter half
of the week where instability is progged to be strongest. Models are
also indicating a weak frontal boundary stalling just north of the
CWA next Friday which would also provide low level convergence
across the Victoria area.

Main concern for next week continues to be the heat. A gradual
warming trend will lead to highs in the lower 90s along the inland
coastal areas to around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday
through next weekend. Humid conditions combined with these higher
temperatures will lead to heat indices of 105 to 109 beginning
Tuesday. Some locations across the Coastal Bend and Brush Country
could briefly see heat indices of 110-114.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Showers and storms will gradually increase in coverage today. Will
continue a VC mention for all sites at times today. Convection
will gradually shift north, lingering the longest at VCT. Some
MVFR to IFR CIGS noted this morning, but largely VFR conditions
are expected and will continue through the day, with the exception
of brief CIGS possible with storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected for the upcoming
week along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the
latter half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  78  93  77 /  40   0   0   0
Victoria          89  75  92  75 /  50  20  20   0
Laredo            95  76  97  77 /  10  10   0   0
Alice             93  75  96  74 /  40  10   0   0
Rockport          89  82  93  81 /  40  10  10   0
Cotulla           93  77  98  77 /  30  10   0   0
Kingsville        92  77  94  76 /  30   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       90  82  90  81 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...PH/83