Why Rishi Sunak needs to win over Boomers to stop Keir Starmer

Rishi Sunak could clinch an extra 2million votes if his bold gamble to win over older votes pays off, MailOnline analysis suggests. The Tories face a historic drubbing on July 4, with Sir Keir Starmer expected to storm his way into No10 with a landslide even bigger than Tony Blair secured in 1997.

Mr Sunak has already promised to re-introduce national service for teenagers and vowed to introduce a 'Triple Lock Plus' to cut tax for pensioners in his last-ditch efforts to win over boomers - broadly defined as those born between 1946 and 1964. Polling currently suggests the Tories are on track to clinch just 35 per cent of the 65+ vote, with Labour having eaten into a traditional Conservative stronghold.

Should this happen on election night, this would transpire to Mr Sunak's party claiming around 3.6million votes from the age group. However, recent polls have suggested Reform is also winning over older voters since the return of Nigel Farage. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey released last night showed Reform ahead of the Tories in the oldest age group.

By contrast, Boris Johnson was estimated to have won two-thirds of the 65+ cohort when the Tories demolished Jeremy Corbyn 's Labour in 2019. Political commentators say the support of the 'grey vote' helped to give them a majority in the Commons. Mr Sunak could steal roughly 1million votes from Sir Keir if the Tories were able to claw back 10 points of support between now and the election. Even in a more likely scenario, where they shaved 5 points off Labour, they would pick up around 500,000 votes.

Should the Conservatives be able to pinch a similar proportion of voters from Reform, they would be able to get around 5.6million 65+ ballots on the night itself, according to MailOnline analysis of 2022 population figures and official turn-out estimates over the past three elections. Although stealing older voters from Labour and Reform wouldn't neccessarily translate into seats, Tory strategists believe it may allow them to cling on to dozens of constituencies they risk losing. Any votes for Reform will likely dent Tory majorities in the seats they currently hold and give Sir Keir extra power on the night.

Nigel Farage 's shock return to frontline politics by deciding to lead Reform and stand as an MP, however, has seen the party surge to within two points of the Tories. Polls in recent days have sent shockwaves through No10, adding to fears that a disastrous wipe-out is lurking around the corner. Giles Kenningham, a former Tory media chief, told MailOnline history showed propping up the 'grey vote' was the difference between triumph and disaster for the Tories. 'It's always the case with that demographic, they are more likely to vote Tory, and also have high turnout,' he said. 'It's all about trying to reinforce, hold it up.'

Mr Kenning said the other motivation for CCHQ would be 'stopping the bleed to Reform', which is appealing to the older generation. He predicted the Conservatives would target older people with a message similar to 2015, when David Cameron warned voters they could 'go to bed with Nigel Farage and wake up with Ed Miliband'. He also highlighted the experience of 2017, when the wheels came off the Tory campaign after ex-PM Theresa May gambled on a tough social care policy.

'You could argue when the 2017 campaign started unravelling, it was social care,' he said. Mr Kenningham said in 2015 and 2017 Labour relied on younger people to sway the vote, and were 'disappointed'. 'They overestimated the turnout,' he added. 'I don't know whether it will be different this time, but a lot of young people weren't registered to vote. There's always higher turnout with older people.' Keiran Pedley, a pollster at Ipsos, said it was 'common sense' for the Tories to make a play for older voters, given that is their traditional base.

One former Cabinet minister told the Spectator that Mr Sunak was aware that he 'can't win' but could massively close the gap to Labour by 'love-bombing the pensioners', who have backed both moves already announced by the Tories. Under the bombshell national service plan, school-leavers would be obliged to spend a year in a full-time Armed Forces role or volunteering with organisations such as the police or NHS. Under Mr Sunak's plan, 18-year-olds will be given a choice between a full-time placement in the Armed Forces for 12 months or spending one weekend a month for a year volunteering' in their community.

Mr Sunak, who unveiled the shock move in The Mail on Sunday , said the 'reinvented' scheme would 'provide life-changing opportunities for our young people'. The plan to reintroduce National Service was drawn up in secret, with only Mr Sunak's close advisers – understood to include former Tory leader William Hague – privy to the details. In their confidential 40-page plan, advisers argued that the growing international threats posed by countries such as Russia and China needed to be addressed by beefing up our Armed Forces.

Nearly 750,000 18 to 24-year-olds are currently out of work, and this age group is disproportionately represented in the criminal justice system, advocates also say. National Service was first introduced after the Second World War for all able-bodied men between the ages of 18 and 21. More than two million were conscripted to the Armed Forces between 1949 and 1963. Labour branded the scheme a 'gimmick' and Mr Farage said it was a 'joke' and 'totally impractical'.

As part of another effort to win over older voters, Mr Sunak announced pensioners will never have to pay income tax on their state pension under plans to introduce a 'Triple Lock Plus'. The PM promised to increase the personal allowance threshold for those aged over 66. The Tories will maintain the triple lock, which ensures the state pension increases in line with the highest of either inflation, average wage growth or 2.5 per cent every year. But they will also guarantee that pensioners' personal allowances will always be higher than the level of the new state pension. After unveiling the plan, Mr Sunak said it showed the Tories are 'on the side of pensioners'.

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