'Reformist' Masoud Pezeshkian Wins Iran Election in Blow to Ayatollah

The victory of Massoud Pezeshkian in Iran's presidential election over hard-line conservative rival Saeed Jalili has been greeted with cautious optimism internationally about what it might mean for Tehran's strained ties with the West.

Pezeshkian has pledged no major changes to Iran's Shiite theocracy and, in any case, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has the final say over the Islamic Republic's policy. But a regional expert told Newsweek that Pezeshkian could usher in "some important changes" in foreign policy.

After a historically low first round turnout, Pezeshkian secured 53.3 percent of the vote, compared with Jalili's 44.3 percent in the election prompted by the death of previous president Ebrahim Raisi, and other officials, in a helicopter crash in May.

In a post on X, formerly Twitter, Pezeshkian wrote, according to a translation, "the difficult path ahead will not be smooth" and "I swear on my honor that I will not leave you alone on this path."

Former New Zealand prime minister Helen Clark wrote on X that it was "positive that new President wants to end Iran's isolation & has criticized vicious morality police."

Former executive director of Human Rights Watch, Kenneth Roth, posted: "The people of Iran have made clear they want change by electing a reformist president. Now will the ruthless hard-liners who control the government let them?"

Ali Vaez, director of Iran Project at the International Crisis Group (ICG), said on X that voters backed the candidate "who warns the system has gone too far instead of the candidate who believes the system has not gone far enough."

"His victory does break a streak of successive national elections that saw the conservative camp tighten their grip across all of the system's centers of power," Vaez added.

Pezeshkian's win comes amid an advancing nuclear program, a U.S. election which could impact how Tehran and Washington might revive the Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) from which Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018.

Trita Parsi, vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told Newsweek in emailed comments Pezeshkian and his team are unlikely to make much difference to Iran's regional policies which will continue to be driven by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

But he may adopt "a much more visible and forward-leaning diplomatic strategy in the region" which could include the war in Gaza between Israel and the Hamas group, which Tehran backs. He said and Pezeshkian is also likely to bring back the foreign policy team which had negotiated the JCPOA under then president Hassan Rouhani who served between 2013 and 2021.

"Some important changes in Iran's foreign policy are likely," Parsi said, noting how Pezeshkian has spoken about the need for Iran to resolve its tensions with the West through direct negotiations rather than talks through mediators.

"Pezeshkian made this call within the context of Trump potentially becoming the next president of the United States," he said. "This would be a significant shift if the Iranians agreed to directly engage with the U.S. even with Trump as president."

However, this in itself will not revive the Iran nuclear deal. "Key factors have changed in both the U.S. and in Iran, making the old bargain unattractive to both sides," added Parsi, "but political will may now exist—on the Iranian side at least, for a new bargain."

"But even if the JCPOA cannot be revived, there may still be other arrangements that the U.S. and Iran can pursue," Parsi said.

Hamidreza Azizi, a research fellow at German think tank SWP Berlin, told Newsweek the team in charge of Pezeshkian's foreign policy was mostly the same as the one leading Rouhani's foreign policy with former foreign minister Javad Zarif.

"It is expected that, at least in terms of policy planning, there is this desire to go back to the pre-Raisi foreign policy priorities," Azizi said.

However, the strategic orientation of the country in foreign and domestic politics are set by the supreme leader, especially when it comes to negotiations with the U.S.

"We can expect that diplomatic interactions between Iran and the West may gain some traction," Azizi, said, "but on the other hand, we shouldn't forget we have a parliament still dominated by ultra hard-liners who are allies of Jalili."

"So now they probably have even more incentive to sabotage any sort of foreign policy initiative that the new administration may have."