The formula for the perfect penalty, revealed - as England prepares to take on the Netherlands in the Euro 2024 semi-final tonight
- MailOnline talks to the 'world's leading expert on the psychology of penalties'
- READ MORE: Did Geoff Hurst's goal cross the line? Scientists give their verdict
Tonight, football fans across England will nervouly tune in to see if Gareth Southgate's squad have what it takes to beat Netherlands in the Euro 2024 semi-final.
But as Saturday's quarter final match showed, 120 minutes of football is often not enough to separate two sides – leading to a nail-biting penalty shootout.
So, how can players ensure they take the perfect penalty?
Geir Jordet, a professor of psychology and football at Norwegian School of Sport Sciences in Oslo, and 'the world's leading expert on the psychology of penalties', has studied every penalty shootout in the World Cup, Euros and the Champions League from 1976 to 2022.
Speaking to MailOnline, he has revealed his formula for success – including bravely shooting down the middle.
LOOK UP!
As anyone watching England's shootout success against Switzerland on Saturday will have noticed, striker Ivan Toney did not take his eye off the keeper as he took his successful spot kick.
The benefit of this technique – known as the 'goalkeeper dependent' approach – is that it lets the player see exactly where the keeper is moving and adjust their kick accordingly at the very last moment.
This is in contrast with the more traditional 'goalkeeper independent' approach, where the player chooses in advance where they're going to kick it – and religiously sticks with their decision.
Although 'goalkeeper dependent' is not a new approach, more and more penalty takers are turning to it, according to Professor Jordet, who is author of the book 'Pressure: Lessons from the psychology of the penalty shoot out'.
Around 30-35 per cent now opt for goalkeeper dependent – up from around 10 per cent in the 1970s and 1980s, he said.
'The traditional approach is to make up your mind and never change – now we're saying the opposite,' Professor Jordet told MailOnline.
Ivan Toney of England in action during the Euro 2024 quarter-final match between England and Switzerland at Arena Dusseldorf on July 6, 2024 in Dusseldorf, Germany
Taking a penalty is surely the most nerve-wracking experience for any player – a single moment that can decide the result of an entire tournament
A 2021 study found that the goalkeeper dependent strategy has a slightly higher success rate, but Professor Jordet said it requires great emotional composure.
'The big limitation is that you have to be really good at it and have the mental clarity and composure to essentially stand over the ball with your foot raised and you still have not decided where to shoot,' he said
Looking up towards the goal rather than down towards the ground may also be perceived as a sign of confidence by the goalkeeper, which may in turn affect the keeper's response.
DON'T RUSH
Historically, penalty-takers have tended to kick the ball almost immediately when they hear the referee's whistle, almost like reacting to hearing an alarm.
But Professor Jordet's data shows that the less you rush, the more likely you are to put the ball in the back of the net from the spot.
Kicking the ball very soon after the whistle is probably so the player can 'get relief from stress', but it's 'logical' to wait much longer, he said.
'It makes sense to take a little bit more time to take at least a few seconds, collect yourself, maybe have a breathe, maybe just remind yourself what you want to do,' the academic told MailOnline.
Bukayo Saka waited a hefty eight seconds after the ref's whistle before striking his penalty against Switzerland on Saturday (pictured)
'It also makes it you less predictable for the goalkeeper – because if the goalkeeper always knows that the referee blows the whistle then you start, it's very easy [for the keeper] to mobilize all the muscles they need mobilized on the goal line.'
Usually England rush their kicks – 0.28 seconds on average after the whistle, his research found – but on Saturday the Three Lions took much longer than usual.
Toney waited seven seconds, Trent Alexander-Arnold waited six-and-a-half seconds, and Bukayo Saka waited an impressive eight seconds.
However, there may be the danger of overcooking it by waiting too long; in the Euro 2020 final, Marcus Rashford missed his spot kick after waiting 11 seconds.
Professor Jordet is author of the book 'Pressure: Lessons from the psychology of the penalty shoot out' and has published several studies about the sport
DOWN THE MIDDLE
Where exactly the penalty taker should aim for has long been a debate – whether it's top, bottom, left, right or even down the middle.
Many experts argue that the top left and top right corners are ideal targets because these spots are out of reach for even the tallest of goalkeepers.
But Professor Jordet's research suggests that going down the middle is an overlooked and effective choice.
'If you put it to the middle you have a slightly higher goal percentage than if you put it to the left or right,' he said.
The reason for this, the academic explains, is that 'very few goalkeepers dare to just stand still' – i.e. they're most likely to dive left or right.
Players are generally less inclined to shoot down the middle than they are to dive – but when they do it's often the outrageous 'panenka' technique, which takes bravery and skill.
Experts argue that the top left and top right corners are ideal targets because these spots are out of reach for even the tallest of goalkeepers
GET PLAYING TIME
As teams approach the 120th minute and the prospect of penalties becomes very real, many managers send on players who are particularly adept at spot kicks.
But a big mistake they make is waiting too late to make the switch – often meaning that the newly-substituted player doesn't even a touch of the ball before being thrust into the spotlight with penalties.
In fact, striking a ball in a shootout can be a player's first and last touch of the match.
Professor Jordet said England manager Gareth Southgate 'learnt from the experience' of the Euro 2020 final, when England were beaten on penalties at Wembley by Italy.
Then, Marcus Rashford and Jadon Sancho were brought on in the 120th minute before missing.
But against Switzerland on Saturday the latest subs – Toney and Alexander-Arnold – came on in the 109th minute and 115th minute, respectively, and both scored their kicks.
Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford prepare to come onto the pitch in the 120th minute of Euro 2020 at Wembley
YOU ARE IN CONTROL
Many believe the penalty shoot out is 'all about luck', a lottery used to separate two sides of equal ability.
Whether or not this is true, Professor Jordet claims that the 'perception of control' is key to getting the ball in the back of the net.
'The more players believe the outcome of penalties are down to chance/lottery the more likely they are to experience destructive anxiety,' he said.
Admittedly there are many factors out of a player's control that are linked to missing or having their penalty saved.
Players miss more shots when pressure is high – in other words when it's later in the shootout and the importance of putting it away is most paramount, he found.
Players miss more shots when pressure is high (late in the shootout), according to a study by Professor Jordet
Interestingly, players also tend to miss when they are older than 23 years (younger players score more), and are fatigued (they have played the full 120 minutes).
Ultimately, Professor Jordet says the penalty shootout is 'a psychological game' – and a lot of it comes down to practice.
'The players i spoke to for my book – many of which were highly specialist penalty-takers like Robert Lewandowski – they practice the kick, the leadup to the kick, the routine,' he said.
'The perfect penalty is the penalty that goes into the goal and this can be done in so many different ways and it depends on what type of goalkeeper you have against you.'
