Negotiation, Organizations & Markets
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- Working Paper
The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda
By: Livia Alfonsi, Vittorio Bassi, Imran Rasul and Elena SpadiniThe Covid-19 pandemic represents one of the most significant labor market shocks to the world economy in recent times. We present evidence from a field experiment to understand whether and why skilled and unskilled workers were differentially impacted by the shock, in the context of a low-income economy, Uganda. We leverage a panel of workers and firms, tracked from 2012 to 2022, including high frequency surveys over the pandemic. In 2013, workers were randomly assigned to receive six months of sector-specific vocational training, in one of eight high productivity sectors. We document that over the pandemic, employment and earnings margins follow V-shaped dynamics, whereby the outcomes of treated (skilled) workers are more severely impacted by lockdowns, they recover more quickly between lockdowns, and remain resilient to the shock as the economy recovers. Cumulatively over the pandemic, skilled workers spend 61% more time than controls employed in one of our study sectors, and their total earnings are 17% higher. We explore supply- and demand-side mechanisms through which the returns to skills are maintained through the crisis. We document that skilled workers are more exposed to the shock because they are more likely to be laid off during the first lockdown as firms respond to the rapid, severe and uncertain shock by immediately laying off higher earning workers. However, skilled workers recover quickly because of their greater accumulation of sector-specific experience pre-pandemic, and the certifiability of their skills that allows them to switch employers in the same sector during the crisis. Our findings have implications for understanding the returns to skills acquired through vocational training in good economic times and times of crisis.
- Working Paper
The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda
By: Livia Alfonsi, Vittorio Bassi, Imran Rasul and Elena SpadiniThe Covid-19 pandemic represents one of the most significant labor market shocks to the world economy in recent times. We present evidence from a field experiment to understand whether and why skilled and unskilled workers were differentially impacted by the shock, in the context of a low-income economy, Uganda. We leverage a panel of workers and...
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- July 2024
- Case
Negotiating in a Hurricane: John Branca and the Michael Jackson Estate
By: James K. Sebenius and Alex GreenWhen the "King of Pop," Michael Jackson, unexpectedly died in 2009, he left behind an estate that was over $500 million in debt, with largely illiquid assets, and legions of creditors poised to begin to seize assets in as soon as 60 days. The task of managing Jackson’s estate, in the role of co-executor—bitterly contested by some members of the Jackson family—fell to celebrated entertainment lawyer John Branca, who was re-hired by Jackson just two weeks prior to his death after on-and-off engagements with the entertainer since the mid-1980s. Soon after Jackson’s death, Branca’s closest colleagues and advisors recommended that he begin to sell assets, but he decided to go down a different path. This case explores the intricately executed series of negotiations Branca undertook to revive Jackson’s legacy with many initiatives including a major movie deal, lucrative multi-album recording agreements, two Cirque de Soleil shows, a Tony Award winning Broadway musical, and even more ambitious plans. While Jackson had earned about a billion dollars during his lifetime as a performer, Branca’s stewardship brought the entertainer's estate from the edge of bankruptcy a value of about three billion dollars and rising.
- July 2024
- Case
Negotiating in a Hurricane: John Branca and the Michael Jackson Estate
By: James K. Sebenius and Alex GreenWhen the "King of Pop," Michael Jackson, unexpectedly died in 2009, he left behind an estate that was over $500 million in debt, with largely illiquid assets, and legions of creditors poised to begin to seize assets in as soon as 60 days. The task of managing Jackson’s estate, in the role of co-executor—bitterly contested by some members of the...
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- 2024
- Working Paper
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei ShleiferIn a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Survey, we show that similarity can quantitatively account for the sharp post-pandemic rise in inflation expectations, particularly among the elderly. The memory-based model also accounts for how people estimate future inflation ranges and why they neglect infrequent experiences when forming point expectations. These predictions are likewise supported by the data.
- 2024
- Working Paper
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei ShleiferIn a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations and the University of Michigan’s...
About the Unit
The NOM Unit seeks to understand and improve the design and management of systems in which people make decisions: that is, design and management of negotiations, organizations, and markets. In addition, members of the group share an abiding interest in the micro foundations of these phenomena.
Our work is grounded in the power of strategic interaction to encourage individuals and organizations to create and sustain value (in negotiations, in organizations, and in markets). We explore these interactions through diverse approaches: Although many of us have training in economics, we also have members with backgrounds in social psychology, sociology, and law.
NOM seeks to apply rigorous scientific methods to real-world problems -- producing research and pedagogy that is compelling to both the academy and practitioners.
Recent Publications
The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda
- Working Paper |
- Faculty Research
Negotiating in a Hurricane: John Branca and the Michael Jackson Estate
- July 2024 |
- Case |
- Faculty Research
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
- 2024 |
- Working Paper |
- Faculty Research
Research: Speed Matters When Companies Respond to Social Issues
- July 1, 2024 |
- Article |
- Harvard Business Review (website)
Demographic 'Stickiness': The Demographic Identity of Departing Group Members Influences Who Is Chosen to Replace Them
- July 2024 |
- Article |
- Management Science
Whether to Apply
- July 2024 |
- Article |
- Management Science
Pal's Sudden Service (B)
- June 2024 |
- Supplement |
- Faculty Research
The Diversity Heuristic: How Team Demographic Composition Influences Judgments of Team Creativity
- June 2024 |
- Article |
- Management Science
Harvard Business Publishing
Seminars & Conferences
There are no upcoming events.