Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.
For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.
We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.
Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.
It is going to be a really bad weekend. All of the progress we made since Endgame came out could be erased in a week and if Toy Story 4 isn’t a monster hit, then 2019 will be in serious trouble, again. Men in Black: International led the way on Friday, but it only managed $10.4 million. Sony is projecting a $26.2 million opening weekend, which would be the studio’s biggest opening of the year so far. In fact, it would be the studio’s third biggest hit of the year after just three days. Yikes. The film���s reviews are terrible and it only managed a B from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect long legs. There are some rumors going around that the film didn’t cost as much as its official $110 million production budget, but even if those are true, this is still not a good start. Maybe it will thrive internationally.
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It was a mixed weekend at the box office with neither of the two new releases matching expectations. Not only that, but most of the top five missed estimates as well. This led to a result 5.6% lower than last weekend falling to $164 million. I was really expecting growth this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 led the way with $46.65 million, while Dark Phoenix really struggled with just $32.83 million. Aladdin was arguably the only real bright spot in the top five this weekend. Fortunately, this weekend last year was even worse and 2019 was able to win the year-over-year comparison by a whopping 37%. This allowed 2019 to close the gap between it and 2018 to just $300 million or 5.9% at $4.78 billion to $5.08 billion. That’s still a large gap, but it is far cry from where it once was.
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Neither of the two wide releases matched expectations over the weekend and in both cases, it could be the end of their respective franchises. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is earning first place with $47.11 million, which isn’t a bad result for a family film that cost $80 million to make. However, this estimate is 55% lower than the first film’s opening weekend. Internationally, it is adding $16.0 million over the weekend to its three-week total, which sits at $49.0 million. Additionally, it has yet to open in most international markets, so it should have long legs on this chart. However, it still isn’t living up to the original. Universal has to be looking at this numbers and deciding to move on from the franchise, even though this film will very likely break even sooner rather than later. Even a moderate decline for a hypothetical third film would put profitability in question.
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June might be in trouble, as both of the wide releases stumbled out of the gate missing expectations. The Secret Life of Pets 2 managed first place on Friday, but with just $16.5 million. This is 57% lower than the first film managed during its opening day. Unlike the first film, school was still in session for a lot of the film’s target audience during Friday, so that could help its legs over the weekend. Universal is projecting a $47 million opening weekend, but it might climb to $50 million. Even so, that’s still a serious decline over the first movie. The film did match the original at CinemaScore earning an A minus, so its weaker reviews aren’t going to be much of an issue. Additionally, the movie only cost $80 million to make, so even a $45 million opening won’t prevent the film from breaking even sooner rather than later.
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It could be a real race on the box office chart this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 isn’t generating as much buzz as I was expecting, while there is actually some good news surrounding Dark Phoenix’s box office chances. There’s no good news regarding its reviews, that’s for sure. Also coming out this weekend is Late Night, but it is now coming out in limited release with a wide expansion next week. That’s not a good sign. This does leave one more spot in the top five for a holdover, meaning Aladdin, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and Rocketman will all remain in the top five for at least one more weekend. This weekend last year, Ocean’s 8 opened with a decent $41.61 million and both The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix should top that. 2019 should start the month with an easy win.
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The spring doldrums continue with very few major releases and almost no big hits arriving on the home market this week. There are a couple of titles competing for Pick of the Week: Police StoryDouble-Shot and Arctic. Both are worth owning, but I went with Police Story as the Pick of the Week.
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This week, Solo: A Star Wars Story hits the home market and while the film missed expectations at the box office, it is still a big enough hit to scare away most of the competition. There are a number of releases on this week’s list that are worth picking up, like Pin Cushion, Welcome to the Dollhouse, as well as Solo itself. As for contenders for Pick of the Week, it is Fraggle Rock: The Complete Series on Blu-ray and nothing else.
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Logan is supposedly Hugh Jackman’s last film as Wolverine. Not every X-Men movie has been worth the price of admission, so if this is the end of the road, does Hugh Jackman get to go out on a high note? Or does he end his run with a whimper.
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Our predictions for Beauty and the Beast was higher than average, but even we underestimated the film’s weekend box office numbers. It fell just 48% to $90.43 million, which was more than double the second place film, Power Rangers. This one-two punch helped the overall box office earn $202 million, but this was 23% lower than last weekend. It was also 20% lower than the same weekend last year. Granted, this weekend last year was the weekend Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice debuted, so a decline like this was expected. Year-to-date, 2017 has earned $2.75 billion, putting it 6.7% or $170 million ahead of last year’s pace.
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Kong: Skull Island is the only wide release of the week, so it is the only release that had previews last night. The results were… okay. The film earned $3.7 million, which is the third-best preview result for 2017 so far. However, it is a far cry from the $9.5 million Logan earned just last week. Granted, Logan was the latest installment of twofranchises, so the Fanboy Effect was in full force, but Logan also earned betterreviews and that helped its legs. Kong’s number is slightly better than than $3.6 million Pacific Rim earned during its previews, but it is low enough that I think we should adjust our prediction for the weekend down to about $42 million. We will have a better idea where it will end up tomorrow once we have Friday’s estimates.
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I know what you are thinking. “Didn’t X-Men: Apocalypse come out on DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack in early October?” Yes. However, the screener didn’t arrive till November and that’s too late to get a review done. That said, no screeners arrived this week, so I thought I might was well write a late review rather than do nothing.
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It’s Thanksgiving weekend, which means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and of course the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. This week we will tackle first run releases, as well as franchise box sets, although there aren’t many of the latter to talk about. In fact, the best movie box set of the year includes more TV shows than movies in its running time and I’ve decided to include it in our second part, which deals with TV on DVD releases. There are still a number of big first-run releases this year that are definitely worthy gifts. We are going to start with the biggest domestic hit of the year...
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The Home Market Release Report is a day late this week for a trio of reasons. Firstly, the November Preview was also due the same day. Secondly, it was a very busy week. And finally, I’m suffering from a medical condition a lot of Canadians suffer from this time of year... acute Coffee Crisp poisoning. I’m not saying I ate four dozen fun-sized Coffee Crisps in the past three days... I’m not saying that, because it was actually an even 50. Don’t judge me. ... Okay, judge me. Clearly mistakes were made. It is a busy week, but not very deep week. Star Trek Beyond is by far the biggest and best release of the week and the various home market releases are the pick of the week. There wasn’t a lot of competition for that title, but Bad Moms is also worth picking up.
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The theme for this week on the home market is “good, but not great”. There are a lot of releases, but almost none of them rise above merely good. This meant there were very few contenders for Pick of the Week and the only real choice was The Wailing. It earned perfect reviews, so even though the Blu-ray isn’t loaded with extras, it is still the best release of the week.
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As anticipated, The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist led the weekend box office with ease pulling in $40.41 million. The second place film, Warcraft, earned 40% less. Now You See Me 2 only managed third place and it will need a lot of help to break even. The overall box office was $152 million, which is 13% more than last weekend. However, it was also more than $100 million less than this weekend last year. Normally a 44% collapse like this only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays. In this case, it's because of Jurassic World. 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by a substantial margin at $4.76 billion to $4.54 billion. 2016's lead is now 4.8%, more than a full percentage point lower than it was this time last week, but hopefully Finding Dory will help prevent a similar descent this week.
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X-Men: Apocalypse returned to top spot on the international chart with $84.4 million in 66 markets for totals of $286.0 million internationally and $403.0 million worldwide. Most of the film's weekend haul came from China, where it earned first place with $59.33 million. This is the best opening in the franchise in that market. The film has yet to open in Japan, but will likely fall out of the top ten before it gets there.
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Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows will top the box office chart this weekend with a respectable $35.25 million, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. The weekend as a whole is looking fairly ordinary though, thanks in large part to the muted debuts of X-Men: Apocalypse and Alice Through the Looking Glass last weekend, and their predictably-steep post-Memorial-Day declines. Apocalypse is off 66% this weekend to $22.325 million and $116.5 million in total. Alice will eke out $10.7 million or so for a two-week total of $50.8 million. Overall, the market will be down about 1% from the same weekend last year, and 20% below the comparable weekend from 2014.
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Last Memorial Day was bad with Tomorrowland leading the way with $33.03 million / $42.68 million. This year things were a bit better, with X-Men: Apocalypse earning $65.77 million / $79.81 million. Again, this is okay, but not outstanding. It's record-breaking compared to Alice Through the Looking Glass, which took in $26.86 million / $33.51 million. It's Disney's first bomb of the year. Don't feel bad for them, as they also set the record for fastest to $4 Billion Worldwide over the weekend. Overall, the box office was at $164 million, which was 20% better than last weekend and 18% better than last year. Including Monday, the box office pulled in $205 million, which was 6.3% more than last Memorial day. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $4.39 billion, which is 5.4% or $220 million more than last year's figure of $4.16 billion. (This does include Monday of last year, because of the misalignment of holiday. This is the last misaligned holiday till Labor Day.)
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The X-Men franchise has an impressive track record of Memorial Day openings, starting with X-Men: The Last Stand, which became the first film to gross $100 million over the 3-day part of the long weekend back in 2006. Days of Future Past grossed $90 million this weekend two years ago. In that context, a 3-day opening of $65 million for X-Men: Apocalypse is very much on the low end of expectations, although not too far behind the $72 million we were expecting earlier in the week. It’s a start that points towards a total domestic box office between $130 million and $150 million, even with the extra boost of another $15 million or so expected on Monday. That leaves the international markets with a lot to do, and the news overseas hasn’t been that great, with about $115 million in the bank after most markets opened last weekend.
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It's Memorial Day long weekend and there are two wide releases trying to take advantage of the holidays. X-Men: Apocalypse is the latest installment in the X-Men franchise, but it is earning among the worst reviews. Alice Through the Looking Glass is the sequel to Alice in Wonderland, which was a surprise $1 billion hit back in 2010. Neither film is expected to live up to its predecessor, but both are expected to be hits. This weekend last year, San Andreas opened with $54.59 million over three days. Apocalypse will top that over three days, while it might take Alice four days to get there.
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April started on a soft note and ended weak, but thanks to The Jungle Book, overall the month was actually really good. That's what happens when you get a surprise $300 million hit. This bodes well for May, which is both a slow month and a fantastic month. There are only four weekends and only eight movies coming out, but of those eight films, five have a shot at $100 million. The potential blockbusters are led by Captain America: Civil War, which is not only going to be the biggest hit of the month, but according to a Fandango survey, it is the most anticipated film of the summer. (On a side note, Finding Dory is the most anticipated family film of the summer and Ghostbusters is the most anticipated comedy of the summer. I was surprised by the last result.) Both Alice Through the Looking Glass and X-Men: Apocalypse have real shots at $200 million. One of them could get to $300 million, if they weren't opening against each other. Overall, the month looks excellent. Even better, last May there was only one monster hit, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and most analysts think Captain America: Civil War will beat it at the box office. (There's also the issue of the misalignment in the weekends, which hurt April, but will really help May.)
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Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation expanded over the weekend and saw its weekend haul grow, but by a tiny amount. It pulled in $65.5 million in 59 markets over the weekend for totals of $156.7 million internationally and $264.5 million worldwide. The film earned first place in a trio of major markets, led by Russia where it made $4.07 million on 1,125 screens. It also debuted in Germany ($2.84 million on 612) and Spain ($1.73 million on 603). On the other hand, it had to settle for second place in Japan with $4.60 million on 600 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.07 million. Jurassic World earned first place in Japan, so that's hardly a poor opening. Its biggest market overall was South Korea, where it made $6.57 million on 818 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $31.99 million. The film is below average for the franchise so far, but that's still enough to break even and justify yet another installment.
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Despite what conventional wisdom was predicting, Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation remained in first place, as Fantastic Four missed even our low expectations. The Gift also did well, but the other two wide releases opened on the low end of expectations. Overall, the box office fell 8.3% from last weekend down to $132 million, so according to that number, it is safe to say summer is fading fast. Worse still, compared to last year, the box office was 29% lower, which is terrible and a clear sign that summer is already over. Granted, 2015 still has a solid lead over 2014, at $6.88 billion to $6.51 billion. A lead of 5.7% at this time of year is great and it would take an epic collapse for that to disappear anytime soon. I don't think 2015 will bounce back and start padding its lead any time soon, but I also don't think it will have 29% deficits week after week either.
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It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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X-Men: Days of Future Past came out last year and earned plenty of praise from critics. It also became the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise. Now it is being re-released on DVD or Blu-ray as something called The Rogue Cut. How is it different from the theatrical release? And is it worth the double-dip?
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This Thursday is Thanksgiving, which means this is Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. In some ways, this is better than last year, as there were a wider number of big releases that would make great gifts. However, in other ways it is much weaker. I can't think of a single big franchise box set that came out this year. There are some smaller ones, like the HalloweenBox Set, but while the franchise has lasted ten installments and 30 years, how many can you really say are worth repeated viewing? Fortunately, there were plenty of great films to come out this year, starting with what is currently the biggest hit of the year.
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Maleficent rose to first place with $47.9 million in 54 markets for totals of $340.8 million internationally and $526.7 million worldwide. It became the first live-action film in Angelina Jolie's career to reach the $500 million mark. The film opened in first place in China with $22.01 million. Up next for the film is Japan and if it does well there, it could top Kung Fu Panda 2 as Angelina Jolie's biggest hit.
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There were three films that were in a virtual tie for top spot on the international top ten. Godzilla squeaked out a win with $38.4 million in 62 markets for totals of $248.7 million internationally and $440.2 million worldwide after a month of release. This includes a $37.00 million opening weekend in China. Needless to say, it earned first place in that market. The film finishes its international run in Japan at the end of July and it should jump over $500 million worldwide when it does.
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X-Men: Days of Future Past easily won the weekend race at the box office earning more than $100 million over the four-day weekend. That's great news and it helped the overall box office grow by 5% to $187 million over the three-day weekend from last week. That's the good news. The bad news the other new release, Blended, bombed and the three-day weekend was down 27% from the same weekend last year. In fact, this year's four-day weekend total of $231 million was 9% lower than last year's three-day total and 26% lower than the four-day weekend from last year. That's a devastating collapse. The only saving grace is last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend, so a sharp drop-off isn't that unexpected. So far, 2014 has pulled in $3.95 billion, which is 4% more than 2013's running tally of $3.80 billion.
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Another weekend, another $90 million opener. This time, there’s an asterisk at least, because X-Men: Days of Future Past will “open” with $110 million, thanks to the four day Memorial Day long weekend, giving Fox an arguable claim to the biggest weekend of the year, and the first $100 million debut. The reality, however, is that it will line up in fourth place when comparing 3-day weekends, with Captain America still out in front, thanks to its $95 million opening back in April. May has seen the three other $90 million-plus weekends, with Godzilla second ($93 million) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 third ($91.6 million).
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It is Memorial Day long weekend and the box office is looking strong. X-Men: Days of Future Past should dominate the box office chart and there are some who think it will have the best opening of the year so far. Blended is playing the role of counter-programing this week and should do well in that role opening in third place. Meanwhile, the rest of the top five will be filled with Godzilla, Neighbors, and The Amazing Spider-Man 2, all of which should still pull in $10 million or more. By comparison, this weekend last year, there were six films that earned more than $10 million over the four-day weekend, led by Fast and Furious 6, which earned a four-day opening of $117.04 million There are some who think X-Men: Days of Future Past will top that figure. I really hope so. However, even if it does, last year was a record-breaking Memorial Day long weekend and I don't think 2014 will match it.
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It has been a great year so far and April was again a strong month. The box office was led by Captain America: The Winter Soldier, as it became the second film of the year to reach $200 million, while Rio 2 is on pace to become the seventh $100 million hit of the year. Big picture, 2014 has already hit $3 billion, which isn't a record for this time of the year, but it is $250 million ahead of 2013. That streak ends in May. Don't get me wrong. There are six films opening this month that at least have a shot at $100 million and two of those should earn more than $200 million and there are two others that at least have a shot at that milestone. Leading the way is The Amazing Spider-Man 2, which is looking to top The Winter Soldier and become the second biggest hit of the year so far. Its main competition this month is X-men: Days of Future Past, while Godzilla also has a shot at $200 million. Unfortunately, this month last year, Iron Man 3 earned more than $400 million, while two other films took in $200 million and seven films in total reached the century mark. That is going to be really hard to replicate this year and 2014 will likely lose some of its lead over 2013. Fortunately, 2014 has such a big lead that unless the box office really slumps, it will end the month with at least a small lead over 2013.
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PANIC! If you haven't finished your Christmas shopping yet, it is officially time to panic. Personally, I got the last of my shopping done on Wednesday, although I don't think the gift will arrive in time for Christmas. For those still looking for a last minute gift, Part IV of our Holiday Gift Guide focuses on books, CDs, and of course anything else I missed the first time around, beginning with...
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Elysium rushed to top spot with $24.04 million on 4,588 screens in 41 markets for an early total of $40.08 million. This week it opened in France with $4.16 million on 466 screens, which was enough for first place. It also debuted in first place in Australia ($3.38 million on 317 screens); and in Germany ($3.20 million on 584); and Spain ($3.04 million on 450). It was pushed into third place in Russia with $2.98 million on 976 screens for a total of $12.50 million after two weeks of release. It fell 58%, which is actually better than average for a sophomore film in Russia.
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The Smurfs 2 rose to top spot with $35.57 million on 11,102 screens in 65 markets for a total of $111.01 million internationally. Its biggest market of the weekend was Germany, where it added $3.16 million on 1,075 screens over the weekend to its total, which now sits at $8.78 million. There is a virtual tie for biggest market overall with Russia and the U.K. sitting at $9.94 million and $9.87 million respectively. Getting to the century mark internationally so quickly is good news for the studio. That said, it is behind the first film in most markets and I don't think it will finish with a profit, at least not on its own. Perhaps merchandizing will push it into the black.
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August begins with two films, 2 Guns and The Smurfs 2, one action film and one kids movie. Neither film is likely going to break records, but I think 2 Guns should at least do well enough to be a financial success, eventually. The Smurfs 2 probably won't be a hit here, but its international numbers are looking a lot better. Like this year, this weekend last year there were two wide releases, Total Recall and Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days, one action film and one kids movie. This year's new releases should easily trump last year's new releases; however, last year the box office was led by The Dark Knight Rises, which will keep the year-over-year comparison a little closer.
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The Wolverine did not live up to expectations, but it still dominated the weekend box office chart, earning more than double the second place film, The Conjuring. Overall, the box office fell nearly 12% when compared to last weekend hitting $172 million. This is still 28% higher than the same weekend last year, which is a great result. In total, 2013 has pulled in $6.40 billion, which is just under $20 million or 0.3% below last year's pace. This is fantastic; however, had The Wolverine performed as well as some were expecting, 2013 would have pulled into the lead over the weekend.
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Note: This list contains actors who appeared in at least two movies in the franchise.