Inductivist

Anyone who pays any attention to trends in intelligence knows that the average American IQ is falling. We're down to perhaps 97, and if current immigration trends continue, we'll probably be in the mid-90s by mid-century.

What does a country look like when it has around a 95 mean IQ?  Looking at a world table, I see the following: Argentina (93), Bosnia (94), Bulgaria (93), Greece (92), Israel (95), Hungary (97), Italy (97), Kazakhstan (95), Malaysia (92), Poland (95), Portugal (95), Russia (97), Slovakia (96), Slovenia (96), Ukraine (95), and Uruguay (96).

Take your pick: it doesn't look good for the US. And we're becoming much more ethnically diverse than many of these countries. Ethnic diversity generates identity politics and ethnic spoils systems, which will only add to the dysfunction.

China with its 105 IQ is smiling.

All my emprises have been fill’d with Thee,
My speculations, plans, begun and carried on in thoughts of Thee,
Sailing the deep, or journeying the land for Thee;
Intentions, purports, aspirations mine—leaving results to Thee.
O I am sure they really come from Thee!
The urge, the ardor, the unconquerable will,
The potent, felt, interior command, stronger than words,
A message from the Heavens, whispering to me even in sleep,
These sped me on.
By me, and these, the work so far accomplish’d (for what has been, has been;)
By me Earth’s elder, cloy’d and stifled lands, uncloy’d, unloos’d;
By me the hemispheres rounded and tied—the unknown to the known.
The end I know not—it is all in Thee;
Or small, or great, I know not—haply, what broad fields, what lands;
Haply, the brutish, measureless human undergrowth I know,
Transplanted there, may rise to stature, knowledge worthy Thee;
Haply the swords I know may there indeed be turn’d to reaping-tools;
Haply the lifeless cross I know—Europe’s dead cross—may bud and blossom there.

                                                       --from "Prayer of Columbus,"  Walt Whitman, 1871
                                                     

Watching Roseanne's interview on Hannity got me thinking about how elite Americans think about blacks. When they think of Valerie Jarrett, they don't think of one person with a particular biography. They think of this enormous black organism that lives now and suffered the wounds of slavery and Jim Crow in the past. Blacks born in, say, 1980, are regarded with reverence, as if they are Holocaust survivors, as if they were whipped many times by their owner.

Ordinary Americans like myself look at someone like Jarrett and simply see a person. A person who has had a good life and should be regarded as anyone else. She doesn't live in a system where she is a second-class citizen. She's not some grand symbol of America's sins, she's just Valerie. She should be judged just like anyone else.

MIDUS Study participants were asked the following: "How closely do you identify with being an American, in the sense of being a U.S. citizen?" Answers ranged from "not at all closely" (1) to "very closely" (4). I calculated the means for each ethnic group with at least 30 respondents:
 
Mean American identity score (N = 4,561)
 
Lebanese 3.86 (n = 14)
Polish 3.86
Amerindian 3.86
Norwegian 3.86
Mexican 3.85
Czech 3.81
Irish 3.81
Swedish 3.80
French 3.79

All Americans 3.79

German 3.79
England 3.78
Italian 3.78
Russian 3.77
Scottish 3.77
Black 3.75

All groups score very high, with no significant differences among them. I included Lebanese Americans even though there were only 14 respondents. Most individuals from all ethnic groups closely identify with being American. This is true even of groups with many immigrants and connections to the Old Country (e.g., Mexican Americans) and for groups that were mistreated historically (i.e., Amerindians and blacks). Surprisingly, somehow, America still seems to do a good job of winning over its people. God bless her.

From the Journal of Islamic Law and Culture: 

In this essay the author gives an historical overview of Islam in America from its earliest beginnings in pre-Columbia America until the present. Details on the origins, growth and spread of the three largest American Muslim groups - African American, Arab and South Asian - are explored as are the tensions and frictions between the three communities, which undermine the unity of these adherents and their potential influence on the United States' domestic and foreign policies. Also explored are the ideological struggles some Muslims - perhaps a large percentage in the three groups - have regarding their position in the American mosaic. Are they “Muslims in America” or are they “American Muslims?” Some African Americans, many of whom have adopted Islam and the “new” identity it provides as an antidote to this group's long history of ostracism and marginalization, are alienated from any wholesale embrace of their American heritage and identity. Among Arab and South Asian Muslims, some feel a loyalty to their homelands and are often opposed to U. S. policies related to them. Others see the U.S. as morally bankrupt and beyond redemption and are therefore unwilling to totally embrace an American identity. Post 9-11 events in the U.S. in which Muslims with immigrant backgrounds have been targeted have further alienated those who already had their doubts and pushed others who were on the fence into the camp of those who see no real place for Muslims in the American body politic. Lastly, the author lays out her views on how all three Muslim communities can find ways to unite internally and why it is to their advantage to fully embrace their American identity and citizenship in order to influence her future policies, both domestic and international.

So Muslims as a group are alienated from America's heritage; they think she is morally bankrupt and beyond redemption; they are more worried about the Old Country's welfare than American interests; and so they do not fully identify as Americans. But the author thinks they should, not out of affection, but as a means to make America more pro-Islam. I, for one, am reassured by this essay. 

Growing introversion: Here are America's mean introversion scores over four decades:


Mean introversion score

Seventies 13.8
Eighties 14.0
Nineties 14.1
This decade 14.2*

* p < .05, two-tail test, compared with the seventies


The country has gradually gotten a bit more introverted. This might be due to increasing numbers of Asians and Hispanics. (Immigrants in general tend to be more introverted).

To all the Oreos: This post is for all the non-white Americans who are criticized for being dark on the outside and white on the inside. Maybe you don't speak Spanish, or you think that calling women bitches and ho's is stupid? Maybe you enjoy school and are proud of your good grades? Perhaps you're ambitious, but your neighbors accuse you of thinking you're better than them?

You feel like you have no identity? All these other guys call each other bro, but you don't feel part of that? Well, you do have an identity, but you just don't know it. It's called an American. It may not be a perfect badge to wear, but you could do worse. Trust me.

What might surprise you is that you and I are in the same boat. Like you, I have no people but America. And yes, if you think about it, that makes you and me brothers. That's got to be a painful thought--you and Ron playing on the same team. We Americans may be different. We may disagree about a lot of things. You might get mad, and God knows I do, but we're brothers, and we're in this thing together.

4th of July stuff: Rasmussen asked some interesting Independence Day-related questions:

As America prepares to celebrate its 233rd birthday this weekend, 82% of American adults say that if given the choice of living anywhere in the world, they would still choose to live in the United States.

I've got my criticisms of the country, and certainly there are parts of America where I wouldn't want to live, but there is no place I'd rather be. Yet.

Most Americans (54%) also believe the United States is a nation of liberty and justice for all, as the Pledge of Allegiance states, up three points from last year. Forty percent (40%) do not believe this is true.

Slightly more men than women believe America is a nation of liberty and justice for all. About the same percentage of African-Americans (55%) and whites (54%) agree on the question.

Now that is just plain cool. Blacks might express criticism on specific issues, but give them a generalization like "land of liberty and justice" which gets at one's gut feeling and they're just as positive as whites. Awesome. (Maybe there is some optimism in there because of Obama, too). I wish they had data on Hispanics. I imagine their numbers would be high too.

Fifty percent (50%) of Americans believe hate is growing in America following the murders of a doctor who performed late-term abortions, a military recruiter and a guard at the U.S. Holocaust Museum. Thirty-five percent (35%) disagree.

Hold on. With each passing year, the country becomes more diverse, so hate should be on the decline and love on the rise. Differences bring us together, people. I'll like you best if you're nothing like me.

This is a good moment to push patriotism. With all the differentiating going on, we need some commonality to draw us together. We're all Americans, and that should mean something. Jamie Foxx claimed that a certain talented singer who recently died was one of theirs, but the truth is, for good or bad, he was one of ours.

Only 31% now believe the United States will be the most powerful nation in the world by the end of the 21st century.

We will certainly end up in the dustbin of history if we continue to delude ourselves with blank slatism. Science, not wishful thinking, is the answer, man.

Declining American exceptionalism? Using the World Values Survey (WVS), I calculated mean scores for the United States on the following questions given several times over the past two decades:


How much freedom of choice and control

1982 7.4
1990 7.6
1995 7.6
1999 8.0
2006 7.6


We need larger income differences as incentives

1990 6.8
1995 5.5
1999 5.7
2006 6.1


Competition is good

1990 6.8
1995 6.8
1999 6.6
2006 6.4

A sense of freedom has perhaps gone up a bit since the early 80s. Feelings about income differences match conservative-liberal swings. In the era of Oprah and Obama, an appreciation of competition may be slipping. This is the one sign of declining Americanism.

American exceptionalism, Part III: Continuing our examination of American values, we are putatively a competitive people. The World Values Survey (WVS) asked people from many countries which statement they agree with. The first is: "Competition is good. It stimulates people to work hard and develop new ideas." The second is: "Competition is harmful. It brings the worst in people." They were scored a 1 if they completely agreed with the former and a 10 if they agreed 100% with the latter. If their feelings were mixed, they could give a number somewhere between the two extremes. I reversed the means by subtracting them from 10 so that high numbers reflect an approval of competition.


Mean score for belief in competition

Jordan 7.5
Ghana 7.3
Egypt 7.3
India 7.2
Iran 7.0
Romania 6.9
Mexico 6.8
Georgia 6.7
New Zealand 6.7
Sweden 6.6
Peru 6.6
Indonesia 6.6
Trinidad 6.6
Burkina Faso 6.6
USA 6.5
Bulgaria 6.5
China 6.5
Switzerland 6.4
Colombia 6.3
Mali 6.3
Canada 6.2
Australia 6.2
Slovenia 6.2
Taiwan 6.2
Vietnam 6.2
Hong Kong 6.2

World mean 6.2

South Africa 6.1
Ethiopia 6.1
Germany 6.1
Finland 6.0
South Korea 6.0
Morocco 6.0
Rwanda 6.0
Zambia 5.9
Russia 5.9
Great Britain 5.8
Brazil 5.8
Spain 5.8
Moldova 5.8
Cyprus 5.8
Turkey 5.8
Malaysia 5.8
Japan 5.7
Italy 5.6
Serbia 5.6
Andorra 5.6
Ukraine 5.4
Netherlands 5.3
Argentina 5.3
Thailand 5.2
Poland 5.1
Chile 5.1
France 5.0


Once again, America is well above average, but there are 14 countries that give competition a higher rating, and two of them are developed countries--Sweden and New Zealand. If we also consider the other two values we've looked at--a sense of autonomy and lack of class envy--Sweden and New Zealand score higher than the U.S. in two out of three cases. And if we use the criterion of scoring higher than America on two out of three attitudes, we would add the following countries to the list: Ghana, Indonesia, Trinidad, Georgia, Burkina Faso, Egypt, Jordan, and the most interesting to me--Mexico.

There might not be much of a correlation between values and system characteristics, but the results are interesting, nevertheless.

Next, I want to see if America has lost some of its "Americanism" since the WVS was first given in 1990.

American exceptionalism, Part II: A second characteristic of American society that makes it unique, according to a recent speech given by Charles Murray, is a lack of class envy. Supposedly, this trait of ours drives the class-conscious Europeans mad. The World Values Survey asked respondents if incomes should be made more equal (1) or if incomes differences need to be larger to create incentive (10) or to choose a number in between the extremes.


Mean scores

Ghana 7.8
Mali 7.5
Indonesia 7.4
Trinidad 7.2
Thailand 7.1
Burkina Faso 7.1
Georgia 6.9
Ukraine 6.9
Poland 6.8
Egypt 6.8
Jordan 6.8
Taiwan 6.7
Malaysia 6.7
Ethiopia 6.6
South Korea 6.5
Russia 6.4
Zambia 6.2
USA 6.1
Japan 6.1
Mexico 6.1
Sweden 6.1
Serbia 6.1
Andorra 6.1
Vietnam 6.0
Rwanda 6.0
Italy 5.9

World mean 5.9

Canada 5.8
China 5.8
Moldova 5.8
Australia 5.7
Netherlands 5.7
Spain 5.7
Brazil 5.7
Bulgaria 5.7
South Africa 5.5
Colombia 5.5
Great Britain 5.4
New Zealand 5.4
Argentina 5.3
Morocco 5.3
Cyprus 5.2
France 5.1
Finland 5.0
Turkey 5.0
India 4.8
Hong Kong 4.8
Chile 4.7
Slovenia 4.7
Romania 4.7
Germany 4.5
Iran 4.2
Switzerland 3.6


Notice how quite a few developing countries agree that income inequality is necessary, and it is particularly interesting how Russians believe this. It looks like Africa tends to agree, but developed Europe, the region Murray is comparing us with, does not. Mexico seems to accept large income differences, which is an indication that immigrants from that country might not have an intense desire for income redistribution here.

So, the picture is similar to the last post: the U.S. is different from Europe, but some developing countries seem to be more American now than America--at least in sentiment, if not reality.

American exceptionalism, Part I: In a recent AEI speech, Charles Murray described what makes America unique and how it might slip away unless elites fall in love again with what makes us different. Using the World Values Survey, I wanted to see if we really do stick out in certain areas. I want to cover the cultural characteristics one at a time, and my first choice is freedom and control over one's life. People were asked how much freedom of choice and control they have over their lives. Answers ranged from "none at all" (1) to "a great deal" (10). Here are the means for the countries where the question was asked:


Mean freedom of choice score

Mexico 8.4
Colombia 8.0
Trinidad 7.9
Argentina 7.9
New Zealand 7.9
Sweden 7.8
Andorra 7.7
Brazil 7.7
USA 7.6
Canada 7.6
South Africa 7.6
Australia 7.6
Switzerland 7.6
Romania 7.6
Jordan 7.6
Cyprus 7.5
Slovenia 7.5
Finland 7.5
Turkey 7.4
Indonesia 7.4
Great Britain 7.3
Taiwan 7.3
Malaysia 7.3
China 7.2
Chile 7.2
Zambia 7.2
Vietnam 7.1
Peru 7.1
Ghana 7.1
Iran 7.1

World mean 7.0

Russia 7.0
Moldova 6.9
Spain 6.9
Thailand 6.9
Germany 6.8
France 6.7
Netherlands 6.7
South Korea 6.7
Poland 6.6
Serbia 6.5
Rwanda 6.5
Georgia 6.4
Italy 6.3
Hong Kong 6.3
Ethiopia 6.2
Japan 6.1
Egypt 6.1
Mali 6.1
India 6.0
Ukraine 6.0
Bulgaria 5.8
Burkina Faso 5.7
Iraq 5.4
Morocco 5.3

Murray was comparing the U.S. with Europe, and it is the case that only Sweden and New Zealand have higher numbers. But there are several European countries with estimates as high or close to the American mean. English-language countries in general feel self-efficacious.

Look how citizens of Latin American countries feel like they have a lot of autonomy. Fred Reed, who lives in Mexico, has written that the country is significantly freer than the regulation-riddled United States.

These numbers indicate that America scores well on a sense of freedom, but is not exceptional.