Showing posts with label Danger. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Danger. Show all posts

Friday, July 19, 2024

Biden quitting the race? That could be very risky for all of us

 

The news and social media are full of rumors that President Biden may announce his withdrawal from the 2024 Presidential election.  That doesn't mean he'd leave office as well, of course:  that could happen, but there's no certainty that he'd be prepared to bow out early.  I suspect he'd be more likely to continue in office until his present term expires in January next year.

That could be a very big problem.  Biden has already demonstrated on repeated occasions that he can be vindictive, nasty and vengeful to those he thinks have slighted him.  Just how much damage could a lame-duck president do in the final half-year of his term in office?  I suspect the answer is "A heck of a lot!"

It may be that Congress and the Senate could prevent or mitigate the worst of the damage, by refusing to pass enabling legislation.  However, presidential executive orders can operate without such support.  Biden could install his supporters in critical positions in the Executive Branch;  reallocate budgets to support his preferred agenda, even at the expense of defunding other parts of government that are just as (or even more) essential;  increase his efforts to dilute the electorate by bringing in millions upon millions of foreign "migrants", and getting as many of them as possible to register as voters, even though that's illegal (just as his administration and Blue states are doing right now);  and so on.  Sure, some of those steps may be actionable in court - but it takes time to get such measures on a court docket, and there's no guarantee they could be blocked or suspended in time to avert the damage they might do.  So much depends on the perspective of possibly biased judges that it's hard to make that call.

It might be better for the country if he were to leave office at the same time that he withdraws from electoral contention;  but we have no idea how well Vice-President Kamala Harris would perform in his stead.  Based on her track record, I think she'd get even less respect and cooperation, nationally and internationally, than would President Biden - and that might make her vengeful, bitter and retaliatory in her governance.

A lesson one learns early on the African plains is that an animal is never so dangerous as when it's wounded and weakened.  It'll lash out and try to kill those threatening it, no matter who or what they are.  (I've never forgotten the dik-dik - a tiny antelope - that charged a game ranger near Rhodes Memorial on the slopes of Table Mountain in Cape Town.  He was trying to see whether any young were in her bush nest, but she was having none of it.  Her short, sharp horns penetrated his thigh and punctured his femoral artery.  He bled to death next to the nest before help - only a few minutes away - could reach him.  I was nearby that day.)

Biden and/or Harris might demonstrate similar pugnacity.  If they're politically weakened to the point that they believe they can't win, and/or have nothing to lose, they could retaliate against Democrats, or Republicans - even the entire nation.  That's a prospect not to be taken lightly, particularly given President Biden's ever-loosening grasp of reality, and Vice-President Harris' growing (and, IMHO, probably justifiable) outrage at the lack of respect, verging on contempt, shown towards her by her own party's leaders.

We might all live to regret something like that happening.

Peter


Thursday, July 18, 2024

Conspiracy theorists are at it again...

 

I've seen several claims that large quantities of shares in President Trump's social media network were "shorted" immediately prior to the assassination attempt against him on July 13.  The inference being drawn is that whoever did this must have had prior knowledge of the plot, and was poised to profit from its success.  Here's just one example of what I've been seeing.



However, few if any of those reporting the alleged short sales bothered to do their own research - they just rushed to repeat a rumor.

The Daily Dot reported more responsibly.


Investors in Trump Media ($DJT) believe that they can prove who had inside knowledge of the assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump.

But most of their claims are based on misreading a document filed last week with the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC).

. . .

But claims that the puts were placed specifically right before the assassination don’t hold water. The filing is a report for a calendar year or quarter ending on June 30, which is the latest the puts could have been placed.

It’s possible firms shorted DJT on July 12, but reports revealing that are not currently available.


There's more at the link.

This always happens after a major crisis event like Saturday's.  Conspiracy theorists rush out of the woodwork to spread their slimy suspicions all over anything and anyone they can imagine.  They don't wait for the initial "fog" to clear, they don't bother to look for authoritative sources (in fact, they frequently quote each other as being authoritative, when all they are doing is rumor-mongering), and they aren't interested in the truth.

Folks, please be very careful where you get your news.  Far too many "independent" sources aren't worth the electrons it takes to get them to your computer or telephone screen.  At a time when a rumor might spark genuine violence, even murder, against political opponents, their deliberate inaccuracy and refusal to fact-check is criminally negligent, IMHO.

Peter


Wednesday, July 17, 2024

How do you get rid of drug cartels if they're running a government agency?

 

That's the unspoken question posed by a cartel takeover of a Mexican port.


A sharp increase in drug seizures has been reported at Mexico’s west coast ports with caches discovered inside containers and vessels’ sea chests, said protection and indemnity club NorthStandard.

The alert follows the seizure earlier this month of 88 tonnes of chemicals needed for the manufacture of synthetic drugs at the country’s largest container port, Manzanillo.

Ports are a “critical part” of the criminal infrastructure of one of the most powerful cartels, the Sinaloa, which uses them to receive precursor chemicals and South American cocaine for trafficking into the US, according to a May report by the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA).

. . .

The DEA report said that the Pacific coast port of Mazatlan was wholly controlled by the Sinaloa cartel and they charged other drug trafficking organisations to use the port.

A long history of alliances with drug trafficking groups also gave the Sinaloa access to the port of Manzanillo, said the report.

The port is “strategically significant because of its location on the central Pacific Coast and its high volume of shipping traffic due to widespread use of the port by foreign countries to exchange legitimate trade goods with Mexico and to refuel”, said the agency in its 2024 national drug threat assessment.


There's more at the link.

It's all very well to go after criminals . . . but what if the administrators and bureaucrats controlling government functions (such as a port) are themselves criminals?  Remove them, and you'll have to appoint replacements - who will doubtless be threatened immediately with death or dismemberment, for themselves and/or their families, if they don't do precisely the same as their predecessors did.  "Plata o plomo", remember?

Also, how can any honest law enforcement agent or agency work with a port administration that's so clearly criminal?  Everything the latter learns about the "good guys" will undoubtedly be passed to the "bad guys", who will use the information to target law enforcement and operate with impunity.

Most worrying of all to me, we've just "imported" what are likely to be hundreds of thousands of cartel operatives and other criminals from South America, thanks to President Biden's border policies.  They're now inside our borders, and I'm sure some are already working in our harbors, airports, etc.  How long until they take over one of our transport hubs, and operate it for the benefit of their cartel buddies back home?

Peter


Tuesday, July 16, 2024

Training combat drone pilots the hard way

 

There's a very interesting article over at The War Zone on how Ukraine is training its FPV (first person view) drone pilots to take on the enemy, and win.  Here's an excerpt.


It’s one thing to have drones. It is something else altogether to reliably guide them to dynamic targets across a chaotic and bloody battlefield. While the many videos of attacks on tanks, trucks, and troops like the one below make it look easy, it’s not.

“We have a constant need to train our pilots and operators. The world of unmanned systems is constantly changing and the enemy comes up with certain methods or can prevent us from completing our tasks,” said one of the soldiers, who goes by callsign Teenager. “We have the opportunity to constantly train and improve our skills.”

As he speaks, the video cuts to an FPV drone flying through a net-covered tube obstacle. It’s one of the many hurdles new pilots have to navigate as they become familiar with flying and experienced pilots have to use to refresh their skills.

For rookies, just getting to that stage takes time.

“Our training is done in several stages,” said another soldier, callsign Glory. “It starts with a base of basic summer practices, then the second stage is more complex practices, and then there are application tactics, where our pilots learn to counter the enemy, an imitation of what is on the battlefield.”

The obstacle course offers many challenges, from mockups of building facades to slaloming around metal poles to buzzing through hoops. There are also static targets, like an old automobile ... This training teaches pilots to make kills that look right out of a dystopian movie, including strikes through open windows, doors and tank hatches.


There's more at the link, including photographs and links to some spectacular combat footage.

The trainees are also taught to use a 3D printer in the field, so that they can produce their own spare parts to repair their drones when needed.  I hope the US is watching developments like this closely;  our forces deploy tens of thousands of drones of different sizes, and their operators need to be as up-to-date as possible on actual battlefield tactics, defenses, and so on.

As I've said before:  I'm very glad my military service ended several decades ago.  I'd hate to be on a modern battlefield, where the slightest exposure might mean one or more drones hunting me down and blowing me up.  I'd feel pretty darn helpless out there!

Peter


Monday, July 15, 2024

Yikes! - aviation edition

 

A very worrying report indicates that airliners may be vulnerable to a clash of technologies that might "mask" dangerously low altitudes.


French investigation authority BEA believes the prevalence of ILS approaches has obscured an underlying vulnerability of aircraft to the risk of terrain collision arising from incorrect altimeter pressure settings.

BEA made the remarks following its inquiry into a serious incident in which an Airbus A320 descended to just 6ft above ground during a low-visibility approach to Paris Charles de Gaulle’s runway 27R.

The ILS was not operational on the day of the incident, 23 May 2022, and the Airhub aircraft (9H-EMU) was conducting a satellite-based approach with barometric vertical guidance.

But BEA found the pilots had set the altimeter reference to 1011mb instead of 1001mb, after being given an incorrect QNH pressure reading by an air traffic controller. This resulted in the jet’s flying a descent path which was 280ft below the required profile.

Although this triggered a minimum safe altitude warning in the control tower, the controller took 9s to inform the crew – by which time the jet was 122ft above ground – and then used incorrect phraseology. The crew did not hear this call, and continued to descend.

BEA says the approach lights had not been switched on, and heavy rain meant the windshield wipers were operating at maximum speed.

After passing what they believed to be the decision height – but with the jet actually much lower, just 52ft above ground – the pilots initiated a go-around, because they had no visual contact with the runway.

The aircraft descended to 6ft, while 0.9nm from the threshold, before climbing away.


There's more at the link.

That's frightening as hell to anyone who flies frequently.  Basically, the aircrew entered an incorrect value, but did not double-check it;  and then they relied on the aircraft's technology, now mislead by their entry, to keep them safe.  It's only by the grace of God and a couple of seconds' leeway that they didn't fly their airliner straight into the ground, killing everyone aboard.

We're seeing this more and more;  aircrew relying on technology to fly the plane rather than doing so themselves.  Automation has become so advanced (?) and so complex that it's easier to simply set a computer to do what you want, then sit back and let the computer figure out how to do it.  If incorrect values have been entered, and the computer uses them in its calculations, you have no way of knowing that the danger exists.

As another example of relying on technology rather than pilot skill and concentration, consider the crash of Asiana Airlines Flight 214 in 2013.


The Asiana pilots said in interviews with the National Transportation Safety Board that they had set the auto-throttles to maintain an air speed of 137 knots. That’s a significantly faster speed than the plane actually achieved as it came in for its landing at San Francisco International Airport on Saturday.

. . .

The pilots’ statements do not resolve the central question of why the Boeing 777’s speed and altitude fell so far out of the normal range for landing at SFO before it hit a sea wall and crash-landed. But outside air safety experts said the statements suggest a risky reliance on technology when the flight crew should have been constantly monitoring the airplane’s speed.

“Whether it was engaged or not working is almost irrelevant,” said Barry Schiff, a former TWA pilot and an air safety consultant. “The big mystery of Flight 214 is why in God’s name did these two pilots sit there and allow the air speed to get so low.”

Experts said the pilots should have been monitoring the plane’s speed every few seconds, and could have manually taken control of the engines at any time.


Again, more at the link.

The first report gives me the shivers.  Six feet off the ground???  Oy gevalt . . .

Peter


Sunday, July 14, 2024

The assassination attempt on President Trump

 

I've said nothing yet in these pages about yesterday's attempted assassination of former President Trump.  I won't have anything substantial to say until more information is available - and that may be some time in being made available.  I certainly don't trust the FBI to conduct a reliable, impartial, non-partisan investigation.  As Rep. Thomas Massie tweeted this morning:



Quite so.  I said some years ago that "The FBI can no longer be trusted in any way, shape or form".  I've seen nothing since then to make me change that opinion - rather the opposite, in fact.

And what about the abysmally poor security coverage of President Trump?  How, precisely, could a man with a clearly visible and identifiable rifle climb onto a rooftop only a few hundred feet from him, take aim, and fire several shots before being neutralized?  How did he penetrate the secure perimeter that should have been in place for several hundred yards around the venue?  Failure of security, much?

In years past, before being elected President, Trump hired a very efficient and effective Israeli security company to handle that sort of thing.  Perhaps he should do so again, to remind the Secret Service how it's done.  They appear to have forgotten.

Then there's this allegation.  It may be a complete fabrication - we don't know yet, and I've seen nothing to confirm it - but I'd love to know whether the shooter was observed by President Trump's security detail before he pulled the trigger, and if so, why none of them stopped him before he could do so.  Was permission to shoot denied?  If so, by whom?  And why?  And who told the leader(s) of his security team what to do under such circumstances?



As for all the calls for restraint from so-called "moderates" and the progressive/liberal/left-wing half of US politics . . . no.  Simply "No."  When the only candidate who offers anything to "constitutional Americans" - those who support our traditional values, who reject the political, social, economic and cultural "norms" of the Obama and Biden administrations - is targeted, so are all of us who want the same things.  I personally don't like the thought of a sometimes vulgar, sometimes obsessive, loudly outspoken President Trump in charge of the country again:  but if (as it currently appears) he's the only candidate who's prepared to dismantle the administrative "deep state" and restore our country to something at least approximating "government of the people, by the people and for the people", he'll have my vote every day and twice on Sundays.  I have nothing left about which to be moderate, because every time our side tries moderation, the other side grabs more power and refuses to relinquish it.  If it takes a morning star to beat some sense into their heads, I'll buy one, gift-wrap it and personally hand it to President Trump, along with a bouquet of roses and a smile.  The time for moderation just went out the window.

Several bloggers have been expecting an attempt on President Trump's life, and I've foreseen the possibility in several previous posts in these pages.  Yesterday, all of us were proven correct.  The only question now remaining is whether this was merely one facet of a much wider, deeper and more sinister plot.  Was it a "lone wolf" acting on his own?  Or was it the harbinger of many more such attempts, each fostered and encouraged by a progressive left wing of US politics (and its "deep state" allies) that will do literally anything to stop President Trump from being elected to a second term in office?  And will the FBI and Secret Service, both very much a part of the "deep state" and therefore tainted by association, offer more effective (and trustworthy) protection to him?  I'm not holding my breath in anticipation of that . . .

Finally, the assassination attempt has "rattled the cages" of vast numbers of Americans who thought it couldn't happen here.  Clearly, it could - and it has.  The result?  As SGAmmo, my favorite ammunition supplier, pointed out in its latest advertising flyer, published today:


It is safe to say the next rush to buy ammo is here. As I have talked about in past emails, the lion's share of the volume in the ammunition business is based on hoarding and panic buying, not consumption, and demand is such cases is a fear-driven. Yesterday, due to the tragic events, we saw order volume increase by about 2000%, 20 times recent normal from around 6pm CST to 11pm when I stopped monitoring the flow for the night. Order volume then sustain massive elevation through the night and into this morning ... Yesterday, we saw several  of our so-called 'competitors' raise prices almost instantly, especially on 5.56/223, and as of so far we have not increased any prices, however please consider this notice that there may be upward movement in the days ahead unless demand settles quickly.


Clearly, many US citizens understand that in uncertain times, you'd better have ammunition with which to respond to any threat requiring it.  As the old saying goes, "it's better to have it and not need it, than need it and not have it".

I've got mine.  I hope you've got yours.  Keep it handy.

Peter


Tuesday, July 9, 2024

"Don't buy a house built in 2024"

 

That's the message from a construction worker in a video that I came across on Twitter/X.  It's less than two minutes long, and worth watching.  PROFANITY ALERT:  The speaker isn't afraid to drop F-bombs all over the place, but that doesn't make his message any less worthwhile.

Basically, the construction worker shows us the shoddy materials and workmanship that can be found in almost all modern construction, due largely (he says) to the fact that better materials often aren't available.  As he points out, once everything's assembled and hidden behind siding, we'll never know how poor the quality is - until something goes wrong, or something fails, and we have to pay for repairs.

If he's right, the entire construction industry right now appears to be a giant rip-off.  I don't see how it can be that bad everywhere, because it would surely have become a national scandal by now;  but I'm prepared to believe that it's that bad in certain areas, or involving certain products.  That being the case, forewarned is fore-armed.

Go watch the video, and learn.

Peter


Yet another reason to leave big cities

 

Welcome to the urban world of the 2020's, in at least some American cities.  An NBC affiliate reports:


Delivery drivers in the South Bay say they're increasingly worried about becoming robbery targets.

It's happening enough that at least one company, Core Mart, is now hiring armed guards to escort its drivers.

Darrell Cortez, a retired San Jose police officer who now works in corporate and retail security, said, "Unfortunately, this is what society has become now with armed guards guarding merchandise from the retailer because there seems to be a sense of lawlessness in our society."


There's more at the link.

And we're supposed to go into those stores in those cities and spend our hard-earned money there, despite the risks posed by thieves outside and inside, aggressive panhandlers, drug addicts looking for a quick score, homeless folks with unpredictable and frequently unsafe behavior living on the streets, and who knows what else?

It makes the old Budweiser tail gunner joke sound rather more real than funny!



Sorry.  Count me out.  I prefer to live and shop in safer climes.

Peter


Monday, July 8, 2024

Inflation and economy watch

 

When it comes to figuring out what our economy is doing, most of the high mucky-mucks of politics and finance are simply not to be trusted.  They insist that things are all wine and roses, running along quite splendidly . . . and meanwhile they're making sure they won't be affected by the downturn they must surely know is coming.

I've been accused of being a financial alarmist, of issuing warnings that never seem to be realized in reality.  Well, they mostly have already been realized, as regular observers of our economy will realize:  and they continue to be realized, on almost a daily basis.  To reinforce the message, here are five inputs from different sources that you can read and research for yourself, to figure out what's going on.  I highly recommend that you take the time to do so.

First, from Quoth The Raven, interviewing Chris Martenson:


The US Is A "Runaway Train"

"We clearly have a runaway monetary fiscal train at this point in time, and it's just headed towards what I call the nuclear reactor critical mass runaway moment,” Chris told me. “Higher interest payments beget more borrowing, which begets higher interest rates, which begets higher interest payments. And you're on that spiral. That's the death spiral, which happens to companies, but it can happen to countries too.”

He continued: “We could have probably kicked the can another cycle or two, but now you have the rest of the world backing away, if not trotting away from the U.S. dollar, and people don't get it yet. China's negatively hoarding their treasuries, they're dis-hoarding right now. So China's selling. Japan's in a world of hurt. I don't know if you see, but the yen's here banging around at the 160 level again. So they're selling, and their big bank has to probably sell some treasuries. Russia, obviously not buying any of our crap—they kicked that habit in 2018. But Saudi Arabia now not buying treasuries, dis-hoarding.”

And he raised questions about where, exactly, treasury demand is coming from, telling me: “So who's buying? Well, you go to the Treasury International Capital Report. You find out, oh good, the Cayman Islands stepped in. Dude, we need an audit of the Fed right away. I don't think it's always suspicious to see it, no, because every time we need the Cayman Islands and the UK to step up and buy just hand over fist treasuries, somehow they do.”

Finally, Chris — like most of us watching flawed policy unfold — says we’re definitely going back to QE: “But listen, here's a prediction. It's very easy to make for me. The Fed's going to have to go back to QE. It's not just lowering interest rates—that's going to do dick all for us at this point. They're going to go back to QE because we can't risk a treasury failure. We have $9 trillion of debt, new and existing, rolling through the auction market this next calendar year. And so the Fed's going to have to step in and start buying that stuff. Full stop. That's inflation."


Next, from CNN:


The world is sitting on a $91 trillion problem. ‘Hard choices’ are coming

The International Monetary Fund last week reiterated its warning that “chronic fiscal deficits” in the US must be “urgently addressed.”

. . .

Tackling America’s debt problem will require either tax hikes or cuts to benefits, such as social security and health insurance programs, said Karen Dynan, former chief economist at the US Treasury and now professor at the Harvard Kennedy School. “Many (politicians) are not willing to talk about the hard choices that are going to need to be made. These are very serious decisions… and they could be very consequential for people’s lives.”

. . .

In the United States, the federal government will spend $892 billion in the current fiscal year on interest payments — more than it has earmarked for defense and approaching the budget for Medicare, health insurance for older people and those with disabilities.

Next year, interest payments will top $1 trillion on national debt of more than $30 trillion, itself a sum roughly equal to the size of the US economy, according to the Congressional Budget Office, Congress’s fiscal watchdog.


Debt is a problem in itself, right enough, but it also boosts inflation, which is something affecting far more of us.  Here's Jeffrey Tucker, who reminds us about "The Many Faces Of Inflation".


There is clearly no chance that inflation has been running 3 to 5 percent. Once you do all the corrections to the data, you can easily generate a number 3 times that level or perhaps even 4 or 5.

No one knows for sure.

It’s not just higher prices for the same goods and services you used to buy.


Tucker goes on to list numerous inputs to overall inflation:

  • Shrinkflation;
  • Substitution of cheaper ingredients for more expensive ones;
  • Service costs;
  • Increases in taxes and fees;
  • Shipping and delivery charges;
  • Confusing and misleading charges and additions to your phone and utility bills;
  • Increased insurance costs (Tucker notes that "Neither home nor auto insurance are included in the calculation of the Consumer Price Index");
  • Higher interest rates;
  • Increases in home rental and purchase rates.

He concludes:


All of this stuff is complicated for a reason. It’s because all companies today are hiding their charges from the customer for fear of a revolt. If they are hiding them from the customer, they obviously and easily hide them from the data mavens at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

. . .

When you add it all up ... we find something approaching what used to be called hyperinflation. And this is taking place even as the business press is celebrating the end of inflation, and has been for fully two years!

Strange times indeed: the dollar is being gradually wrecked domestically while growing stronger internationally, and it’s never really been in the headlines.

This is why you feel so gaslit these days.


In another article a few days later, Tucker asks "Wait, How Much Have Groceries Gone Up?"


The most startling moment in the CNN debate last week between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump was not from the candidates. It was from moderator Jake Tapper, who said with a straight face as if it were just the science that grocery prices were up by 20 percent since President Biden was elected.

. . .

The trouble is that this fits with no one’s experiences. People on social media are posting receipts showing grocery prices up by anywhere between two and 10 times that rate.

In one viral video that offered receipts, a man bought 45 items (he says a full month of groceries) two years ago for $145. WalMart’s software allows him to reorder that now. He tried it just as a test. The new price: $414.

That’s an increase in two years of 185 percent! If we stretch that to three years assuming no inflation in the first, that’s an annualized increase of 61 percent. Over two years, it’s 92.5 percent.

Adding in some inflation in the first year, we can round it to 100 percent annualized, which is hyperinflation by any measure.

Commentators offered corrections that this is just one person’s experience. Maybe there was one item in there that went up vastly in price, changing the entire basket. All that is true. However, I tried looking at a few items that I bought in 2021 and found price increases of 54 percent. That’s just one item but a very normal one: lemon juice.

When all the anecdotal evidence points one way and all the official data points another way, we’ve got a problem. The distance between real experience and the official data is gigantic. And it raises the eternal problem first articulated by Chico Marx: “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?”

. . .

What about the CPI? It excludes interest rate increases on everything: taxes, housing, health insurance (accurately), homeowners insurance, car insurance, government services such as public schools, shrinkflation, quality declines, substitutions due to price, or additional service fees. In particular, on the last point, a basket must compare prices in two periods. A new service and convenience fee or a simple charge for processing is not included because it is new.

People often ask: Is this all a deliberate obfuscation or is it the limits of data collection? I tend toward the latter explanation while granting that reports of a lower rate are politically advantageous. People loathe inflation. No one wants to report bad news, and that might be true of data collectors themselves.

The data collectors are sticking with systems that seemed to work in the past, but the way in which inflationary pressures have boiled through production and consumption structures this time, which is without precedent, has simply outrun the ability of old-fashioned systems of calculation to keep up.

In essence, the real world is blowing up the models.

. . .

My suggestion: Dig through your receipts. The good old days live in your digital archive. Do your own calculation and see what you come up with.


Finally, Vox Day mentions an example that I've heard from several other people over the past few weeks.


A reader notices that the credit card companies are rapidly reducing the amount of credit available to their more conservative cardholders.

My husband and I run a small business and have noticed an unusual practice by credit card companies over the last 4-5 months.

Our business is seasonal, and during our ramp up in from February to April, we usually max out 6 cards on supplies and improvements for the coming season. And then the profits from May and June pay those down, before we start making real profits July-October. We’ve been doing this for over ten years, and typically the result of the max-out and quick pay down has been an increased credit limit. 

This year, as we have started the pay down, each large pay down amount, say $2000 on a $10,000 card for example, has come with a credit limit reduction of 50% – 100% of the amount paid. One card, upon paying it off in whole dropped from $2500 to $350 as the limit. 

We have no personal reasons that our limits in particular would be getting slashed after so many years of increases. So I am wondering if this is a systemic attempt to use debt deflation to slow the rate of inflation without further interest rate increases. 

More generally, if what I’m seeing is systemic, is this a correct understanding of debt deflation? 

This is 100 percent debt deflation. And in some ways, it’s more worrisome than the leadup to the 2008 contraction. Whereas in 2008, there was a dearth of people willing to borrow, now it is apparent that the banks simply can’t afford to offer the credit if there isn’t a sufficient amount of interest to be gained.

Which suggests that the 2024 credit cruch and subsequent financial institution failures will be bigger and more consequential than we witnessed in 2008. It’s even possible that the federal government will not be able to bail out most of the failing institutions.


I had something similar happen to me during the 2007/08 financial crisis.  At the time, I had a high-limit credit card on which I was carrying a large balance.  Out of the blue, when I made a large payment to reduce the balance, my credit limit was slashed by more than 50%, to equal the remaining balance.  When I protested, the card issuer informed me that they were reducing everybody's credit limit "due to the financial crisis", despite the fact that I'd never defaulted on a payment and was in good financial health.  They then informed me that I would lose my favorable interest rate and have to pay a greatly increased one on my outstanding balance, and would be required to further reduce my balance within a few months.  I closed my account rather than adhere to their ridiculous restrictions.

Unfortunately, it looks like more than a few people today are encountering similar policies.  Apart from Vox's correspondents, I've heard similar reports from at least a dozen sources.  If credit card issuers are being that cautious and restrictive, what does that say about their perspective on current and future economic conditions?  They're clearly preparing for something not very good.  Shouldn't we do likewise?

Food for thought.  I can only suggest that we all take these factors into account now, while we may still have some financial "wiggle room".

Peter


Wednesday, July 3, 2024

What if this happened to the Mississippi River?

 

I was interested to read that an ancient course of the Ganges River in India, some 2,500 years old, has been discovered.


Earthquakes, caused by the shifting of Earth’s tectonic plates, have the potential to transform the face of the world. Now, for the first time, scientists have evidence that earthquakes can reroute rivers: It happened to the Ganges River 2,500 years ago.

. . .

In a July 2016 study, Dr. Michael Steckler ... had previously reconstructed the tectonic plate movements — gigantic slowly moving pieces of Earth’s crust and uppermost mantle — that account for earthquakes experienced in the Ganges Delta.

His models showed that the likely source of earthquakes in the region is more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) away from the sand volcanoes that Chamberlain and her colleagues found. Based on the large size of the sand volcanoes, the quake must have been at least a 7 or an 8 magnitude — approaching the size of the Great 1906 San Francisco earthquake.

. . .

About 50 miles (85 kilometers) away from the sand volcanoes, the scientists also found a large river channel that filled with mud at roughly the same time. This finding indicates that 2,500 years ago, the course of the river dramatically changed. The proximity of these events in both time and space suggests that a massive earthquake 2,500 years ago is the cause of this rerouting of the Ganges.


There's more at the link.

The now-demonstrated fact that a major earthquake can change the course of even a huge river like the Ganges, moving it 50 to 100 miles away from its previous course, made me think hard.  I don't know that we've ever seen the like in North America;  most of our rivers have changed course through a combination of erosion and silting (as far as I know, anyway).  However, what might happen if something like the New Madrid Fault let go in a big way?


Earthquakes that occur in the New Madrid Seismic Zone potentially threaten parts of seven American states: Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, and to a lesser extent Mississippi and Indiana.

The 150-mile (240 km)-long seismic zone, which extends into five states, stretches southward from Cairo, Illinois; through Hayti, Caruthersville, and New Madrid in Missouri; through Blytheville into Marked Tree in Arkansas. It also covers a part of West Tennessee near Reelfoot Lake, extending southeast into Dyersburg. It is southwest of the Wabash Valley Seismic Zone.


Again, more at the link.

What's more, the New Madrid Fault runs slap bang underneath the Mississippi River.  If it really let go, it could easily produce an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 to 8 - it already has in the not too distant past.  If it were big enough, and lasted for long enough, what might that do to the biggest river on our continent?  If a waterway that big were to be displaced by 50 to 100 miles east or west, how much of our economy, our cities and our population would it take with it?  And what would happen to anything in the way?

It's a fascinating subject for speculation.  I wonder if it might make an interesting novel - perhaps set in older times, around the Civil War or Wild West period, as alternate history?  There were powerful earthquakes along the Fault in 1811-12.  What if they were repeated, say, 60 or 70 years later, at even greater intensity?

Hmmm . . .

Peter


Friday, June 21, 2024

Comment of the day

 

From reader HistoryPerson, commenting on a CNN report about the Boeing Starliner crew capsule, currently docked with the International Space Station pending resolution of several issues with its thrusters and other components:


How many Boeing people does it take to change a light bulb? The answer is unknown because nobody at Boeing knows how to change a light bulb.


Considering how much trouble the Boeing 737 Max airliner program is in, that might be all too appropriate . . .  Remember when Boeing blazed the trail that all other aircraft manufacturers followed?  How are the mighty fallen!

Peter


Thursday, June 13, 2024

If you can't take the heat, keep this out of the kitchen

 

I was amused, but also concerned, to read this BBC headline:  "Denmark recalls Korean ramen for being too spicy".


Denmark has recalled several spicy ramen noodle products by South Korean company Samyang, claiming that the capsaicin levels in them could poison consumers.

. . .

But the maker Samyang says there's no problem with the quality of the food.

"We understand that the Danish food authority recalled the products, not because of a problem in their quality but because they were too spicy," the firm said in a statement to the BBC.

"The products are being exported globally. But this is the first time they have been recalled for the above reason."

It's unknown if any specific incidents in Denmark had prompted authorities there to take action.

The Danish Veterinary and Food Administration said it had assessed the levels of capsaicin in a single packet to be "so high that they pose a risk of the consumer developing acute poisoning".


There's more at the link.

Actually, I can understand the Danes' concern.  I regularly buy various flavors of ramen noodles, because both my wife and I enjoy them as quick snacks.  Some of the Korean offerings have proved to be so hot that I got heartburn after only one or two mouthfuls, and one left me with a very tender feeling in my chest, almost as if I'd been punched there.  I don't like super-spicy foods anyway, and I've learned to avoid the so-called "red and black label" Korean offerings as just too spicy for my palate.

I wonder if we're seeing with Korean ramen noodles what we've already seen in the so-called "hot sauce" market?  Ever since some hot sauce manufacturers realized that there were individuals who'd try anything once, they've been competing to make their sauce hotter than anyone else's.  There are innumerable videos on YouTube showing a "hot sauce challenge".  Some of them are downright scary, judging by the looks on their participants' faces.  I get particularly worried when I see kids being suckered into these contests.  I suspect their less developed bodies might suffer real injury if the spice levels are too high.

Be that as it may, I'll continue to avoid red-and-black-packaged ramen noodles.  I've already had two heart attacks, and I don't want a third!

Peter


Saturday, June 8, 2024

Saturday Snippet: Seventy-five years ago today...

 

... one of the classic novels of the 20th century was published.



'Nineteen Eighty-Four' received critical acclaim from its first publication.  It's never been out of print, and in 2019 was named by the BBC as one of its '100 Most Inspiring Novels'.  It was also its author's swan song, so to speak:  Orwell died (of tuberculosis) eight months after its publication.

In honor of the anniversary of publication, I could find no better memorial than to bring you the opening chapter of the book.


It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. Winston Smith, his chin nuzzled into his breast in an effort to escape the vile wind, slipped quickly through the glass doors of Victory Mansions, though not quickly enough to prevent a swirl of gritty dust from entering along with him.

The hallway smelt of boiled cabbage and old rag mats. At one end of it a coloured poster, too large for indoor display, had been tacked to the wall. It depicted simply an enormous face, more than a metre wide: the face of a man of about forty-five, with a heavy black moustache and ruggedly handsome features. Winston made for the stairs. It was no use trying the lift. Even at the best of times it was seldom working, and at present the electric current was cut off during daylight hours. It was part of the economy drive in preparation for Hate Week. The flat was seven flights up, and Winston, who was thirty-nine and had a varicose ulcer above his right ankle, went slowly, resting several times on the way. On each landing, opposite the lift-shaft, the poster with the enormous face gazed from the wall. It was one of those pictures which are so contrived that the eyes follow you about when you move. BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU, the caption beneath it ran.

Inside the flat a fruity voice was reading out a list of figures which had something to do with the production of pig-iron. The voice came from an oblong metal plaque like a dulled mirror which formed part of the surface of the right-hand wall. Winston turned a switch and the voice sank somewhat, though the words were still distinguishable. The instrument (the telescreen, it was called) could be dimmed, but there was no way of shutting it off completely. He moved over to the window: a smallish, frail figure, the meagreness of his body merely emphasized by the blue overalls which were the uniform of the party. His hair was very fair, his face naturally sanguine, his skin roughened by coarse soap and blunt razor blades and the cold of the winter that had just ended.

Outside, even through the shut window-pane, the world looked cold. Down in the street little eddies of wind were whirling dust and torn paper into spirals, and though the sun was shining and the sky a harsh blue, there seemed to be no colour in anything, except the posters that were plastered everywhere. The black-moustachio'd face gazed down from every commanding corner. There was one on the house-front immediately opposite. BIG BROTHER IS WATCHING YOU, the caption said, while the dark eyes looked deep into Winston's own. Down at street level another poster, torn at one corner, flapped fitfully in the wind, alternately covering and uncovering the single word INGSOC. In the far distance a helicopter skimmed down between the roofs, hovered for an instant like a bluebottle, and darted away again with a curving flight. It was the police patrol, snooping into people's windows. The patrols did not matter, however. Only the Thought Police mattered.

Behind Winston's back the voice from the telescreen was still babbling away about pig-iron and the overfulfilment of the Ninth Three-Year Plan. The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously. Any sound that Winston made, above the level of a very low whisper, would be picked up by it; moreover, so long as he remained within the field of vision which the metal plaque commanded, he could be seen as well as heard. There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment. How often, or on what system, the Thought Police plugged in on any individual wire was guesswork. It was even conceivable that they watched everybody all the time. But at any rate they could plug in your wire whenever they wanted to. You had to live—did live, from habit that became instinct—in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard, and, except in darkness, every movement scrutinized.

Winston kept his back turned to the telescreen. It was safer; though, as he well knew, even a back can be revealing. A kilometre away the Ministry of Truth, his place of work, towered vast and white above the grimy landscape. This, he thought with a sort of vague distaste—this was London, chief city of Airstrip One, itself the third most populous of the provinces of Oceania. He tried to squeeze out some childhood memory that should tell him whether London had always been quite like this. Were there always these vistas of rotting nineteenth-century houses, their sides shored up with baulks of timber, their windows patched with cardboard and their roofs with corrugated iron, their crazy garden walls sagging in all directions? And the bombed sites where the plaster dust swirled in the air and the willow-herb straggled over the heaps of rubble; and the places where the bombs had cleared a larger patch and there had sprung up sordid colonies of wooden dwellings like chicken-houses? But it was no use, he could not remember: nothing remained of his childhood except a series of bright-lit tableaux occurring against no background and mostly unintelligible.

The Ministry of Truth—Minitrue, in Newspeak [Newspeak was the official language of Oceania. For an account of its structure and etymology see Appendix.]—was startlingly different from any other object in sight. It was an enormous pyramidal structure of glittering white concrete, soaring up, terrace after terrace, 300 metres into the air. From where Winston stood it was just possible to read, picked out on its white face in elegant lettering, the three slogans of the Party:

WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

The Ministry of Truth contained, it was said, three thousand rooms above ground level, and corresponding ramifications below. Scattered about London there were just three other buildings of similar appearance and size. So completely did they dwarf the surrounding architecture that from the roof of Victory Mansions you could see all four of them simultaneously. They were the homes of the four Ministries between which the entire apparatus of government was divided. The Ministry of Truth, which concerned itself with news, entertainment, education, and the fine arts. The Ministry of Peace, which concerned itself with war. The Ministry of Love, which maintained law and order. And the Ministry of Plenty, which was responsible for economic affairs. Their names, in Newspeak: Minitrue, Minipax, Miniluv and Miniplenty.

The Ministry of Love was the really frightening one. There were no windows in it at all. Winston had never been inside the Ministry of Love, nor within half a kilometre of it. It was a place impossible to enter except on official business, and then only by penetrating through a maze of barbed-wire entanglements, steel doors, and hidden machine-gun nests. Even the streets leading up to its outer barriers were roamed by gorilla-faced guards in black uniforms, armed with jointed truncheons.

Winston turned round abruptly. He had set his features into the expression of quiet optimism which it was advisable to wear when facing the telescreen. He crossed the room into the tiny kitchen. By leaving the Ministry at this time of day he had sacrificed his lunch in the canteen, and he was aware that there was no food in the kitchen except a hunk of dark-coloured bread which had got to be saved for tomorrow's breakfast. He took down from the shelf a bottle of colourless liquid with a plain white label marked VICTORY GIN. It gave off a sickly, oily smell, as of Chinese rice-spirit. Winston poured out nearly a teacupful, nerved himself for a shock, and gulped it down like a dose of medicine.

Instantly his face turned scarlet and the water ran out of his eyes. The stuff was like nitric acid, and moreover, in swallowing it one had the sensation of being hit on the back of the head with a rubber club. The next moment, however, the burning in his belly died down and the world began to look more cheerful. He took a cigarette from a crumpled packet marked VICTORY CIGARETTES and incautiously held it upright, whereupon the tobacco fell out on to the floor. With the next he was more successful. He went back to the livingroom and sat down at a small table that stood to the left of the telescreen. From the table drawer he took out a penholder, a bottle of ink, and a thick, quarto-sized blank book with a red back and a marbled cover.

For some reason the telescreen in the living-room was in an unusual position. Instead of being placed, as was normal, in the end wall, where it could command the whole room, it was in the longer wall, opposite the window. To one side of it there was a shallow alcove in which Winston was now sitting, and which, when the flats were built, had probably been intended to hold bookshelves. By sitting in the alcove, and keeping well back, Winston was able to remain outside the range of the telescreen, so far as sight went. He could be heard, of course, but so long as he stayed in his present position he could not be seen. It was partly the unusual geography of the room that had suggested to him the thing that he was now about to do.

But it had also been suggested by the book that he had just taken out of the drawer. It was a peculiarly beautiful book. Its smooth creamy paper, a little yellowed by age, was of a kind that had not been manufactured for at least forty years past. He could guess, however, that the book was much older than that. He had seen it lying in the window of a frowsy little junk-shop in a slummy quarter of the town (just what quarter he did not now remember) and had been stricken immediately by an overwhelming desire to possess it. Party members were supposed not to go into ordinary shops ('dealing on the free market', it was called), but the rule was not strictly kept, because there were various things, such as shoelaces and razor blades, which it was impossible to get hold of in any other way. He had given a quick glance up and down the street and then had slipped inside and bought the book for two dollars fifty. At the time he was not conscious of wanting it for any particular purpose. He had carried it guiltily home in his briefcase. Even with nothing written in it, it was a compromising possession.

The thing that he was about to do was to open a diary. This was not illegal (nothing was illegal, since there were no longer any laws), but if detected it was reasonably certain that it would be punished by death, or at least by twenty-five years in a forced-labour camp. Winston fitted a nib into the penholder and sucked it to get the grease off. The pen was an archaic instrument, seldom used even for signatures, and he had procured one, furtively and with some difficulty, simply because of a feeling that the beautiful creamy paper deserved to be written on with a real nib instead of being scratched with an ink-pencil. Actually he was not used to writing by hand. Apart from very short notes, it was usual to dictate everything into the speakwrite which was of course impossible for his present purpose. He dipped the pen into the ink and then faltered for just a second. A tremor had gone through his bowels. To mark the paper was the decisive act. In small clumsy letters he wrote: April 4th, 1984.

He sat back. A sense of complete helplessness had descended upon him. To begin with, he did not know with any certainty that this was 1984. It must be round about that date, since he was fairly sure that his age was thirty-nine, and he believed that he had been born in 1944 or 1945; but it was never possible nowadays to pin down any date within a year or two.

For whom, it suddenly occurred to him to wonder, was he writing this diary? For the future, for the unborn. His mind hovered for a moment round the doubtful date on the page, and then fetched up with a bump against the Newspeak word doublethink. For the first time the magnitude of what he had undertaken came home to him. How could you communicate with the future? It was of its nature impossible. Either the future would resemble the present, in which case it would not listen to him: or it would be different from it, and his predicament would be meaningless.

For some time he sat gazing stupidly at the paper. The telescreen had changed over to strident military music. It was curious that he seemed not merely to have lost the power of expressing himself, but even to have forgotten what it was that he had originally intended to say. For weeks past he had been making ready for this moment, and it had never crossed his mind that anything would be needed except courage. The actual writing would be easy. All he had to do was to transfer to paper the interminable restless monologue that had been running inside his head, literally for years. At this moment, however, even the monologue had dried up. Moreover his varicose ulcer had begun itching unbearably. He dared not scratch it, because if he did so it always became inflamed. The seconds were ticking by. He was conscious of nothing except the blankness of the page in front of him, the itching of the skin above his ankle, the blaring of the music, and a slight booziness caused by the gin.

Suddenly he began writing in sheer panic, only imperfectly aware of what he was setting down. His small but childish handwriting straggled up and down the page, shedding first its capital letters and finally even its full stops:

April 4th, 1984. Last night to the flicks. All war films. One very good one of a ship full of refugees being bombed somewhere in the Mediterranean. Audience much amused by shots of a great huge fat man trying to swim away with a helicopter after him, first you saw him wallowing along in the water like a porpoise, then you saw him through the helicopters gunsights, then he was full of holes and the sea round him turned pink and he sank as suddenly as though the holes had let in the water. audience shouting with laughter when he sank. then you saw a lifeboat full of children with a helicopter hovering over it. there was a middle-aged woman might have been a jewess sitting up in the bow with a little boy about three years old in her arms. little boy screaming with fright and hiding his head between her breasts as if he was trying to burrow right into her and the woman putting her arms round him and comforting him although she was blue with fright herself, all the time covering him up as much as possible as if she thought her arms could keep the bullets off him. then the helicopter planted a 20 kilo bomb in among them terrific flash and the boat went all to matchwood. then there was a wonderful shot of a child's arm going up up up right up into the air a helicopter with a camera in its nose must have followed it up and there was a lot of applause from the party seats but a woman down in the prole part of the house suddenly started kicking up a fuss and shouting they didnt oughter of showed it not in front of kids they didnt it aint right not in front of kids it aint until the police turned her turned her out i dont suppose anything happened to her nobody cares what the proles say typical prole reaction they never—

Winston stopped writing, partly because he was suffering from cramp. He did not know what had made him pour out this stream of rubbish. But the curious thing was that while he was doing so a totally different memory had clarified itself in his mind, to the point where he almost felt equal to writing it down. It was, he now realized, because of this other incident that he had suddenly decided to come home and begin the diary today.

It had happened that morning at the Ministry, if anything so nebulous could be said to happen.

It was nearly eleven hundred, and in the Records Department, where Winston worked, they were dragging the chairs out of the cubicles and grouping them in the centre of the hall opposite the big telescreen, in preparation for the Two Minutes Hate. Winston was just taking his place in one of the middle rows when two people whom he knew by sight, but had never spoken to, came unexpectedly into the room. One of them was a girl whom he often passed in the corridors. He did not know her name, but he knew that she worked in the Fiction Department. Presumably—since he had sometimes seen her with oily hands and carrying a spanner—she had some mechanical job on one of the novel-writing machines. She was a bold-looking girl, of about twenty-seven, with thick hair, a freckled face, and swift, athletic movements. A narrow scarlet sash, emblem of the Junior Anti-Sex League, was wound several times round the waist of her overalls, just tightly enough to bring out the shapeliness of her hips. Winston had disliked her from the very first moment of seeing her. He knew the reason. It was because of the atmosphere of hockey-fields and cold baths and community hikes and general clean-mindedness which she managed to carry about with her. He disliked nearly all women, and especially the young and pretty ones. It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies and nosers-out of unorthodoxy. But this particular girl gave him the impression of being more dangerous than most. Once when they passed in the corridor she gave him a quick sidelong glance which seemed to pierce right into him and for a moment had filled him with black terror. The idea had even crossed his mind that she might be an agent of the Thought Police. That, it was true, was very unlikely. Still, he continued to feel a peculiar uneasiness, which had fear mixed up in it as well as hostility, whenever she was anywhere near him.

The other person was a man named O'Brien, a member of the Inner Party and holder of some post so important and remote that Winston had only a dim idea of its nature. A momentary hush passed over the group of people round the chairs as they saw the black overalls of an Inner Party member approaching. O'Brien was a large, burly man with a thick neck and a coarse, humorous, brutal face. In spite of his formidable appearance he had a certain charm of manner. He had a trick of resettling his spectacles on his nose which was curiously disarming—in some indefinable way, curiously civilized. It was a gesture which, if anyone had still thought in such terms, might have recalled an eighteenth-century nobleman offering his snuffbox. Winston had seen O'Brien perhaps a dozen times in almost as many years. He felt deeply drawn to him, and not solely because he was intrigued by the contrast between O'Brien's urbane manner and his prize-fighter's physique. Much more it was because of a secretly-held belief—or perhaps not even a belief, merely a hope—that O'Brien's political orthodoxy was not perfect. Something in his face suggested it irresistibly. And again, perhaps it was not even unorthodoxy that was written in his face, but simply intelligence. But at any rate he had the appearance of being a person that you could talk to if somehow you could cheat the telescreen and get him alone. Winston had never made the smallest effort to verify this guess: indeed, there was no way of doing so. At this moment O'Brien glanced at his wristwatch, saw that it was nearly eleven hundred, and evidently decided to stay in the Records Department until the Two Minutes Hate was over. He took a chair in the same row as Winston, a couple of places away. A small, sandy-haired woman who worked in the next cubicle to Winston was between them. The girl with dark hair was sitting immediately behind.

The next moment a hideous, grinding speech, as of some monstrous machine running without oil, burst from the big telescreen at the end of the room. It was a noise that set one's teeth on edge and bristled the hair at the back of one's neck. The Hate had started.

As usual, the face of Emmanuel Goldstein, the Enemy of the People, had flashed on to the screen. There were hisses here and there among the audience. The little sandy-haired woman gave a squeak of mingled fear and disgust. Goldstein was the renegade and backslider who once, long ago (how long ago, nobody quite remembered), had been one of the leading figures of the Party, almost on a level with Big Brother himself, and then had engaged in counter-revolutionary activities, had been condemned to death, and had mysteriously escaped and disappeared. The programmes of the Two Minutes Hate varied from day to day, but there was none in which Goldstein was not the principal figure. He was the primal traitor, the earliest defiler of the Party's purity. All subsequent crimes against the Party, all treacheries, acts of sabotage, heresies, deviations, sprang directly out of his teaching. Somewhere or other he was still alive and hatching his conspiracies: perhaps somewhere beyond the sea, under the protection of his foreign paymasters, perhaps even—so it was occasionally rumoured—in some hiding-place in Oceania itself.

Winston's diaphragm was constricted. He could never see the face of Goldstein without a painful mixture of emotions. It was a lean Jewish face, with a great fuzzy aureole of white hair and a small goatee beard—a clever face, and yet somehow inherently despicable, with a kind of senile silliness in the long thin nose, near the end of which a pair of spectacles was perched. It resembled the face of a sheep, and the voice, too, had a sheep-like quality. Goldstein was delivering his usual venomous attack upon the doctrines of the Party—an attack so exaggerated and perverse that a child should have been able to see through it, and yet just plausible enough to fill one with an alarmed feeling that other people, less level-headed than oneself, might be taken in by it. He was abusing Big Brother, he was denouncing the dictatorship of the Party, he was demanding the immediate conclusion of peace with Eurasia, he was advocating freedom of speech, freedom of the Press, freedom of assembly, freedom of thought, he was crying hysterically that the revolution had been betrayed—and all this in rapid polysyllabic speech which was a sort of parody of the habitual style of the orators of the Party, and even contained Newspeak words: more Newspeak words, indeed, than any Party member would normally use in real life. And all the while, lest one should be in any doubt as to the reality which Goldstein's specious claptrap covered, behind his head on the telescreen there marched the endless columns of the Eurasian army—row after row of solid-looking men with expressionless Asiatic faces, who swam up to the surface of the screen and vanished, to be replaced by others exactly similar. The dull rhythmic tramp of the soldiers' boots formed the background to Goldstein's bleating voice.

Before the Hate had proceeded for thirty seconds, uncontrollable exclamations of rage were breaking out from half the people in the room. The self-satisfied sheeplike face on the screen, and the terrifying power of the Eurasian army behind it, were too much to be borne: besides, the sight or even the thought of Goldstein produced fear and anger automatically. He was an object of hatred more constant than either Eurasia or Eastasia, since when Oceania was at war with one of these Powers it was generally at peace with the other. But what was strange was that although Goldstein was hated and despised by everybody, although every day, and a thousand times a day, on platforms, on the telescreen, in newspapers, in books, his theories were refuted, smashed, ridiculed, held up to the general gaze for the pitiful rubbish that they were—in spite of all this, his influence never seemed to grow less. Always there were fresh dupes waiting to be seduced by him. A day never passed when spies and saboteurs acting under his directions were not unmasked by the Thought Police. He was the commander of a vast shadowy army, an underground network of conspirators dedicated to the overthrow of the State. The Brotherhood, its name was supposed to be. There were also whispered stories of a terrible book, a compendium of all the heresies, of which Goldstein was the author and which circulated clandestinely here and there. It was a book without a title. People referred to it, if at all, simply as the book. But one knew of such things only through vague rumours. Neither the Brotherhood nor the book was a subject that any ordinary Party member would mention if there was a way of avoiding it.

In its second minute the Hate rose to a frenzy. People were leaping up and down in their places and shouting at the tops of their voices in an effort to drown the maddening bleating voice that came from the screen. The little sandy-haired woman had turned bright pink, and her mouth was opening and shutting like that of a landed fish. Even O'Brien's heavy face was flushed. He was sitting very straight in his chair, his powerful chest swelling and quivering as though he were standing up to the assault of a wave. The dark-haired girl behind Winston had begun crying out 'Swine! Swine! Swine!', and suddenly she picked up a heavy Newspeak dictionary and flung it at the screen. It struck Goldstein's nose and bounced off: the voice continued inexorably. In a lucid moment Winston found that he was shouting with the others and kicking his heel violently against the rung of his chair. The horrible thing about the Two Minutes Hate was not that one was obliged to act a part, but that it was impossible to avoid joining in. Within thirty seconds any pretence was always unnecessary. A hideous ecstasy of fear and vindictiveness, a desire to kill, to torture, to smash faces in with a sledgehammer, seemed to flow through the whole group of people like an electric current, turning one even against one's will into a grimacing, screaming lunatic. And yet the rage that one felt was an abstract, undirected emotion which could be switched from one object to another like the flame of a blowlamp. Thus, at one moment Winston's hatred was not turned against Goldstein at all, but, on the contrary, against Big Brother, the Party and the Thought Police; and at such moments his heart went out to the lonely, derided heretic on the screen, sole guardian of truth and sanity in a world of lies. And yet the very next instant he was at one with the people about him, and all that was said of Goldstein seemed to him to be true. At those moments his secret loathing of Big Brother changed into adoration, and Big Brother seemed to tower up, an invincible, fearless protector, standing like a rock against the hordes of Asia, and Goldstein, in spite of his isolation, his helplessness, and the doubt that hung about his very existence, seemed like some sinister enchanter, capable by the mere power of his voice of wrecking the structure of civilization.

It was even possible, at moments, to switch one's hatred this way or that by a voluntary act. Suddenly, by the sort of violent effort with which one wrenches one's head away from the pillow in a nightmare, Winston succeeded in transferring his hatred from the face on the screen to the dark-haired girl behind him. Vivid, beautiful hallucinations flashed through his mind. He would flog her to death with a rubber truncheon. He would tie her naked to a stake and shoot her full of arrows like Saint Sebastian. He would ravish her and cut her throat at the moment of climax. Better than before, moreover, he realized why it was that he hated her. He hated her because she was young and pretty and sexless, because he wanted to go to bed with her and would never do so, because round her sweet supple waist, which seemed to ask you to encircle it with your arm, there was only the odious scarlet sash, aggressive symbol of chastity.

The Hate rose to its climax. The voice of Goldstein had become an actual sheep's bleat, and for an instant the face changed into that of a sheep. Then the sheep-face melted into the figure of a Eurasian soldier who seemed to be advancing, huge and terrible, his sub-machine gun roaring, and seeming to spring out of the surface of the screen, so that some of the people in the front row actually flinched backwards in their seats. But in the same moment, drawing a deep sigh of relief from everybody, the hostile figure melted into the face of Big Brother, black-haired, black-moustachio'd, full of power and mysterious calm, and so vast that it almost filled up the screen. Nobody heard what Big Brother was saying. It was merely a few words of encouragement, the sort of words that are uttered in the din of battle, not distinguishable individually but restoring confidence by the fact of being spoken. Then the face of Big Brother faded away again, and instead the three slogans of the Party stood out in bold capitals:

WAR IS PEACE
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
IGNORANCE IS STRENGTH

But the face of Big Brother seemed to persist for several seconds on the screen, as though the impact that it had made on everyone's eyeballs was too vivid to wear off immediately. The little sandyhaired woman had flung herself forward over the back of the chair in front of her. With a tremulous murmur that sounded like 'My Saviour!' she extended her arms towards the screen. Then she buried her face in her hands. It was apparent that she was uttering a prayer.

At this moment the entire group of people broke into a deep, slow, rhythmical chant of 'B-B!....B-B!....B-B!'—over and over again, very slowly, with a long pause between the first 'B' and the second—a heavy, murmurous sound, somehow curiously savage, in the background of which one seemed to hear the stamp of naked feet and the throbbing of tom-toms. For perhaps as much as thirty seconds they kept it up. It was a refrain that was often heard in moments of overwhelming emotion. Partly it was a sort of hymn to the wisdom and majesty of Big Brother, but still more it was an act of self-hypnosis, a deliberate drowning of consciousness by means of rhythmic noise. Winston's entrails seemed to grow cold. In the Two Minutes Hate he could not help sharing in the general delirium, but this sub-human chanting of 'B-B!....B-B!' always filled him with horror. Of course he chanted with the rest: it was impossible to do otherwise. To dissemble your feelings, to control your face, to do what everyone else was doing, was an instinctive reaction. But there was a space of a couple of seconds during which the expression of his eyes might conceivably have betrayed him. And it was exactly at this moment that the significant thing happened—if, indeed, it did happen.

Momentarily he caught O'Brien's eye. O'Brien had stood up. He had taken off his spectacles and was in the act of resettling them on his nose with his characteristic gesture. But there was a fraction of a second when their eyes met, and for as long as it took to happen Winston knew—yes, he knew!—that O'Brien was thinking the same thing as himself. An unmistakable message had passed. It was as though their two minds had opened and the thoughts were flowing from one into the other through their eyes. 'I am with you,' O'Brien seemed to be saying to him. 'I know precisely what you are feeling. I know all about your contempt, your hatred, your disgust. But don't worry, I am on your side!' And then the flash of intelligence was gone, and O'Brien's face was as inscrutable as everybody else's.

That was all, and he was already uncertain whether it had happened. Such incidents never had any sequel. All that they did was to keep alive in him the belief, or hope, that others besides himself were the enemies of the Party. Perhaps the rumours of vast underground conspiracies were true after all—perhaps the Brotherhood really existed! It was impossible, in spite of the endless arrests and confessions and executions, to be sure that the Brotherhood was not simply a myth. Some days he believed in it, some days not. There was no evidence, only fleeting glimpses that might mean anything or nothing: snatches of overheard conversation, faint scribbles on lavatory walls—once, even, when two strangers met, a small movement of the hand which had looked as though it might be a signal of recognition. It was all guesswork: very likely he had imagined everything. He had gone back to his cubicle without looking at O'Brien again. The idea of following up their momentary contact hardly crossed his mind. It would have been inconceivably dangerous even if he had known how to set about doing it. For a second, two seconds, they had exchanged an equivocal glance, and that was the end of the story. But even that was a memorable event, in the locked loneliness in which one had to live.

Winston roused himself and sat up straighter. He let out a belch. The gin was rising from his stomach.

His eyes re-focused on the page. He discovered that while he sat helplessly musing he had also been writing, as though by automatic action. And it was no longer the same cramped, awkward handwriting as before. His pen had slid voluptuously over the smooth paper, printing in large neat capitals— 

DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER
DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER 
DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER
DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER
DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER

over and over again, filling half a page.

He could not help feeling a twinge of panic. It was absurd, since the writing of those particular words was not more dangerous than the initial act of opening the diary, but for a moment he was tempted to tear out the spoiled pages and abandon the enterprise altogether.

He did not do so, however, because he knew that it was useless. Whether he wrote DOWN WITH BIG BROTHER, or whether he refrained from writing it, made no difference. Whether he went on with the diary, or whether he did not go on with it, made no difference. The Thought Police would get him just the same. He had committed—would still have committed, even if he had never set pen to paper—the essential crime that contained all others in itself. Thoughtcrime, they called it. Thoughtcrime was not a thing that could be concealed forever. You might dodge successfully for a while, even for years, but sooner or later they were bound to get you.

It was always at night—the arrests invariably happened at night. The sudden jerk out of sleep, the rough hand shaking your shoulder, the lights glaring in your eyes, the ring of hard faces round the bed. In the vast majority of cases there was no trial, no report of the arrest. People simply disappeared, always during the night. Your name was removed from the registers, every record of everything you had ever done was wiped out, your one-time existence was denied and then forgotten. You were abolished, annihilated: vaporized was the usual word.

For a moment he was seized by a kind of hysteria. He began writing in a hurried untidy scrawl:

theyll shoot me i don't care theyll shoot me in the back of the neck i dont care down with big brother they always shoot you in the back of the neck i dont care down with big brother—

He sat back in his chair, slightly ashamed of himself, and laid down the pen. The next moment he started violently. There was a knocking at the door.

Already! He sat as still as a mouse, in the futile hope that whoever it was might go away after a single attempt. But no, the knocking was repeated. The worst thing of all would be to delay. His heart was thumping like a drum, but his face, from long habit, was probably expressionless. He got up and moved heavily towards the door.


Chilling, but also prophetic.  We'll never know how many tens of millions of people died at the whim of totalitarian regimes during the 20th century.  Will that total be surpassed in the 21st?  It's by no means impossible . . .

Peter


Friday, June 7, 2024

Take humanity out of society, and what's left?

 

Yesterday Jeff Childers laid out the growing danger of fully autonomous robotic weapons, which have no conscience and no moral code, and can (and already do) kill without reference to a human operator or a controlling battlefield system.  I agree with him that it's a very disturbing element in warfare, one that threatens not only to make human combat more or less obsolete on the battlefront, but also pass an automated death sentence on anybody - combatant or civilian - in or near that battlefront.


Until very recently — so recently you will be forgiven lack of notice of the change — it was fashionable among elites to wring their hands over letting robots decide whether to kill people. Countless conferences were devoted to the subject, new UN departments were designed, and new job descriptions were drafted, spawning battalions of specialized military bioethicists.

Zing! What was that? That was bioethics flying out the window. Sorry, chaps, pack it in. All those new ethics experts and professors and opinion influencers just became redundant. They are moot.

. . .

On June 4th, 2024 — mark the date — the Washington Post quietly ran an unobtrusive “good news” op-ed headlined, “The Pentagon is learning how to change at the speed of war.” To call it “just an op-ed” would do violence to its malevolent significance. First of all, the author, spy novelist and columnist David Ignatius, is one of WaPo’s most senior writers, and it’s a poorly hidden secret he is inextricably intertwined with the deep security state.

. . .

David’s op-ed began gently chiding the U.S. military for, with the very best of intentions, its antiquated ‘addiction’ to overly complicated, finicky, insanely expensive, super high-tech, human-directed weapons systems, rather than cheap, practical, reliable, and effective alternatives like the Russians are using to beat the Dickens out of Ukraine.

. . .

Most folks now agree the Russians’ pragmatic, entrepreneurial approach in Ukraine has decisively proven its battlefield superiority over our fancy, high-tech, acronymized weapons that took decades to develop: our top-tier M1 Abrams tanks, our PATRIOT air defense systems, our HIMARS and ATACMS missiles, our JDAMS flying bombs, and our networked cluster munitions.

They all literally or figuratively bogged down in the Ukrainian rasputitsa. In other words, stuck in the mud.

But the bigger problem is that all our defense systems, from the most modest mobile artillery unit to the sky-scraping F35 intelligent fighter jet, are all e-something, or i-something. They are all linked together, connected to the internet, in a networked global battlefield information system (GBIS). They were designed to be centrally controllable from the confines of an op center safely concealed under two hundred feet of granite below the Pentagon in Washington, DC.

Unfortunately, the Russians — those ‘incompetent,’ slipshod, gas-station-with-nukes ice jockeys — somehow overtook us in electronic jamming technology. And then kept going, without looking back. The Russians are jamming all our toys!

Our Borg-like, electronically interconnected technology is dead in the water, or in the mud, if it can’t talk to the other parts of itself. Worse, Russian jamming cuts it all off from its handlers thousands of miles away in America. In other words, it’s damned useless, which is why Ignatius predicted it wouldn’t last five minutes against China.

Ignatius’ description of this perfectly foreseeable development understated the terror and panic on the part of U.S. generals. It all worked so well against Saddam Hussein’s disorganized army! But the generals are slowly and reluctantly coming to terms with the fact our entire arsenal is close to useless against near-peer adversaries like Russia and China.

In desperation, and because Ukraine uber alles, all those ethical concerns over autonomous weapons systems instantly became as obsolete as our trillion-dollar aircraft carriers. The ban on machines that kill on automatic has been swept aside.

It’s an emergency, dummy.

Then, Ignatius described the easy fix to the problem. The simple correction is truly autonomous weapons, weapons that can’t be jammed, weapons that don’t have to talk to each other, weapons that push the pesky humans right out of the picture. In the same way the military is now quietly moving aside the humans, David also glided right over the pesky ethical issues, which earned not a single syllable in his column.

. . .

Who’s responsible when the robot goes rogue and wipes out a village, or a wedding, or a whole city? Who’s tried for the war crimes?

Nobody, that’s who. You can’t expect technology to be perfect, dummy.

You can’t put a robot on trial. Come on, be serious.

The government knows full well that public outcry will only slow down the killer robot train. The military is now moving with mind-blowing, demonic, uncharacteristic speed toward building its dystopian, robot-armed future. The first fully autonomous killing machines have already been designed, built, and delivered to Ukraine.

. . .

Ignatius also assured us that the Air Force is, right now, building robotic fighter jets labeled with the grim euphemism “uncrewed.” The robots can keep on fighting, long after the human crews are gone.

Similarly, last month, the Navy formed a new squadron of hundreds of fully autonomous, uncrewed boats, a water swarm with the unwieldy name, “Global Autonomous Reconnaissance Craft.” GARC doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, but maybe it echoes the last thing dying sailors say.

Instead of applying that awkward acronym, the Navy has nicknamed its new robot squadron the “Hell Hounds.”

. . .

It’s easy to blame Congress for failing to pull the plug, slow things down, or at least hold a public debate. But remember: attractive, well-spoken military analysts constantly deliver confidential, top-secret briefings to Congressmen, direly warning them China will win in five minutes unless we do something.

What can I say? It’s 2024. Here come the terminators, and nothing can stop it. We all knew this day was coming; we just didn’t think it would come from us.

Somebody track down that scrappy Sarah Connor and tell her it’s time to report for duty.


There's more at the link.  Recommended reading.

(Also recommended is this article at Strategy Page, analyzing how drone operations are dominating the war in Ukraine, and assessing their impact.  It doesn't look at the autonomous aspect, but is nevertheless a valuable summary of the current state of the art.)

This is a very ominous development for all the reasons Mr. Childers has stated.  However, think of the wider implications.  Nations ruled by dictatorial elites now have tools at their disposal that can steamroller right over opposition movements, and suppress rebellion and civil war before they even get out of the starting gate.  An oppressive regime no longer needs battalions and regiments and divisions of storm troopers to control its subjects;  it merely needs enough autonomous robots that will do its bidding without moral considerations or ethical hesitation.  A town is rebelling against government authority?  Send in the robots and wipe out every man, woman and child in that town.  There's an outcry afterwards?  Blame the robots, which were "not properly programmed", and put on trial and execute a couple of sacrificial puppets who can be alleged to have been responsible for that erroneous programming.  There!  Problem solved! - and the regime is still in power.  After the third, or fourth, or fifth such town is "depopulated", there won't be many more willing to take a stand for freedom, will there?

If you remove humanity from society, it becomes an inhuman dystopia.  That's what modern warfare is becoming, at least if Ukraine is any example.  What if the rest of society follows suit?

Scary thought . . .

Peter