Showing posts with label Tragedy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tragedy. Show all posts

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Saturday Snippet: The day the Mississippi ran backwards

 

As mentioned in a blog post a couple of weeks ago, I've been reading about the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812.  Among other sources, I found "When the Mississippi Ran Backwards: Empire, Intrigue, Murder, and the New Madrid Earthquakes".



It's a long (sometimes over-long) but very interesting account of the earthquakes, based upon survivors' reports and post-earthquake investigations.  I'm still busy with it, and finding it very informative.

For today's Snippet, I thought I'd pick a chapter describing the Mississippi River itself during and immediately after the earthquake.  Remember that at this period in history, steamboats had not yet become commonplace, so many living near the river had never seen them or even heard of them - hence their reactions to this strange critter of the waters.


ABOUT 125 miles northeast of Rocky Hill, the steamboat New Orleans was resting quietly on the evening of December 15 [1811]. Apart from not having been able to recruit any investors for the Ohio Steamboat Navigation Company, the voyage of the New Orleans was going as well as Nicholas Roosevelt could have hoped. The boat had performed admirably at the Falls, and she was on a reasonably timely schedule. And now Roosevelt was the proud father of a son.

 Like everybody else within a three-hundred-mile radius of New Madrid, those aboard the steamboat were awakened by the 2:15 a.m. shock. With the shakes continuing throughout the night, they passed the rest of the anxious time without sleep. Yet they may have been the most fortunate of everyone in the area—because of the size and stability of their boat, the water was safer than land.

As soon as it was light enough to travel, the New Orleans was able to get under way. Moving downstream, the vibrations and noise of the engine kept the people on board from feeling the impact of the ongoing shocks, including the powerful aftershock that morning. But the Roosevelts’ Newfoundland dog, Tiger, felt the tremors and alternated between whining and growling as he prowled around the deck, and laying his head softly in Lydia Roosevelt’s lap, which indicated to the humans that “it was a sure sign of a commotion of more than usual violence.”

Insulated from the quake’s effect by this awesome new vehicle of a dawning age, those aboard the steamboat calmly ate their breakfast, but as the New Orleans continued downriver, signs of the quakes became more readily apparent. The passengers saw trees swaying as if in a high gale although, in fact, there was no wind blowing. They watched as an enormous section of riverbank suddenly tore away and dropped into the river. As the boat grew closer to the epicenter, it was lifted by quake-induced waves, and many on board the New Orleans were struck with seasickness.

The boat’s pilot, Andrew Jack, who was on intimate terms with the river, found the channel altered to the point where he was forced to concede he was lost. New hazards lay everywhere, and heretofore reliably deep water was now filled with uprooted trees. Without the familiar channel, Jack chose to stay in the middle of the river and hope for the best. It slowed him down, but it was a much safer way to proceed.

As the big boat passed the small settlements along the lower Ohio, the evidence mounted. Henderson, Highland Creek, Shawnee Town, and Cash Creek all showed earthquake damage. All along the route, banks were caved in and trees were down, and the shapes of familiar islands were changed.

The following night, the New Orleans put up about six miles above the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi, and not more than twenty-five miles from the Rocky Hill plantation. Not long after the crew and passengers had retired, there were urgent cries for help from the forward cabin. Assuming an Indian attack, Roosevelt jumped out of bed. He quickly grabbed the ceremonial sword from the outfit he wore for official receptions, and flew out the door of the family’s sleeping quarters.

Reaching the forward cabin, Roosevelt found not Indians but flames. Roosevelt’s mind jumped to the worst conclusion—an engine explosion, the most dreaded hazard on steamboats. But as he glanced around the room, he saw the real cause. In anticipation of the following day’s needs, the crewman who had been assigned to tend the fire had stacked up a pile of green wood near the heating stove to dry it out. Exhausted by the stress of the past two days’ events, the man had fallen asleep, and the wood caught fire. The flames quickly jumped to the finely crafted wood of the cabin walls, and suddenly the whole boat was imperiled. Roosevelt regained his wits and took command, urgently barking out orders. With Roosevelt encouraging his men all the while, the blaze was soon extinguished, but not before the exquisite paneling of the forward cabin was all but destroyed.

The following day, when the New Orleans reached the confluence of the two rivers, the water level in the big river was unusually high and the current had slackened, an unmistakable indication of flooding. When the big boat arrived at New Madrid that afternoon they found the place in a shambles. The entire town had dropped fifteen feet, down to the level of the Mississippi. A huge chunk of the riverfront, including the city cemetery, was gone, carried away by the river. Many chimneys and fences were down; others fell before their eyes. Houses were damaged. What had been a large plain behind the town was now a lake. The earth’s surface was rent by hundred-foot-long chasms. People and animals wandered about in a state of somnambulance.

As the huge boat approached, many of the townspeople fled in terror. The braver among the inhabitants, however, hailed the boat and begged to be taken aboard. Their frantic pleas for help threw Roosevelt into a quandary. There were far more people wanting to board the New Orleans than the boat’s store of provisions could possibly accommodate. Moreover, these refugees had no place to go, and when they were put ashore at Natchez or New Orleans, they would have no means of support.

The Roosevelts looked at the heartrending scene, and despite their instinct to take the refugees aboard, they knew they had no choice. Sadly, “there was no choice but to turn a deaf ear to the cries of the terrified inhabitants of the doomed town.”

* * * * *

As bad as the damage was on land, conditions were worse on the river. The New Orleans had been protected by her weight and size. The rest of the boats on the Mississippi were tossed about like toys in a bathtub.

 Firmin La Roche, a sailor by trade, was the captain of a small fleet of three boats transporting furs from St. Louis to New Orleans in December 1811. (After the Battle of Tippecanoe, riverboats increasingly tended to travel in groups as protection against Indian attack.) There were eleven other men on the three boats; on La Roche’s vessel were a crewhand named Henry Lamel, a slave named Ben, and Fr. Joseph, a French priest who had been a missionary among the Osage and was now returning to France. The convoy left St. Louis on December 8 but twice in the first week was delayed en route for repairs.

On the evening of December 15, the convoy tied up about eight miles north of New Madrid, at a landing near the home of La Roche’s cousin, John Le Clerq. The boatmen ate supper and retired for the night.

At about 2:15 a.m., La Roche was jolted awake by a thunderous crash that turned the boat on its side. Lamel, sleeping in the next bed, was flung on top of La Roche, and the two men landed hard against the side of the boat.

La Roche, Lamel, Ben, and Fr. Joseph scrambled to the deck to see what had happened. The impenetrable darkness was filled only with sounds—an unidentifiable crashing and grinding, and booming explosions and ominous rumblings emanating from the depths of the earth. For almost an hour, they had no reference point until, at around 3:00 a.m., the haze cleared enough for La Roche to see thousands of trees crashing down and huge sections of shoreline tumbling into the river.

With the boat pitching and rolling, Lamel managed to cut the rope that was tied to a log near the bank. The boat had just begun to float away from shore when it was lifted by a monstrous rush of water from downstream. “So great a wave came up the river,” wrote La Roche, “that I never have seen one like it at sea.”

The four men grabbed on to whatever part of the boat they could and held on for dear life. Trying to row or steer was futile—not capsizing or being thrown overboard was the best they could hope for as they were swept along by the gigantic wave. The river rose to as high as thirty feet above its normal level, and the boat was carried upriver, toward St. Louis, for more than a mile. The mighty Mississippi was running backwards!

The angry river was surging and roiling. John Weisman, a flatboat pilot who was transporting Kentucky whiskey, reported that “if my flatboat boat load of whiskey had sprung a leak and made the ‘Father of Waters’ drunk it could not have committed more somersaults. It seemed that old Vesuvius himself was drunk.” Vessels were tossed about so violently that experienced boatmen had trouble staying on their feet.

Sandbars and the points of islands dissolved into the furious waters, taking countless numbers of trees down with them, thereby creating new hazards for already beleaguered riverboat pilots. Great quantities of long-submerged trees were also dislodged from the river bottom, freed from the depths “to become merciless enemies of navigation,” as one later report so aptly phrased it.

One man whose boat was wrecked on a planter climbed onto its trunk as his vessel went down. Grateful at least for his life having been spared, he soon realized to his dismay that the snag was slipping down into the raging river. Over the course of the next few hours, he desperately clung to the trunk, calling for help as several boats passed by. Finally, a skiff managed to row a short distance upstream of the man and float down alongside the planter. As it passed under him, the exhausted fellow let go of the trunk and tumbled into the boat.

Neither of Firmin La Roche’s other two boats was in sight; one vessel and its crew would never be seen again. “Everywhere there was noise like thunder,” wrote La Roche, “and the ground was shaking the trees down, and the air was thick with something like smoke. There was much lightning … I do not know how long this went on, for we were all in great terror, expecting death.” La Roche, Lamel, and Ben knelt and received absolution from Fr. Joseph.

Finally, the great wave began to subside, and the river gradually resumed its normal direction. Near New Madrid, several boats that had been carried up a small stream just above the town were left high and dry, several miles from the river.

As La Roche’s boat was carried back downstream, the sky began to lighten. On the Kentucky side of the river the boatmen saw two houses burning. When they reached New Madrid, there were several more buildings in flames, and a crowd of about twenty terror-stricken people crowded together on the high bank, crying out and cringing in fear. The crewmen tied up to the shore, but before anyone could disembark, a nearby hickory tree suddenly cracked and came crashing down on the boat. A branch whipped into La Roche’s left arm, splintering the humerus like a toothpick. Ben was pinned beneath the tree trunk. The others rushed to his aid, but when they managed, with some difficulty, to pull his body out, it was limp. Ben was dead.

The tree had also damaged the boat, which began taking on water. Thinking they would be drowned, the men frantically climbed onto the shore, dragging Ben’s lifeless body with them. When the people on land saw a priest among the group, they all knelt, and Fr. Joseph gave them absolution as well.

La Roche’s boat did not sink, however, and the townspeople loudly urged the boatmen to return to their craft, believing they would be safer on the water. Having already experienced several terrifying hours on the river, however, the crew were of the exact opposite opinion, and they chose to stay on land. They hurriedly dug a shallow grave and buried Ben.

All the while, the shocks continued, accompanied by constant sounds issuing from the earth. As soon as it was light enough, the crew set about repairing the boat. When it was mended to the extent that they could continue, the people onshore began crowding on board and dumping the cargo of furs into the river in order to lighten the load. (La Roche later estimated his losses at $600.) Finally, when no more souls could safely fit aboard, they pushed off. Unfortunately, the boat leaked badly, and the overloaded vessel was in danger of sinking. Lamel bailed furiously, but finally La Roche insisted that the passengers be deposited back onshore.

As they made their way toward New Orleans, the boatmen saw evidence of earthquake damage for 250 miles south of New Madrid. Concerning the loss of life, Fr. Joseph wrote, “We made no effort to find out how many people had been killed, although it was told us that many were. We saw the dead bodies of several and afterwards drowned persons we saw floating in the river.”

* * * * *

Earthquakes in themselves do not usually kill people. People are killed by the secondary phenomena associated with earthquakes, which include tsunamis, landslides, fires, falling structures, soil liquefaction, and land fissures.

Fires are one of the greatest hazards in an earthquake. In modern quakes they can be caused by exposed electrical wires or broken gas lines. For example, in the 1906 San Francisco quake, for which death toll estimates range from seven hundred to three thousand people, the greatest number of casualties was caused by the resulting fire that swept through the city. In the New Madrid quakes, the burning buildings witnessed by La Roche were a result of candles or overturned woodstoves that still held embers of the previous evening’s fire.

The wave that carried La Roche and his crew upriver and created the impression that the river had reversed its flow was another deadly secondary effect. It was similar in cause and result to a tsunami. Two factors most likely were responsible. First, a large piece of land somewhere near Little Prairie was thrust up and temporarily dammed the river—quite possibly the “great loaf of bread” recorded by Michael Braunm, who observed that after the “loaf” burst, the river was running retrograde. When the water upstream, pushed along by the current, hit the wall of land, it had no place to go but back in the direction from which it had come, causing a huge wave, just as deformation of the ocean floor during an earthquake at sea displaces vast quantities of water that can result in a tsunami. In addition, enormous sections of riverbank were caving in all around—a Captain John Davis recorded seeing “30 or 40 acres” fall—and when they did, they displaced huge volumes of water, adding to the size of the wave. When the land that had dammed up the river began to erode away, which happened relatively quickly because of its soft character, the current once again flowed naturally.

* * * * *

John Bradbury, a Scottish naturalist engaged in an extensive collection of North American plant specimens, was on a boat about a hundred miles south of New Madrid when the first quake hit. He had been entrusted by a friend with delivering a cargo of a ton and a half of lead from St. Louis to New Orleans; on board with him were a passenger named John Bridge and a crew of five French Creoles, including M. Morin, the boatmaster or patron. On the night of December 15, the boat was tied up to a sloping bank on a small island near the second Chickasaw Bluff, near present-day Memphis, about five hundred yards above a shallow stretch of river so treacherous that it was known as the Devil’s Channel or the Devil’s Race Ground. Through this channel, the river rushed so ferociously that the roar of the water could be heard for miles. With the sun already having set, Bradbury determined that the channel was too dangerous to attempt and decided to wait until morning.

When the quake hit, Bradbury and the others were awakened by the noise and “so violent an agitation of the boat that it appeared in danger of upsetting.” They rushed onto the deck. The caving banks had caused such a swell in the river that the boat nearly capsized and sank.

Morin, the patron, was beside himself with fear. “O mon Dieu!” he cried, continuing in French, “We are going to die!” Bradbury tried to calm him, but Morin ran off the boat crying, “Get onto land! Get onto land!” The deckhands followed him onto the island.

Bradbury decided to go ashore as well. As he was preparing to leave the boat, another shock was unleashed. When Bradbury reached the island, he found a frighteningly large fissure. With his candle, he walked the length of the fissure and concluded that it was at least eighty yards long; at either end, the perpendicular banks had crumbled into the Mississippi. With a shudder he realized that had his boat been moored to a perpendicular bank rather than a sloping one, he and his companions would have been goners.

As the sky lightened, the horrors began to emerge. “The river was covered with foam and drift timber, and had risen considerably.” As Bradbury and his party waited for enough light to embark, a pair of empty canoes came drifting downstream on the faster-than-normal current. These canoes were of the type towed by boats and used for getting ashore and boarding other vessels, and Bradbury took it as “a melancholy proof” that some of the boats they had passed the previous day had perished along with their crews.

The shocks continued; while on the island, Bradbury counted twenty-seven more by dawn. At daybreak, he gave the order to embark, and everyone returned to the boat. Two of the deckhands were loosening the ropes when yet another powerful shock hit. In terror, the two men ran up onto dry land, but before they could get across the fissure that had opened in the night, a tree came smashing down to block their way. The bank of the island was rapidly disappearing into the river. Bradbury called out to loosen the ropes, and the two hands ran back to the boat.

Now they were once again on the river, but as the boat approached the Devil’s Race Ground, Bradbury saw that the channel was chocked with trees and driftwood that had floated down during the night. The passage appeared blocked. Equally distressing, Morin and his crew appeared to be in such a state of panic that Bradbury concluded they were incapable of getting the boat safely through the channel.

Bradbury thought it prudent to stop once more to give the men time to get their emotions under control. Spying an island with a gently sloping bank, the boat moored again, and the crew began preparing breakfast. Bradbury and Morin went ashore to get a close look at the channel and determine where the safest passage might be. As they stood and talked, the 7:15 aftershock arrived, nearly knocking them off their feet. Another tremor hit while they ate breakfast, and as they prepared to reboard the boat, there was still another, which nearly pitched John Bridge into the river, as the sand suddenly gave way beneath him.

Before giving the order to push off, Bradbury noticed that the deckhands were still in a state of fearful paralysis, so he proposed to Morin that the patron give each of them a glass of whiskey to bolster their courage. After they had drunk up, Bradbury gave them a spirited pep talk, reminding them that their safety and the safety of the boat depended on their efforts.

Finally, the boat untied and was once again on the water. Their confidence buoyed by the whiskey and Bradbury’s exhortations, Morin and the hands successfully threaded the boat through the perilous channel, making several instantaneous changes in their course in order to avoid disaster. When they had passed the danger, the men threw down their oars and crossed themselves, then gave a loud cheer and congratulated one another on having come through the Devil’s Race Ground in one piece.

Bradbury’s summing up of the total effect of the December 16 quakes was that they “produced an idea that all nature was in a state of dissolution.”

* * * * *

The crews of countless boats either drowned or abandoned their crafts to take their chances on land. The misfortunes of these men proved a source of salvation for the residents of New Madrid. In the days following December 16, the river deposited manna at their shores, as boat after unmanned boat floated down into the New Madrid harbor, bringing a bounty of meat, flour, cheese, butter, and apples. The town was still a disaster zone, but at least the people had enough to eat.

The shaking went on—as Jared Brooks wrote on December 16, “it is doubtful if the earth is at rest from these troubles 10 minutes during the day and succeeding night”—persisting throughout the course of the following days. Three days later, Stephen F. Austin—later known as “The Father of Texas”—landed at New Madrid and recorded his impressions. “The Philanthropic emotions of the soul are never more powerfully exercised,” he wrote, “than when called on [to] witness some great and general calamity … throwing a hitherto fertile country into dessolation and plunging such of the unfortunate wretches who survive the ruin, into Misery and dispair.”

“These emotions I experianced when on landing at N. Madrid the effects by the Earthquake were so prominently visible as well in the sunken and shattered situation of the Houses, as in the countenance of the few who remained to mourn over the ruins of their prosperity and past happiness.”

Several days afterwards, the camp of Little Prairie refugees received word that New Madrid had survived and that food was available there. Led by George Ruddell, the two hundred Little Prairie survivors immediately set out on a three-day march and reached New Madrid on Christmas Eve.

* * * * *

As the New Orleans chugged its way down the hazard-choked river, keeping to the middle as much as possible, those on board continued to witness the aftermath of the earthquake’s wrath. Earlier in the voyage, the steamboat had always made fast to the shore at night, but with so many sections of riverbank caving in without warning, that was no longer possible. Instead, pilot Andrew Jack now anchored to any of the larger islands that dotted the river.

One night soon after passing New Madrid, with the shakes continuing, the steamboat put up on the downstream side of one such island, identified by Zadok Cramer in The Navigator as Island 32 (the islands were numbered consecutively, beginning at the mouth of the Ohio), about fifty miles below Little Prairie. In the night, the passengers were awakened by the sounds of scraping and banging against the sides of the boat. Several times, the vessel was shaken by severe blows. Conferring with Jack, Roosevelt concluded that the sounds and jolts, which would continue all through the night, were caused by driftwood that was being swept downriver. They passed the word to the other passengers and then returned to bed.

When the people of the New Orleans got out on deck the next morning, they were stunned. They were no longer anchored to the island—it appeared that the steamboat had slipped anchor and floated downriver all night.

But Pilot Jack, with his encyclopedic knowledge of the river, looked around and pointed out to the others the landmarks that showed they were in the same spot at which they had dropped anchor the previous day. The boat had not moved at all—instead, the island had broken up in the night and been carried away by the current! The sounds and jolts they had heard and felt throughout the night were caused by pieces of the disintegrating island floating up against the boat.

Island 32 was not the only one to disintegrate. Island 94, known as Stack Island or Crow’s Nest Island, about 450 miles below New Madrid and 175 miles above Natchez, also disappeared.

A tale published in the St. Louis Globe-Democrat in 1902 purported to tell the story of “The Last Night of Island Ninety-Four.” According to this account, on the evening of December 15, a Captain Sarpy was en route from St. Louis to New Orleans in his keelboat, the Belle Heloise, with his wife and daughter and a large sum of money. At nightfall, the keelboat tied up at Island 94. This island had been a long-standing lair for river denizens of every stripe, including Samuel Mason, the notorious river pirate who had been apprehended in Little Prairie a decade earlier, only to escape while being transported on the river. Two years before Sarpy’s trip, however, a force of 150 keelboatmen had invaded the island and cleaned out the den of thieves, after which the island became a safe haven, and now, Sarpy thought to use the island’s abandoned blockhouse to lodge his family and crew for the night.

As Sarpy and two of his men explored the island, however, they overheard talking in the blockhouse and, peering in the windows, listened as a group of fifteen river pirates discussed plans to fall upon the Belle Heloise the following morning. Sarpy and his crewmen hurried back to the boat and quietly pushed off, tying up at a hidden place in the willows on the west bank about a mile below Island 94.

The following morning, after weathering a night of earthquakes, Sarpy looked upstream to see that Island 94 had disintegrated—the entire landmass was gone, and presumably, its criminal inhabitants along with it.

Whether or not the story is true, Island 94 did indeed disappear.


That must have been an amazing and very frightening experience for all concerned, particularly because the science of that day was not sufficiently far advanced for the ordinary person to understand what was happening.  It must have felt to many like Divine vengeance was being visited upon them for their sins.

If an identical earthquake were to happen in that area again today, with its vastly greater population and much more developed infrastructure, I shudder to think how many would be killed.  It would probably be the single biggest natural disaster to strike the USA since the Declaration of Independence.

Peter


Friday, May 17, 2024

It doesn't help to ignore reality. Sooner or later, it'll catch up with you.

 

Remember the collapse of the Surfside condo complex in Miami, Florida, almost three years ago?


On June 24, 2021, at approximately 1:22 a.m. EDT, Champlain Towers South, a 12-story beachfront condominium in the Miami suburb of Surfside, Florida, United States, partially collapsed, causing the deaths of 98 people. Four people were rescued from the rubble, but one died of injuries shortly after arriving at the hospital. Eleven others were injured. Approximately thirty-five were rescued the same day from the un-collapsed portion of the building, which was demolished ten days later.

A contributing factor under investigation is long-term degradation of reinforced concrete structural support in the basement-level parking garage under the pool deck, due to water penetration and corrosion of the reinforcing steel. The problems had been reported in 2018 and noted as "much worse" in April 2021. A $15 million program of remedial works had been approved before the collapse, but the main structural work had not started.


There's more at the link.

The full impact of that tragedy is only now becoming evident in condo complexes up and down the Florida coast.  The same neglect that led to the Surfside collapse has been found in literally hundreds of other buildings, and the repair bills are colossal - so much so that owners can't afford them.


Have a Florida condo? Can you afford a $100,000 or higher special assessment for new safety standards?

After the collapse of a Surfside Building on June 24, 2021that killed 98 people, the state passed a structural safety law that is now biting owners.

Not only are insurance rates soaring, but owners are hit with huge special assessments topping $100,000.

. . .

Those who cannot sell and don’t have the special assessment, will be evicted and their units seized for whatever the Associations can get for them.

South Florida listings have doubled in the past year to over 18,000. Few of those units will sell, and those that do sell will be at a huge haircut.


Again, more at the link.

The structural safety law is entirely necessary from any rational perspective.  Unfortunately, many of those who bought condos in Florida - some of them decades ago, when prices were far lower - are now on the hook to pay for those repairs.  Some can afford it, but others have had no choice but to try to sell their now almost valueless condos to buyers who aren't prepared to pay for the sins or omissions of the past.  Many of them are now facing bankruptcy and possible homelessness.

What I find most infuriating is that the condo associations should have carried out normal preventive maintenance over the years;  should have had their buildings inspected regularly to detect problems before they got out of control;  and should have set aside adequate financial reserves to pay to repair them.  That's nothing more than basic common sense:  but it seems few did so.  The condo owners didn't want the trouble or expense involved.  To make matters worse, many of them now affected by the problem are trying to weasel their way out of it any way they can - despite the consequences of doing so being so starkly visible to everyone concerned.


State law previously allowed condos to waive reserve funding year after year, leading many buildings ... to keep next to nothing in their coffers.

. . .

Residents still meet ... to celebrate birthdays. But now, those gatherings are often charged with owners pooling documentation in hope of finding evidence that the assessments should be lower.

Some are worried developers may already be purchasing condos in the building for a potential takeover, where a developer tries to gain control of a building to knock it down and build a newer, more luxurious one. These condo terminations are happening up and down the state’s coastline. While the rules can vary by building, if enough people vote to sell their units, the others have to follow along.


More at the link.

One can't blame the developers.  If a unit's value has plummeted thanks to the cost of repairs, of course those with money - and an eye to make more money - are going to take advantage of the situation by buying it at a fire sale price, and buying as many as they can, in order to outvote longer-term residents and make more money out of redeveloping the site and/or building.  I'm afraid that's yet another consequence of owners refusing to invest in their condos during the "golden years", and now having to pay huge sums due to their previous neglect.  What goes around, comes around.

I suppose this is yet another example of why it's foolish to trust one's home and finances to a group of owners who may not have the right priorities.  The few responsible owners who would have been willing to pay for upkeep were undoubtedly outvoted by those who preferred to minimize maintenance in order to maximize their budgets, individual and corporate.  Now that they're all in the same (sinking) boat, they don't want to acknowledge that it's ultimately their own fault.  Human nature is still as self-centered as always . . .


*Sigh*


Peter


Saturday, April 20, 2024

Saturday Snippet: A survivor's story about a modern crisis

 

We've mentioned Selco Begovic in these pages several times.  He lived through the Bosnian war from 1992-1995, and has written three books incorporating his and others' stories from that war, plus lessons learned that we can apply in other emergency situations.  He's one of the few writers in that field who's "been there and done that", and speaks with the authority of hard-won experience.

This morning's snippet is from his book "SHTF Survival Stories:  Memories from the Balkan War".  I highly recommend it, and Selco's other books as well.



The blurb reads:


There are many books out there on all the different aspects of preparedness and survival that can provide you with information, checklists, and theoretical solutions to potential problems. But no matter how much you read or how well-researched the books you choose are, there’s only so much you can take away from these tomes. Getting your information from someone who has survived a "sh*t hit the fan" crisis will take your preparedness to an entirely different level. Meet Selco, a legend in the preparedness world. He survived in a city that was under siege for more than a year. He had no power, no running water, no stores for supplies, and every day, he ran the risk of meeting a violent death, whether by shells, sniper fire, or a person intent on hurting others. This book is a collection of memories from the darkest days of the Balkan War, where each moment could have been his last. This isn’t a cheerful and uplifting guide to survival. There’s no misplaced optimism. There’s only Selco, the darkness he faced, and the grim reality of an SHTF scenario most of us can’t even fathom. But if you can grasp it all before it happens, you’ll be much further ahead than those who are frozen in shock. Please note that Selco's first language is not English. These stories have been lightly edited for clarity, but they still retain the "accent."


As the blurb says, this isn't light, easy reading at all:  but it's very accurate in describing how civilization can (and does) go to hell in a handbasket when things go very wrong.  I've experienced that in three nations in Africa, and therefore I can verify what Selco says from my own experience.  The misery war brings is pretty much the same all over the world, no matter where it takes place or in what language its stories are told.

I've chosen just one of the stories Selco tells in this book.  This is "Laura's Story".  WARNING:  This discusses brutal violence, rape, and a number of other very dark topics.  If any of those subjects offend or upset you, you should not read further.


“Laura” was 42 years old at the time of the event, a clerk at the local bank, two kids in school, and her husband was a driver for the city bus services.

She is now 64 and the house where we are having this conversation is small and wet. On the floor there are several pots, probably used for catching rain from roof leaks. She looks like she is sick, smoking homemade cigarettes. The smell is awful.

She looks like she has given up, like she is going to kill herself right after our conversation.

She told me her story of the war.

Do you remember the period of hyperinflation when you could buy with credit and when that check came to payment it would be worth maybe 10% of the original value, some few months before killing and chaos started?

Inflation was like a toy for some folks.

Now when I remember that I feel like an idiot because I did not realize that everything was going to shit when something like that is possible.

Women from bank, my colleagues, were bragging how they bought extra stuff that way with almost no money, I was proud because I did not do that.

You know, my father was one of the first who organized an uprising against the Germans here in the big war, a real Communist. He even went as a volunteer in Spanish civil war there, fought against Franco.

He told me a story that once he met Marshall Tito in war, at some Communist conference. It was deep in the Bosnian woods in the winter of 1943, while they were encircled by Italians and Germans.

He told me that he was not like a man, he was an idea, he was the state. The movement that you just need to follow because he knows best.

I was raised to believe in the state, in the communist system, in the ideals of the state for workers and peasants.

When the war started in Croatia, I, just like most of us, believed that somehow someone will recognize that we are all same people, Socialists and Communists, and that we just needed to stick together, and everything would be fine.

But I did not know that the Western world did not want us to have Yugoslavia. We were simply too strong for them. They wanted us to hate each other, and to pull out that old hatred between Yugoslav nations.

And then one day my husband came home earlier from work. He looked badly shaken.

He told me that his coworker was absent from work for two weeks, officially he was ill, with pneumonia.

Rumors were that he was volunteering as a fighter in Croatia. Some people believed and some did not believe.

But when he came back to work, he had golden necklaces around his neck, golden rings, and big smile on his face.

Some folks said that he was bragging around that there in Croatia if you are willing to fight there were a lot of things to plunder, money and gold, and he whispered with sick smile that if you have the will and if you wanted there were lot of “available“ women, too.

Husband said that guy was always bit weird when it came to women and alcohol, but after he returned from that “weekend fighting“ for money, he always had a sick smile on his face, like he had seen that you can get money, gold, and women in much easier ways than standing all day long in a decades-old bus and selling tickets to angry workers and confused school kids.

My husband never was a brave man. He was good man, but he liked to pull back from situations where people used fists or knives.

You could say that he was coward in some way.

After few stories he heard from that colleague, the fear installed in him for real and forever. Anyway, that forever did not last too long.

S*** moved from Croatia to our town pretty soon. One morning I realized that my coworkers who were other nationalities were missing from work.

And I realized too, that their workplaces were empty more or less. While I was talking about how we should stick together in the spirit of socialism, they were organizing how to get the hell out of town.

I still believed in life together between people of different nationalities.

And then one morning my husband came earlier from his job. He told me that people in uniforms came and confiscated the buses in the name of the “Cause” and the state. Nobody said what cause or state, but he saw that they had blood in their eyes, and nobody was willing to ask too many questions.

They told the workers that they need to go home and follow the orders of the local “crisis government.”

In that time there were already several of those crisis governments, each with their own agendas, militias, and orders. People still tried to understand which of those government represented the state.

What they did not understand was that the state was already gone. There were wars between those people too.

My husband finally beat his fear and went to the local criminals to buy a rifle. He gave almost half the money that we had saved for new car for that thing.

When he came home with the rifle, he was even more afraid.

He did not talk too much, but I understood that he was more afraid to use that rifle than to be without it.

He was a weak man. He could not help it.

Somewhere around that day when he bought the rifle, we sent our kids to my sister, some 200 km from our place.

It was the first and probably last time when my husband’s fear was used to make a good decision. I did not want to be separated from my kids, but he just kept on telling me, “Laura, you do not know what is happening, and what are people saying outside. The kids need to go away from here.”

They left town in one of the last of the Red Cross organized convoys. Their small faces were confused behind the glass. While I was waving them at the local market where the transport was organized, my husband was in our backyard trying to kill beer bottles with bullets from his rifle.

Our neighbor was trying to teach him how to operate the rifle. Rumors in town were that this neighbor had some violent history. Some even said that he was in the French Foreign Legion.

My husband was a cook during the basic training in army, and he forgot even the basic stuff that he learned in the army.

After we got word from the Red Cross that our kids got to their destination in good order, we were kind of more relaxed, but silence moved into the house.

For days we listened to the radio on our car battery. Electricity, water, and all other services were gone. We still were trying to figure who was fighting, who was defending who was liberating, and who was representing the law in our city.

And then one night we awakened to strong kicks at the door.

“Police!” they shouted. “Open the door, now!”

My husband shouted at me, “Where is the rifle?”

I did not know of course, and I still believe that he simply forgot where he put it. He was completely lost in fear.

Anyway, he opened the door. They told him that they were newly organized police and that they trying to organize law in the city.

Of course, he believed them.

They had uniforms, helmets, weapon, and authority. He simply was that kind of man. He wanted to trust.

He even remembered where he left his rifle when they asked him. And then they told him that he needed to go with them to the police station and fill out some simple paperwork because that rifle, nothing more.

I never saw him again.

I still remember how he was very calmly putting his jacket on while he was having a conversation with those guys. He had trust on his face. He was happy there was someone finally who he could trust, who would tell him what to do.

What else does a law-abiding citizen need? F***!

I never saw him again.

But I saw those people again the very next night.

They did not knock or yell this time. One of them simply crushed the doorknob with his boot.

When they entered house one of them punched me in the face right away, and he said to me just one word. “Gold?”

He kicked me with his boot few more times before the meaning of that word finally got through my brain and then he kicked me few more times before I caught my breath and strength to tell him where my gold necklaces and rings were.

You are asking me did they do anything more to me? You mean did they rape me?

Yeah, they did. Two of them raped me while the two other guys were collecting interesting stuff in my house.

I still do not remember if the other two guys raped me, or if they did not.

After the second one somehow, I kinda left my body. It was like I was floating next to the ceiling while he was on me.

I remember the words “Let’s just kill this bitch.”

Much later I realized that those words were spoken about me.

Did I want to be killed after that?

No, actually not. In that moment I felt only physical pain, but I still had the will to live. I did not want to die. Not yet.

I survived that, just like hundreds of other women in that time.

I do not remember how I lived the next month or two.

I mean I remember everything in a way: black market, famine, diseases, endless killings, side switching, rumors about peace and everything else.

But from the moment when those guys left my house, everything was blurred. I simply pushed on and on.

I learned how to treat wounded in one of the local militias, I found a man who protected me, not because he loved me or because he was a good man. It was because I was a woman.

I remember endless wounded guys screaming and in pain.

And then one day peace came, I was hearing from all sides that peace has come, and finally everything was gonna be fine.

And that was moment when I broke.

I was an old woman. My husband was dead, but actually officially he was still missing. I could not even get a pension from state because officially he was not dead. He was not founded in one of the thousand improvised graves.

He was probably killed immediately after he was taken from our house, maybe 500 meters from our house. Turned to dust or just pile of bones somewhere in someone abandoned well, or on the bottom of the river.

Where are my kids?

One is in America. She is some kind of small boss in a local fast food restaurant. Whenever I speak to her on phone, I understand her less. Each time she uses more English then our language, and each time I am happier.

Why?

I want from her to forget this country, this language. I want from her to forget me, to never come back here, I do not want her to be one day outside her body while some guy is on top of her and another searching her home for gold in the name of state.

My other kid?

Well, he is some kind of musician. Lives in Italy. I think he is homosexual.

What are my feelings about that?

I do not care, as long as he does not come back here. I do not want him to be taken from the house in the middle of the night in the name of the cause, in some future “Balkan conflict.”

Sometimes I have a dream that he might be on the other side in some future war here. What if he was one of the guys who searched for gold and valuables after he killed a woman’s husband?

And next morning when I wake from that dream, I even more want from him to hate everything that is here, country people, system, even me.

Just as long as he does not come back.

What do I do for living?

I do what I learned in that time. I care for sick folks. I have a few older people that I take care of. I wash them, clean them, take care for this disease, and similar.

It is enough for cigarettes and beer and that food that I eat.

I’ll be fine.

Do I trust in living together with harmony between different people?

Hmmm, I do not care for that. I do not give a s***.


Well, there you have it.  A family who had never prepared for the complete collapse of the society in which they lived . . . and paid the price for it.  If you think that can't happen anywhere else, even in America, you're deluded.  I've seen it happen elsewhere, and experienced for myself the consequences.  In some of our inner cities today, conditions very like those Laura describes are a daily fact of life.  I'm not joking.  They really are.

Read, and learn . . . and ask yourself:  "If this happened to my family, tomorrow, how well are we equipped and trained to survive it?"

Peter


Friday, April 12, 2024

My deepest sympathy, but...

 

... if ever there was a self-inflicted injury, this was it.


The Long Island doctor who was fatally thrown out of her family’s Airstream should never have been in the RV while it was in motion, the manufacturer says.

Dr. Monika Woroniecka, 58, was not following Airstream’s guidance when she was hurled out of the door of the moving trailer and onto State Route 12E in upstate New York around 3 p.m. Saturday, the company said.

“Airstream travel trailers are not designed to carry passengers while in motion,” the company said in a statement.

“The safety protocol detailed in Airstream’s operating manuals and shared on Airstream’s website advises owners that they cannot tow an Airstream with people inside,” the statement continued.

“Many states prohibit carrying passengers in a travel trailer or fifth wheel, and we advise owners to consult their state’s Department of Motor Vehicles for up-to-date regulations.”

It also is illegal in New York to tow passengers in a “house coach trailer” while it is hitched to a vehicle and on the road.

. . .

Woroniecka struck her head on the road median, police explained.

She was pronounced dead at Samaritan Medical Center.


There's more at the link.

I'd have thought this was absolutely basic, foundational knowledge:  don't travel in any towed vehicle, ever!  It's illegal almost everywhere I know, and almost all manufacturers of such vehicles warn against the practice as well.  Yet now the deceased's daughter is apparently trying to put at least some of the blame for the tragedy on Airstream.


“This was an accident. Pure accident, and there’s nobody to blame. This is nobody’s fault,” Helena said. 

“Sure, maybe Airstream doesn’t advise traveling inside the trailer. But we thought maybe that the last 20 minutes of an eight-hour drive on very quiet and slow country roads would be fine,” Helena said.

“And it’s perfectly legal to do so in some states.

“It was just a crazy accident,” she said.

Still, “The doors on the Airstream open the opposite way that you would expect. It doesn’t take an engineering degree to know that on any moving vehicle, whether a bus or a car or a trailer, doors should open against the wind, not towards it,” Helena told The Post.

“That seems like a significant safety oversight to me and seems like the only reason they do open that way is to protect the awning of the trailer.”


Again, more at the link.

No, young lady, this was no safety oversight, and there's no flaw in the design, because the door was never intended to be opened - from within or outside - while the trailer was in motion!  When the trailer is parked, it's an entirely safe design.

As a pastor and chaplain, I've long since lost count of the number of surviving relatives of a victim of tragedy who've tried to blame anyone and anything they can think of for their loved one's death.  It might be another driver, or a police officer or EMS vehicle that didn't respond quickly or effectively enough (in their opinion), or even the attending chaplain for not praying hard enough (yes, I've actually been accused of that!).  People appear to find it impossible to accept that "pure" accidents happen, where someone is killed solely because they happened to be at the scene at the wrong time, or nature did her sometimes terminal thing (e.g. a lightning strike, or a tree falling due to internal rot) just when someone happened to be standing there.

Life happens.  So does death.  Sometimes there's no explanation possible.  Sometimes somebody or something else is to blame.  However, there are times - such as this incident - where the explanation is simply that the victim did something foolish, and paid the price.

May God rest Dr. Woroniecka's soul, and bring what comfort there may be to those who survive her.  That's all one can say.

Peter


Wednesday, April 3, 2024

The aid convoy tragedy in Gaza

 

I daresay by now most people have heard of the Israeli destruction of a clearly marked, position-broadcasting aid convoy in Gaza, in which seven aid workers were killed.  On the face of it, it looks to be a clear violation of every "law of war" (a misnomer if ever I heard one).  A tragedy indeed.  I don't think anyone in his right mind would dispute that.

Israel is being condemned from all sides for the attack.  To cite just one commenter:


The IDF murdered seven aid workers yesterday, three of whom were British special forces veterans, in three targeted drone strikes ... This isn’t self-defense. These attacks are not even taking place in Israel. No wonder Netanyahu is whining about how the whole world now hates Israel. Because it’s rapidly becoming impossible for any sane or impartial individual to not despise what the Israeli government and the Israeli military are doing.


More of the same can be found all over the Internet.

The attack should never have taken place, and was undoubtedly wrong.  I hope those responsible for it will face justice over their actions.  However, few people are looking below the surface.  There's more to this than you'd think.

First, Hamas has for years - no, for decades - used aid organizations and convoys as cover for its own movements.  This is beyond dispute.  Even worse, many of those aid organizations and their staff are openly partisan in their position, siding with Hamas and against Israel.  Indeed, after the October terrorism atrocities against Israel, it's known that UNRWA staff and aid workers actually assisted in holding some hostages prisoner and guarding them!  Those allegations cover almost all aid organizations in Gaza, and there's more than abundant evidence to prove them.  That being the case, you might say that any aid organization there - no matter how trustworthy and neutral it may actually be - starts out, as far as Israel is concerned, under a cloud of suspicion.  It's not a case of being regarded as innocent until proven guilty.  Rather, the assumption is that it's guilty unless and until it's proven innocent - and there won't be a lot of effort from Israel to prove that organization's innocence.  They've seen it too often.

Second, after the Israeli invasion of Gaza last year, Hamas continued to deliberately use aid vehicles and convoys to move its armed forces from place to place;  to resupply them;  and to move hostages to more secure areas to prevent Israel from freeing them.  This is beyond dispute.  There's video evidence of Hamas doing all those things;  indeed, there's video evidence of Hamas launching weapons (anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, bombardment rockets, etc.) from the premises of aid organizations, hospitals, etc.  Again, Israel has become accustomed to this, and now regards such premises as automatically suspect.

I don't blame them.  In their shoes, I'd have done the same thing - and, in another part of the world where I fought in a different war, that's exactly what I did, and experience seldom proved me wrong.  The amount of foreign "humanitarian" aid we found in the possession of terrorists - sometimes feeding and supporting entire terrorist base camps - was staggering.  (Do some reading about the role of, say, Norwegian People's Aid, and see for yourself.  That's just one of many organizations that were involved, including Oxfam, the Red Cross, and other very big names in the aid field.)  The concept of "neutrality" was conspicuous by its absence among most of the aid organizations we encountered.  Israel is experiencing precisely the same thing.

That reality does not excuse the strike that killed those seven aid workers, and I'm not trying to do so here.  As I've already said, I hope those responsible face justice for their actions.  However, those actions have to be viewed against a backdrop where Israel's armed forces have learned, the hard way, that any and all aid organizations are to be considered partisan rather than neutral;  where those working for them, no matter what their nationality or motivation, are to be regarded in the same way;  and where their activities are seen as potentially hostile to Israel and/or pro-Hamas, regardless of whether or not they really are either of those things.  No amount of official guidance, or standing orders, or military restrictions, can completely overcome that pre-judgment of anything that operators on the ground, conditioned by months of intensive combat, observe during the course of their duties.  Perhaps only those who've been "seasoned" by combat conditions can understand that.  Those who've never experienced that stress probably can't.

I'm pretty sure that the operator(s) who fired and guided the missiles that killed those aid workers were convinced, in their own mind, that they'd detected Hamas members and/or sympathizers dropping off supplies (which might be food or medicines, but might also include weapons) to terrorists.  Hamas has used ambulances to do precisely that on previous occasions, and aid convoys and shipments too, so this would be nothing new.  The fact that the charity in question had informed Israel of this movement, and its vehicles were broadcasting their identity and location, makes precisely no difference where such suspicions are concerned.  The ambulances and aid vehicles Hamas had previously used to distribute supplies had been doing exactly the same thing.  In a very real sense, part of the responsibility for the deaths of those seven aid workers lies with Hamas for making such activities automatically suspicious in the eyes of the Israeli military.  If I'd been on duty that night, watching for enemy movement in my sector, I'd have presumed that too.  I'd have been pre-conditioned to do so by my enemy's own previous actions.

I think that's why those seven aid workers died.  They were in a place where it was difficult to move around safely at the best of times, and in the wartime conditions that now prevail there, it's actively dangerous.  I'm not going to say they should not have been there - that was their own choice, and I honor their courage in being willing to put their lives on the line for what they believed in - but by being there, they made the choice to put themselves in danger.  Tragically, that danger caught up with them.  It should not have done so . . . but it did.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is belligerent, defensive, not inclined to cut aid organizations and international opinion any slack.  I think there's much about him to dislike;  but, in this instance, he's correct to say bluntly that "It happens in war".  It does.  It's happened in almost any war you care to name, including wars fought by US forces, who have been in the past as guilty of targeting innocent aid workers in other countries as Israel is today in Gaza.

May those who died rest in peace.  May their sins be forgiven them, and their compassion for their fellow human beings be rewarded;  and may their families and co-workers receive what comfort they may.  May justice be done for their deaths, and may the example of their deaths help to prevent - or, at least, minimize - such tragedies in future.  Nevertheless, don't see this as a deliberate, planned massacre by Israel of aid workers.  I think it's simply the overwhelming realities "on the ground" in Gaza overriding discretion and other potential explanations.

If I'd been in those drone operators' shoes, I might have pulled the trigger myself.  In another war, on another continent, based on what I knew in that place at that time, I had to make similar snap operational decisions.  I'll never know for sure (in this life, at any rate) whether they were the right ones.

Peter


Monday, March 25, 2024

Another tragic mistake that took an innocent life

 

I've said several times before that if you're carrying a firearm in a pocket or purse, it needs to be in a holster to avoid things catching in or on the trigger, which might cause a tragedy.

Well, it just happened again.


NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WSMV) - Police said the mother of a teen daughter who was shot Saturday night reports the gun that killed her fired off accidentally ... The victim was taken to the hospital, where she died of a single gunshot wound.

Police said the teen’s mother told detectives her unholstered .40 caliber semi-automatic pistol was inside her purse and accidentally fired while she was attempting to grab her keys. Charges have not been placed.


There's more at the link.

Anti-gun activists will doubtless seek to portray this as yet another incident of "gun violence", and blame the gun - the instrument - for the girl's death.  They're entirely wrong.  The gun was not at fault.  Careless and negligent handling of the gun was at fault.

Tragically, that mother will have to remember for the rest of her life that her daughter is dead because she was careless and/or negligent.  This death was her fault, nobody else's.  I wonder how the rest of her family will handle that?

May we, at least, learn from her bad example, and not make the same mistake.

Peter


Friday, March 15, 2024

A tragic way to die

 

I was saddened to read about the cause of an aircraft crash in Switzerland last month.


In a preliminary report published on 12 March, the Swiss Transportation Safety Investigation Board (STSB) said the aircraft, belonging to Skydive Grenchen, was carrying 11 jumpers and one pilot on the afternoon of 18 February. While all jumpers, one of whom was slightly injured in the incident, exited the aircraft, the pilot died in the crash.

“When parachutists were being dropped off, the reserve parachute belonging to a parachutist who was still on the aircraft unintentionally opened,” the STSB says. “The parachutist subsequently collided with the elevator tailplane, causing it to be completely torn off the aircraft and the plane crashed.”

“The pilot was not wearing a rescue parachute,” it adds.


There's more at the link.

It sounds as if the inadvertently opened reserve parachute pulled one of the jumpers out of the plane, from where he collided with the tailplane.  Nobody could have foreseen this sort of incident, or its outcome.  I'm still trying to wrap my brain around how the impact of a human body could break off an elevator tailplane on one side of the aircraft.  One wouldn't think such an impact would be sufficient.  It would injure the person, of course, perhaps fatally, and damage the leading edge of the tailplane, but not knock it completely off the aircraft.  I'm sure the manufacturers will be investigating that as a matter of urgency.

The death of the pilot was a tragedy, of course.  The skydiving club had apparently bought the aircraft more than a decade ago, and he'd flown it for the club for years.  It just goes to show:  "in the midst of life we are in death", as the classic funeral service puts it.  We never know when or where or how we may come to our end.  That's a sobering thought . . . and it should be.

Peter


Thursday, February 1, 2024

Remembering the Lahaina wildfire victims

 

There have been all sorts of conspiracy theories circulating about the Lahaina wildfire on Hawaii last August.  I've seen claims that over four hundred people had died or were "missing", and that this was being hidden because it would reflect badly on the mismanagement of the situation by local authorities.  It was also claimed that homeowners were being forbidden access to their properties, so that they would be forced to pay mortgages in the absence of any insurance payout (which depends on assessors being allowed access to the insured property), and therefore forced to sell their burned-out land to those wanting to develop it.

It turns out those claims were overblown, to put it mildly.


Hawaii officials said Friday that they have identified the last of the 100 known victims of the wildfire that destroyed Lahaina in August.

That victim was Lydia Coloma, 70, Maui police said.

Identifying those who perished in the deadliest wildfire in the U.S. in more than a century has been a long, arduous process.

Forensic experts and cadaver dogs have had to sift through ash searching for bodies that were possibly cremated, and authorities have been collecting DNA samples from victims’ family members.

. . .

The number of those who remain unaccounted for has also fallen — to just a few from a previous high of nearly 400, according to the Maui Police Department.

The victims ranged in age from 7 to 97, but more than two-thirds were in their 60s or older, according to Maui police’s list of known victims. Several were residents of a low-income senior apartment complex.

Authorities reopened the burn zone to residents and property owners who lost homes while urging returning residents not to sift through the ashes for fear of raising toxic dust.

Authorities began clearing debris from residential lots this month.


There's more at the link.

I think many people have little or no idea of how thoroughly a wildfire can destroy a property and its contents.  I've seen it, up close and personal.  Everything flammable - including human bodies - is reduced to ash and cinders, sometimes making it impossible to recognize a cadaver by sight alone.  Many bodies will be completely hidden beneath a thin blanket of fine gray ash, which must be very carefully removed in order to reveal what's beneath it.  Move too quickly and/or too aggressively, and whatever's beneath the ash will be removed along with it, or blown away by the wind, or dissolved by rain.  There's no easy or quick way to do it - and the authorities were dealing with square miles of devastation, not just a house or two.  I'm sure they did the best they could, but in reality there's simply no way to speed up the process over that great an expanse.  That's why access to the area was restricted, because you can't look for bodies while families and insurance companies are trying to clear their properties and rebuild.

I wish conspiracy theorists were not so prevalent here in the USA.  They destroy their own credibility by their stupid, unrealistic claims, but in the process they "poison the well", so that nobody believes anybody else.  "You can't tell me I'm wrong!  Prove it!" they chant, when challenged about their false claims - but they never bother to prove their claims, putting the onus to do that on those who challenge them.  Another utterly stupid conspiracy theory doing the rounds at present is that the Taylor Swift/Travis Kelce romance is a re-election ploy by the Biden administration, an "election psy-op" being mounted with the active support of the NFL.  How anybody can actually believe such drivel is beyond me . . . it defies logic, reason and sanity.  Nevertheless, it's out there.

I have the deepest sympathy for those who lost loved ones and property in the Lahaina fire:  and even deeper sympathy for those who've had to endure such conspiracy theorizing while coming to terms with the partial or complete destruction of their families, their plans for the future . . . everything.  I wish it were possible to force the conspiracy theorists to pay a heavy monetary burden for the mental and emotional anguish they've inflicted on the survivors.  Sadly, I don't think that will happen, but in simple justice, it should.

Peter


Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Looks like we've got a new demon in the drug war...

 

I'd never heard of nitazenes, but apparently they're a growing threat to illicit drug users.  They've even made an appearance in this part of North Texas, which is way out in the sticks compared to the big cities as far as drug dealers go.  It looks bad.


While politicians and policymakers amp up calls for more brutal crackdowns on fentanyl smuggling, a “new” class of synthetic opioids has been showing up in overdose victims with the potential to make America look back on the fentanyl crisis as “the good old days.”  

Chemists refer loosely to this category of drugs as “nitazenes,” even though the term is incorrect; it should be “benzimidazole-based opioids.” The Swiss drug maker CIBA, now part of Novartis, developed the first nitazenes in the late 1950s as potential pain treatments. However, none was approved because they were too dangerously potent.  

In 2020, the World Health Organization reported that isotonitazene (which drug users call “iso” or “tony”) began appearing in forensic toxicology reports in six European countries, Canada and the United States. In 2022, the Tennessee Department of Health reported that overdose deaths from synthetic opioids classified as nitazeneshave increased fourfold in just two years. 

. . .

These drugs are not only appearing in adulterated opioids. A U.K. drug testing service determined that, since September, nitazenes have been found in 20 samples of black-market benzodiazepines (common tranquilizers such as Xanax) taken from all parts of the country.

People who purchase benzodiazepines on the black market wouldn’t expect nitazenes to be a contaminant and could become overdose victims.

. . .

News reports about the growing presence of nitazenes among the mix of street drugs should come as no surprise to anyone familiar with what has come to be known as “the iron law of prohibition.” Drug policy analysts often phrase it as, “The harder the enforcement, the harder the drugs.” 

Drug prohibition drives the creation of more potent drug forms to enhance business efficiency. Smaller drug packages simplify smuggling, enabling dealers to subdivide stronger forms into smaller portions for sale, improving their risk/benefit ratio.

The "iron law" explains the rise in THC concentration in cannabis, the shift from powdered cocaine to crack cocaine, and the progression from cracking down on black market prescription pain pills to the emergence of heroin and, subsequently, fentanyl. 


There's more at the link.

The article appears to be written from the perspective that prohibition of drugs is bad;  that the "War On Drugs" has not worked, and should therefore be reconsidered.  I can't argue with the truth of the underlying premise.  "Hard" drugs are cheaper and more easily obtained today than at any time in the past, and there doesn't seem to be any improvement in sight.  What's more, an entire "industry" has grown up around the War On Drugs, with tens of thousands of people employed and millions of dollars spent every year in a (so far) fruitless effort to stem the tide of illegal narcotics flooding our streets.

The problem with abandoning prohibition as a policy is that it does have its successes - they just aren't publicized as widely as its failures.  Without the laws making street narcotics illegal, and giving our law enforcement authorities the legal tools to crack down on them, I think the situation would be a lot worse.  On the other hand, I also have to accept that "drug money" has corrupted many law enforcement personnel and agencies, to such an extent that we're no longer surprised to find officers on trial for distributing drugs and protecting drug dealers.  Where there's almost unlimited money to be made, that works on both sides of the street.  Furthermore, too many law officers have learned to "throw their weight around", to bully the rest of us because the law provides them too much protection from the consequences of their actions.  That's as destructive to a law-abiding society as drugs themselves.

I come at the problem from the perspective of the victims.  Being a retired pastor and prison chaplain, I've seen the effects of ruined lives and destroyed families that drugs leave behind them.  I've seen the survivors of people killed while under the influence of drugs, or murdered by someone on drugs, and I know their anguish.  I don't think we dare take off what restraints there are, because if we did, those problems would be multiplied instantly and many times over.  We can't prevent them, but we can at least minimize them compared to what they'd be without anti-drug laws and actions.

What's the answer?  I have no idea.  I've heard many say that we should simply abandon Naloxone, the drug to "bring back" victims of fentanyl overdoses, and let them die, because that's the only way to solve the demand side of the "supply and demand" equation.  Unfortunately, that won't stop the problem, because dealers and pushers will continue to distribute their product, and pressure or tempt people into trying it (the drug-dealer advertising stickers saying "First fix is free!" aren't a joke;  they're real - I've seen them in more than one inner-city area).  There are also those who say that mandatory execution for drug dealers would fix it, but it hasn't in the past.  Where there's a demand, and there's money to be made from it, somebody will fill that demand.  If it's costly or dangerous to do so, they'll simply raise their price until it's worth it to them to take that risk.

I wish I could see a way forward.  The only thing I can realistically, practically counsel is to avoid using such drugs ourselves, and see to it that our kids are protected from their temptation until such time that they're mature enough to understand the dangers.  Yes, that may mean taking them out of the school system altogether and home-schooling them.  That's part of the price we pay for allowing things to get this bad over time.

Peter


Thursday, January 18, 2024

The saddest news I've heard in a long time

 

If this report doesn't bring tears to your eyes, I don't know what will.


A 2-year-old English boy was found starved to death next to the body of his father, who had suffered a fatal heart attack two weeks earlier.

Little Bronson Battersby was found dead curled up next to his 60-year-old father, Kenneth, at their home in Skegness, Lincolnshire, on Jan. 9 — 14 days after they were last seen by family over the holidays.

The pair were last seen alive on Dec. 26 — not long before Kenneth suffered a fatal heart attack, ultimately leaving his son alone with no one to care for him.

. . .

The social worker visited their home on Jan. 2 after failing to make contact with the father on Dec. 27. She returned to the house two days later but was still unable to reach Kenneth.

The social worker contacted the cops after each visit but was only able to enter the home after getting a key from the landlord days later, their family told the outlet.

Authorities in Lincolnshire have since launched a review into the child’s death.

. . .

“It breaks my heart. Bronson deserved so, so much better. He was such a loving, adorable little boy. They found him curled up at Kenneth’s legs,” the friend said. “He was left in the dark and must have been terrified and so confused.”

The boy’s father was unemployed and had a heart condition that led him to become severely jaundiced in the months leading up to his death.


There's more at the link.

Please join me in praying for the souls of that young boy and his father.  For both of them, it was a horrible way to die.  As for the surviving family, may they receive what comfort is possible.  I'm sure, under the circumstances, there isn't much.

Please also let this be a reminder to us all:  if your health is permanently impaired, and/or if you have others dependent on you for care who would suffer if you weren't able to look after them, please, please make sure someone is checking on you regularly (at least daily), and able to get into your home to provide help if anything looks wrong.  Bronson might still be alive today if that had been done.

I realize that warning applies to me as well.  Both my wife and myself suffer from long-term debilitating health problems, and I've had two heart attacks.  I'm living on borrowed time, to put it bluntly;  a third heart attack is more likely than not to finish me off, unless it can be detected and treated very early in proceedings.  That means I need to make sure my wife will be OK if I'm not around when she needs me.  I'll be checking in with a couple of close friends over the next few days, to tell them about this incident and ask them to add me to their "Call him if he doesn't get in touch for a day or two" list.

Food for thought . . . and prayer.

Peter


Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Was the carnage of October 7th due to a colossal failure of Israeli intelligence?

 

The Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on October 7th have led to all sorts of soul-searching and drama within Israel.  How could they have happened without being detected?  Why was the initial response so limited, and why were so many innocent people murdered, raped and tortured almost without opposition until Israeli forces could mobilize and respond?  Were many of the victims actually killed by Israeli counterfire, particularly missiles launched by helicopters, rather than Hamas terrorists?  All these questions are swirling around in the ether, and there are few authoritative answers to be had.

Nevertheless, one thing almost everyone is agreed upon is that Israeli intelligence should have foreseen and warned about preparations for these attacks - but failed to do so.  Jewish News Service pins the blame on Israel Defense Forces Intelligence Directorate Chief Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva.  I don't know whether its claims about him are true or false, but if true (and that's a big "if" - see below), they paint a bleak picture.


In the weeks since Oct. 7, more and more information has come out about why Hamas was able to pull it off. All of the information points to Haliva and his close subordinates.

The Field Observers unit at Nahal Oz base suffered the greatest losses there during Hamas’s assault. The unit, comprising female soldiers, is responsible for monitoring the footage from security cameras along the Gaza border around the clock and alerting forces on the ground and in the intelligence community to anything suspicious ... the two surviving members of the unit and a number of former members started coming forward to tell their story. In interviews with Channel 11, two women related that in the months before the invasion, they were warning it was in the works. The women saw Hamas terrorists training to take over kibbutzim and IDF bases. They watched terrorists practicing taking hostages and blowing up tanks. They saw terror commanders watching the drills. They saw spies probing the fence for weaknesses. They saw it all and reported it all. 

Rather than giving them medals, unnamed top-level officers in the intelligence corps ordered them to stop. When they continued reporting, the observers were warned that they would be disciplined and removed from the unit if they kept raising their concerns.

. . .

The observers weren’t the only ones silenced. Rafael Hayun, a civilian hacker who monitors open intelligence networks, worked for the IDF for years. The IDF provided Hayun with equipment to monitor Hamas’s internal communications. In late 2019, Hayun began reporting on Hamas training exercises involving invading Israel, penetrating the security fence at multiple points, taking over communities, committing mass murder and kidnapping. Over time, the training became more intense and detailed. Hayun alerted the units he was working with about Hamas’s activities in real time.

Five months before the assault, his colleagues in the IDF were ordered to seize all of his equipment and stop working with him. Around the same time, the IDF’s Intelligence Directorate Unit 8200 signals intelligence unit also stopped monitoring Hamas’s communications.

. . .

In a series of three, increasingly detailed and urgent reports over succeeding months, [an] NCO set out in granular detail how Hamas was preparing a broad invasion of Israel that included the invasion of IDF bases, border towns and kibbutzim. Her reports included all aspects of the invasion that took place on Oct. 7, including Hamas’s use of paragliders, pick-up trucks and motorcycles. She detailed Hamas’s plans to massacre and kidnap civilians and soldiers. She warned that their intention was to use provocations along the security fence in the weeks leading up to the operation to get the IDF used to breaches and so lull its commanders into complacency. She even secured Hamas’s own training manual for the operation. She was able to get the information in front of Unit 8200’s commander and a top officer in the Southern Command. They apparently did nothing.

Convinced by his subordinate’s reporting, her commander, an NCO with 30 years’ experience, canceled a family vacation because he heard Haliva would be visiting their base. He waylaid Haliva, and he and his subordinate presented her reports. Haliva dismissed their warnings and detailed information as hot air. Hamas, he insisted, was just pretending, to make an impression on its followers. He did not communicate her report to either the head of Israel Security Agency (Shin Bet) or the IDF Chief of General Staff.

. . .

Since at least 2022, Haliva and his colleagues in the Intelligence Directorate and the top echelons of the IDF and the Shin Bet were convinced that Hamas was deterred. Hamas, they insisted both in public statements and in intelligence briefings to political leaders, was interested in providing economic prosperity to Gaza. In one speech, Haliva spoke derisively of an unnamed political leader (between the lines it was apparent he was referring to Netanyahu) who had questioned his judgment.

. . .

What Haliva failed to mention was his habit of ignoring everything the professionals told him and not sharing their information with his superiors. 

All of this would be bad enough. But it becomes even worse when seen in the framework of the 10-month insurgency the Israeli left waged against the Netanyahu government. That insurgency was led by Haliva’s family.


There's more at the link.

Sounds damning, doesn't it?  Unfortunately, given the heated nature of Israeli politics over the past few years, and the feverish war mentality that's (understandably) prevailed there since October 7th, one can't just take such reports at face value.  Where is the evidence for its claims?  I haven't seen any authoritative documentation of them yet.  Is the blame attached to Major-General Haliva motivated by opposition to his political views?  Is this report an attempt by pro-Netanyahu sources to discredit his opponents and deflect blame from him?  Right now, it's almost impossible to say.  It'll be months, if not years, before all the facts are known - and we may never know all of them, because I'm sure there will be those who want to cover up as much of the blame as possible.

We just don't know.  All we can say is that, if the events described in this report are true, heads need to roll - and possibly not just figuratively, either.  Anyone who ignored such reports is directly implicated in the consequences of that decision, and the blood of those murdered, tortured and raped on October 7th is on his or her hands.  Punishment needs to follow.

There are more questions.  If Hamas was so blatant, so open, in its preparations for the attack, why did no other major intelligence agency (here's looking at you, CIA) see what was coming and warn of it?  Why did United Nations personnel working in Gaza not report it up the line, so that their superiors were aware of it - and if they were aware of it, why was no warning published?  Is this yet another example of UN collaboration with those whose politics they support, while working against the interests of those the organization opposes?  If so, why should the UN ever again be permitted to operate in such areas?

Peter