Showing posts with label Disaster. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Disaster. Show all posts

Saturday, July 13, 2024

Saturday Snippet: The day the Mississippi ran backwards

 

As mentioned in a blog post a couple of weeks ago, I've been reading about the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812.  Among other sources, I found "When the Mississippi Ran Backwards: Empire, Intrigue, Murder, and the New Madrid Earthquakes".



It's a long (sometimes over-long) but very interesting account of the earthquakes, based upon survivors' reports and post-earthquake investigations.  I'm still busy with it, and finding it very informative.

For today's Snippet, I thought I'd pick a chapter describing the Mississippi River itself during and immediately after the earthquake.  Remember that at this period in history, steamboats had not yet become commonplace, so many living near the river had never seen them or even heard of them - hence their reactions to this strange critter of the waters.


ABOUT 125 miles northeast of Rocky Hill, the steamboat New Orleans was resting quietly on the evening of December 15 [1811]. Apart from not having been able to recruit any investors for the Ohio Steamboat Navigation Company, the voyage of the New Orleans was going as well as Nicholas Roosevelt could have hoped. The boat had performed admirably at the Falls, and she was on a reasonably timely schedule. And now Roosevelt was the proud father of a son.

 Like everybody else within a three-hundred-mile radius of New Madrid, those aboard the steamboat were awakened by the 2:15 a.m. shock. With the shakes continuing throughout the night, they passed the rest of the anxious time without sleep. Yet they may have been the most fortunate of everyone in the area—because of the size and stability of their boat, the water was safer than land.

As soon as it was light enough to travel, the New Orleans was able to get under way. Moving downstream, the vibrations and noise of the engine kept the people on board from feeling the impact of the ongoing shocks, including the powerful aftershock that morning. But the Roosevelts’ Newfoundland dog, Tiger, felt the tremors and alternated between whining and growling as he prowled around the deck, and laying his head softly in Lydia Roosevelt’s lap, which indicated to the humans that “it was a sure sign of a commotion of more than usual violence.”

Insulated from the quake’s effect by this awesome new vehicle of a dawning age, those aboard the steamboat calmly ate their breakfast, but as the New Orleans continued downriver, signs of the quakes became more readily apparent. The passengers saw trees swaying as if in a high gale although, in fact, there was no wind blowing. They watched as an enormous section of riverbank suddenly tore away and dropped into the river. As the boat grew closer to the epicenter, it was lifted by quake-induced waves, and many on board the New Orleans were struck with seasickness.

The boat’s pilot, Andrew Jack, who was on intimate terms with the river, found the channel altered to the point where he was forced to concede he was lost. New hazards lay everywhere, and heretofore reliably deep water was now filled with uprooted trees. Without the familiar channel, Jack chose to stay in the middle of the river and hope for the best. It slowed him down, but it was a much safer way to proceed.

As the big boat passed the small settlements along the lower Ohio, the evidence mounted. Henderson, Highland Creek, Shawnee Town, and Cash Creek all showed earthquake damage. All along the route, banks were caved in and trees were down, and the shapes of familiar islands were changed.

The following night, the New Orleans put up about six miles above the junction of the Ohio and Mississippi, and not more than twenty-five miles from the Rocky Hill plantation. Not long after the crew and passengers had retired, there were urgent cries for help from the forward cabin. Assuming an Indian attack, Roosevelt jumped out of bed. He quickly grabbed the ceremonial sword from the outfit he wore for official receptions, and flew out the door of the family’s sleeping quarters.

Reaching the forward cabin, Roosevelt found not Indians but flames. Roosevelt’s mind jumped to the worst conclusion—an engine explosion, the most dreaded hazard on steamboats. But as he glanced around the room, he saw the real cause. In anticipation of the following day’s needs, the crewman who had been assigned to tend the fire had stacked up a pile of green wood near the heating stove to dry it out. Exhausted by the stress of the past two days’ events, the man had fallen asleep, and the wood caught fire. The flames quickly jumped to the finely crafted wood of the cabin walls, and suddenly the whole boat was imperiled. Roosevelt regained his wits and took command, urgently barking out orders. With Roosevelt encouraging his men all the while, the blaze was soon extinguished, but not before the exquisite paneling of the forward cabin was all but destroyed.

The following day, when the New Orleans reached the confluence of the two rivers, the water level in the big river was unusually high and the current had slackened, an unmistakable indication of flooding. When the big boat arrived at New Madrid that afternoon they found the place in a shambles. The entire town had dropped fifteen feet, down to the level of the Mississippi. A huge chunk of the riverfront, including the city cemetery, was gone, carried away by the river. Many chimneys and fences were down; others fell before their eyes. Houses were damaged. What had been a large plain behind the town was now a lake. The earth’s surface was rent by hundred-foot-long chasms. People and animals wandered about in a state of somnambulance.

As the huge boat approached, many of the townspeople fled in terror. The braver among the inhabitants, however, hailed the boat and begged to be taken aboard. Their frantic pleas for help threw Roosevelt into a quandary. There were far more people wanting to board the New Orleans than the boat’s store of provisions could possibly accommodate. Moreover, these refugees had no place to go, and when they were put ashore at Natchez or New Orleans, they would have no means of support.

The Roosevelts looked at the heartrending scene, and despite their instinct to take the refugees aboard, they knew they had no choice. Sadly, “there was no choice but to turn a deaf ear to the cries of the terrified inhabitants of the doomed town.”

* * * * *

As bad as the damage was on land, conditions were worse on the river. The New Orleans had been protected by her weight and size. The rest of the boats on the Mississippi were tossed about like toys in a bathtub.

 Firmin La Roche, a sailor by trade, was the captain of a small fleet of three boats transporting furs from St. Louis to New Orleans in December 1811. (After the Battle of Tippecanoe, riverboats increasingly tended to travel in groups as protection against Indian attack.) There were eleven other men on the three boats; on La Roche’s vessel were a crewhand named Henry Lamel, a slave named Ben, and Fr. Joseph, a French priest who had been a missionary among the Osage and was now returning to France. The convoy left St. Louis on December 8 but twice in the first week was delayed en route for repairs.

On the evening of December 15, the convoy tied up about eight miles north of New Madrid, at a landing near the home of La Roche’s cousin, John Le Clerq. The boatmen ate supper and retired for the night.

At about 2:15 a.m., La Roche was jolted awake by a thunderous crash that turned the boat on its side. Lamel, sleeping in the next bed, was flung on top of La Roche, and the two men landed hard against the side of the boat.

La Roche, Lamel, Ben, and Fr. Joseph scrambled to the deck to see what had happened. The impenetrable darkness was filled only with sounds—an unidentifiable crashing and grinding, and booming explosions and ominous rumblings emanating from the depths of the earth. For almost an hour, they had no reference point until, at around 3:00 a.m., the haze cleared enough for La Roche to see thousands of trees crashing down and huge sections of shoreline tumbling into the river.

With the boat pitching and rolling, Lamel managed to cut the rope that was tied to a log near the bank. The boat had just begun to float away from shore when it was lifted by a monstrous rush of water from downstream. “So great a wave came up the river,” wrote La Roche, “that I never have seen one like it at sea.”

The four men grabbed on to whatever part of the boat they could and held on for dear life. Trying to row or steer was futile—not capsizing or being thrown overboard was the best they could hope for as they were swept along by the gigantic wave. The river rose to as high as thirty feet above its normal level, and the boat was carried upriver, toward St. Louis, for more than a mile. The mighty Mississippi was running backwards!

The angry river was surging and roiling. John Weisman, a flatboat pilot who was transporting Kentucky whiskey, reported that “if my flatboat boat load of whiskey had sprung a leak and made the ‘Father of Waters’ drunk it could not have committed more somersaults. It seemed that old Vesuvius himself was drunk.” Vessels were tossed about so violently that experienced boatmen had trouble staying on their feet.

Sandbars and the points of islands dissolved into the furious waters, taking countless numbers of trees down with them, thereby creating new hazards for already beleaguered riverboat pilots. Great quantities of long-submerged trees were also dislodged from the river bottom, freed from the depths “to become merciless enemies of navigation,” as one later report so aptly phrased it.

One man whose boat was wrecked on a planter climbed onto its trunk as his vessel went down. Grateful at least for his life having been spared, he soon realized to his dismay that the snag was slipping down into the raging river. Over the course of the next few hours, he desperately clung to the trunk, calling for help as several boats passed by. Finally, a skiff managed to row a short distance upstream of the man and float down alongside the planter. As it passed under him, the exhausted fellow let go of the trunk and tumbled into the boat.

Neither of Firmin La Roche’s other two boats was in sight; one vessel and its crew would never be seen again. “Everywhere there was noise like thunder,” wrote La Roche, “and the ground was shaking the trees down, and the air was thick with something like smoke. There was much lightning … I do not know how long this went on, for we were all in great terror, expecting death.” La Roche, Lamel, and Ben knelt and received absolution from Fr. Joseph.

Finally, the great wave began to subside, and the river gradually resumed its normal direction. Near New Madrid, several boats that had been carried up a small stream just above the town were left high and dry, several miles from the river.

As La Roche’s boat was carried back downstream, the sky began to lighten. On the Kentucky side of the river the boatmen saw two houses burning. When they reached New Madrid, there were several more buildings in flames, and a crowd of about twenty terror-stricken people crowded together on the high bank, crying out and cringing in fear. The crewmen tied up to the shore, but before anyone could disembark, a nearby hickory tree suddenly cracked and came crashing down on the boat. A branch whipped into La Roche’s left arm, splintering the humerus like a toothpick. Ben was pinned beneath the tree trunk. The others rushed to his aid, but when they managed, with some difficulty, to pull his body out, it was limp. Ben was dead.

The tree had also damaged the boat, which began taking on water. Thinking they would be drowned, the men frantically climbed onto the shore, dragging Ben’s lifeless body with them. When the people on land saw a priest among the group, they all knelt, and Fr. Joseph gave them absolution as well.

La Roche’s boat did not sink, however, and the townspeople loudly urged the boatmen to return to their craft, believing they would be safer on the water. Having already experienced several terrifying hours on the river, however, the crew were of the exact opposite opinion, and they chose to stay on land. They hurriedly dug a shallow grave and buried Ben.

All the while, the shocks continued, accompanied by constant sounds issuing from the earth. As soon as it was light enough, the crew set about repairing the boat. When it was mended to the extent that they could continue, the people onshore began crowding on board and dumping the cargo of furs into the river in order to lighten the load. (La Roche later estimated his losses at $600.) Finally, when no more souls could safely fit aboard, they pushed off. Unfortunately, the boat leaked badly, and the overloaded vessel was in danger of sinking. Lamel bailed furiously, but finally La Roche insisted that the passengers be deposited back onshore.

As they made their way toward New Orleans, the boatmen saw evidence of earthquake damage for 250 miles south of New Madrid. Concerning the loss of life, Fr. Joseph wrote, “We made no effort to find out how many people had been killed, although it was told us that many were. We saw the dead bodies of several and afterwards drowned persons we saw floating in the river.”

* * * * *

Earthquakes in themselves do not usually kill people. People are killed by the secondary phenomena associated with earthquakes, which include tsunamis, landslides, fires, falling structures, soil liquefaction, and land fissures.

Fires are one of the greatest hazards in an earthquake. In modern quakes they can be caused by exposed electrical wires or broken gas lines. For example, in the 1906 San Francisco quake, for which death toll estimates range from seven hundred to three thousand people, the greatest number of casualties was caused by the resulting fire that swept through the city. In the New Madrid quakes, the burning buildings witnessed by La Roche were a result of candles or overturned woodstoves that still held embers of the previous evening’s fire.

The wave that carried La Roche and his crew upriver and created the impression that the river had reversed its flow was another deadly secondary effect. It was similar in cause and result to a tsunami. Two factors most likely were responsible. First, a large piece of land somewhere near Little Prairie was thrust up and temporarily dammed the river—quite possibly the “great loaf of bread” recorded by Michael Braunm, who observed that after the “loaf” burst, the river was running retrograde. When the water upstream, pushed along by the current, hit the wall of land, it had no place to go but back in the direction from which it had come, causing a huge wave, just as deformation of the ocean floor during an earthquake at sea displaces vast quantities of water that can result in a tsunami. In addition, enormous sections of riverbank were caving in all around—a Captain John Davis recorded seeing “30 or 40 acres” fall—and when they did, they displaced huge volumes of water, adding to the size of the wave. When the land that had dammed up the river began to erode away, which happened relatively quickly because of its soft character, the current once again flowed naturally.

* * * * *

John Bradbury, a Scottish naturalist engaged in an extensive collection of North American plant specimens, was on a boat about a hundred miles south of New Madrid when the first quake hit. He had been entrusted by a friend with delivering a cargo of a ton and a half of lead from St. Louis to New Orleans; on board with him were a passenger named John Bridge and a crew of five French Creoles, including M. Morin, the boatmaster or patron. On the night of December 15, the boat was tied up to a sloping bank on a small island near the second Chickasaw Bluff, near present-day Memphis, about five hundred yards above a shallow stretch of river so treacherous that it was known as the Devil’s Channel or the Devil’s Race Ground. Through this channel, the river rushed so ferociously that the roar of the water could be heard for miles. With the sun already having set, Bradbury determined that the channel was too dangerous to attempt and decided to wait until morning.

When the quake hit, Bradbury and the others were awakened by the noise and “so violent an agitation of the boat that it appeared in danger of upsetting.” They rushed onto the deck. The caving banks had caused such a swell in the river that the boat nearly capsized and sank.

Morin, the patron, was beside himself with fear. “O mon Dieu!” he cried, continuing in French, “We are going to die!” Bradbury tried to calm him, but Morin ran off the boat crying, “Get onto land! Get onto land!” The deckhands followed him onto the island.

Bradbury decided to go ashore as well. As he was preparing to leave the boat, another shock was unleashed. When Bradbury reached the island, he found a frighteningly large fissure. With his candle, he walked the length of the fissure and concluded that it was at least eighty yards long; at either end, the perpendicular banks had crumbled into the Mississippi. With a shudder he realized that had his boat been moored to a perpendicular bank rather than a sloping one, he and his companions would have been goners.

As the sky lightened, the horrors began to emerge. “The river was covered with foam and drift timber, and had risen considerably.” As Bradbury and his party waited for enough light to embark, a pair of empty canoes came drifting downstream on the faster-than-normal current. These canoes were of the type towed by boats and used for getting ashore and boarding other vessels, and Bradbury took it as “a melancholy proof” that some of the boats they had passed the previous day had perished along with their crews.

The shocks continued; while on the island, Bradbury counted twenty-seven more by dawn. At daybreak, he gave the order to embark, and everyone returned to the boat. Two of the deckhands were loosening the ropes when yet another powerful shock hit. In terror, the two men ran up onto dry land, but before they could get across the fissure that had opened in the night, a tree came smashing down to block their way. The bank of the island was rapidly disappearing into the river. Bradbury called out to loosen the ropes, and the two hands ran back to the boat.

Now they were once again on the river, but as the boat approached the Devil’s Race Ground, Bradbury saw that the channel was chocked with trees and driftwood that had floated down during the night. The passage appeared blocked. Equally distressing, Morin and his crew appeared to be in such a state of panic that Bradbury concluded they were incapable of getting the boat safely through the channel.

Bradbury thought it prudent to stop once more to give the men time to get their emotions under control. Spying an island with a gently sloping bank, the boat moored again, and the crew began preparing breakfast. Bradbury and Morin went ashore to get a close look at the channel and determine where the safest passage might be. As they stood and talked, the 7:15 aftershock arrived, nearly knocking them off their feet. Another tremor hit while they ate breakfast, and as they prepared to reboard the boat, there was still another, which nearly pitched John Bridge into the river, as the sand suddenly gave way beneath him.

Before giving the order to push off, Bradbury noticed that the deckhands were still in a state of fearful paralysis, so he proposed to Morin that the patron give each of them a glass of whiskey to bolster their courage. After they had drunk up, Bradbury gave them a spirited pep talk, reminding them that their safety and the safety of the boat depended on their efforts.

Finally, the boat untied and was once again on the water. Their confidence buoyed by the whiskey and Bradbury’s exhortations, Morin and the hands successfully threaded the boat through the perilous channel, making several instantaneous changes in their course in order to avoid disaster. When they had passed the danger, the men threw down their oars and crossed themselves, then gave a loud cheer and congratulated one another on having come through the Devil’s Race Ground in one piece.

Bradbury’s summing up of the total effect of the December 16 quakes was that they “produced an idea that all nature was in a state of dissolution.”

* * * * *

The crews of countless boats either drowned or abandoned their crafts to take their chances on land. The misfortunes of these men proved a source of salvation for the residents of New Madrid. In the days following December 16, the river deposited manna at their shores, as boat after unmanned boat floated down into the New Madrid harbor, bringing a bounty of meat, flour, cheese, butter, and apples. The town was still a disaster zone, but at least the people had enough to eat.

The shaking went on—as Jared Brooks wrote on December 16, “it is doubtful if the earth is at rest from these troubles 10 minutes during the day and succeeding night”—persisting throughout the course of the following days. Three days later, Stephen F. Austin—later known as “The Father of Texas”—landed at New Madrid and recorded his impressions. “The Philanthropic emotions of the soul are never more powerfully exercised,” he wrote, “than when called on [to] witness some great and general calamity … throwing a hitherto fertile country into dessolation and plunging such of the unfortunate wretches who survive the ruin, into Misery and dispair.”

“These emotions I experianced when on landing at N. Madrid the effects by the Earthquake were so prominently visible as well in the sunken and shattered situation of the Houses, as in the countenance of the few who remained to mourn over the ruins of their prosperity and past happiness.”

Several days afterwards, the camp of Little Prairie refugees received word that New Madrid had survived and that food was available there. Led by George Ruddell, the two hundred Little Prairie survivors immediately set out on a three-day march and reached New Madrid on Christmas Eve.

* * * * *

As the New Orleans chugged its way down the hazard-choked river, keeping to the middle as much as possible, those on board continued to witness the aftermath of the earthquake’s wrath. Earlier in the voyage, the steamboat had always made fast to the shore at night, but with so many sections of riverbank caving in without warning, that was no longer possible. Instead, pilot Andrew Jack now anchored to any of the larger islands that dotted the river.

One night soon after passing New Madrid, with the shakes continuing, the steamboat put up on the downstream side of one such island, identified by Zadok Cramer in The Navigator as Island 32 (the islands were numbered consecutively, beginning at the mouth of the Ohio), about fifty miles below Little Prairie. In the night, the passengers were awakened by the sounds of scraping and banging against the sides of the boat. Several times, the vessel was shaken by severe blows. Conferring with Jack, Roosevelt concluded that the sounds and jolts, which would continue all through the night, were caused by driftwood that was being swept downriver. They passed the word to the other passengers and then returned to bed.

When the people of the New Orleans got out on deck the next morning, they were stunned. They were no longer anchored to the island—it appeared that the steamboat had slipped anchor and floated downriver all night.

But Pilot Jack, with his encyclopedic knowledge of the river, looked around and pointed out to the others the landmarks that showed they were in the same spot at which they had dropped anchor the previous day. The boat had not moved at all—instead, the island had broken up in the night and been carried away by the current! The sounds and jolts they had heard and felt throughout the night were caused by pieces of the disintegrating island floating up against the boat.

Island 32 was not the only one to disintegrate. Island 94, known as Stack Island or Crow’s Nest Island, about 450 miles below New Madrid and 175 miles above Natchez, also disappeared.

A tale published in the St. Louis Globe-Democrat in 1902 purported to tell the story of “The Last Night of Island Ninety-Four.” According to this account, on the evening of December 15, a Captain Sarpy was en route from St. Louis to New Orleans in his keelboat, the Belle Heloise, with his wife and daughter and a large sum of money. At nightfall, the keelboat tied up at Island 94. This island had been a long-standing lair for river denizens of every stripe, including Samuel Mason, the notorious river pirate who had been apprehended in Little Prairie a decade earlier, only to escape while being transported on the river. Two years before Sarpy’s trip, however, a force of 150 keelboatmen had invaded the island and cleaned out the den of thieves, after which the island became a safe haven, and now, Sarpy thought to use the island’s abandoned blockhouse to lodge his family and crew for the night.

As Sarpy and two of his men explored the island, however, they overheard talking in the blockhouse and, peering in the windows, listened as a group of fifteen river pirates discussed plans to fall upon the Belle Heloise the following morning. Sarpy and his crewmen hurried back to the boat and quietly pushed off, tying up at a hidden place in the willows on the west bank about a mile below Island 94.

The following morning, after weathering a night of earthquakes, Sarpy looked upstream to see that Island 94 had disintegrated—the entire landmass was gone, and presumably, its criminal inhabitants along with it.

Whether or not the story is true, Island 94 did indeed disappear.


That must have been an amazing and very frightening experience for all concerned, particularly because the science of that day was not sufficiently far advanced for the ordinary person to understand what was happening.  It must have felt to many like Divine vengeance was being visited upon them for their sins.

If an identical earthquake were to happen in that area again today, with its vastly greater population and much more developed infrastructure, I shudder to think how many would be killed.  It would probably be the single biggest natural disaster to strike the USA since the Declaration of Independence.

Peter


Wednesday, May 22, 2024

A few disaster recovery considerations coming out of Houston, TX

 

I'm sure most of my readers are aware of the storm that hit the Houston, Texas area last week.  Power transmission pylons crumpled as if they were so much tinfoil, and hundreds of thousands of people are still without electricity.  Floods have complicated travel over much of the region, and haven't drained off yet.  Spare a thought and a prayer for those affected.

Talking to friends in that area, I've been struck by the additional problems being experienced by people with breathing difficulties - asthma, COPD or the like.  I'm hearing reports that those conditions are being aggravated by the humidity down there, which is about as high as it gets in the continental USA (and still is not at its full summer height).  I'm told some patients have had to be admitted to hospital for breathing assistance, while others who rely on electrically powered technology like HEPA filters and CPAP machines are finding it very difficult to cope without them.  Many are using generators, but after several days are running short of fuel for them - and fuel isn't yet reaching local gas stations in the quantities required.  My comments in earlier posts about emergency preparations, suggesting that we add gasoline to our supplies, are confirmed, I guess.

Of interest is that small camping-style "power stations" with solar panels for recharging are proving very effective indeed, more so than I would have believed.  I expected whole-house backup solutions with high-capacity power stations would work well, but I thought the smaller versions wouldn't provide enough power to be useful for long-term outages.  Turns out that's a matter of quantity.  Because the small power stations are relatively low-cost, some people have three or four of them, plus one or two solar panels for recharging.  They can use one to power a HEPA filter, another for a CPAP device, and have one or two in reserve, either being recharged from solar power or standing by ready to replace one already in use.  That's good to know, and good for our budget as well.  There are some real bargains in smaller power stations right now (see, for example, at the time of writing, this 1400W Ecoflow DELTA mini for $549, or this 800W Bluetti EB70S for $399), if you need one.  The larger units, putting out thousands of watts, are also getting cheaper over time;  for a whole house backup or the ability to run fridges and freezers, washing machines, air conditioners, etc. is important, they're still a lot more expensive than generators, but don't need fuel and are whisper-quiet.  Those can be real game-changers, particularly for longer power outages.

A darker side to the power outages in the greater Houston area is that I'm hearing about prowlers, sometimes gangs of them, making their way through darkened neighborhoods, looking for what they can steal.  Assaults have been reported, and attempts to steal generators (because houses using them can be easily identified by the lights, exhaust fumes, etc.)  I'm informed that local cops are, in some cases, tackling the bigger problems around them and ignoring cases where home-owners defend their families and property.  This is Texas, after all, and people are generally pretty self-reliant.  As long as there are no bodies untidily littering the landscape, attracting unwanted attention, there's no harm and no foul.

Part of that security problem, of course, is the lack of working security systems and external lights.  A lot of people rely on burglar alarms, break-in detectors, security lights outside their home, and so on.  None of them work in the absence of power.  I understand some homes that stood out in times past thanks to their security systems (after all, why invest in such systems unless you have something valuable to protect?) have been targeted by gangs after the power went out.  One hopes they had good manual backup defensive and protective systems.  (Again, this is Texas, so that's not unlikely.  I'd hate to estimate how long gang-bangers would last on my street if they tried anything.  I daresay they'd be dealt with in a very short time.  Neighbors here look out for each other.)

Anyway, things are slowly getting back to normal in the Houston area.  Let's hope they have a respite this hurricane season, so they don't have to do it all over again a few months from now.

Peter


Friday, May 17, 2024

It doesn't help to ignore reality. Sooner or later, it'll catch up with you.

 

Remember the collapse of the Surfside condo complex in Miami, Florida, almost three years ago?


On June 24, 2021, at approximately 1:22 a.m. EDT, Champlain Towers South, a 12-story beachfront condominium in the Miami suburb of Surfside, Florida, United States, partially collapsed, causing the deaths of 98 people. Four people were rescued from the rubble, but one died of injuries shortly after arriving at the hospital. Eleven others were injured. Approximately thirty-five were rescued the same day from the un-collapsed portion of the building, which was demolished ten days later.

A contributing factor under investigation is long-term degradation of reinforced concrete structural support in the basement-level parking garage under the pool deck, due to water penetration and corrosion of the reinforcing steel. The problems had been reported in 2018 and noted as "much worse" in April 2021. A $15 million program of remedial works had been approved before the collapse, but the main structural work had not started.


There's more at the link.

The full impact of that tragedy is only now becoming evident in condo complexes up and down the Florida coast.  The same neglect that led to the Surfside collapse has been found in literally hundreds of other buildings, and the repair bills are colossal - so much so that owners can't afford them.


Have a Florida condo? Can you afford a $100,000 or higher special assessment for new safety standards?

After the collapse of a Surfside Building on June 24, 2021that killed 98 people, the state passed a structural safety law that is now biting owners.

Not only are insurance rates soaring, but owners are hit with huge special assessments topping $100,000.

. . .

Those who cannot sell and don’t have the special assessment, will be evicted and their units seized for whatever the Associations can get for them.

South Florida listings have doubled in the past year to over 18,000. Few of those units will sell, and those that do sell will be at a huge haircut.


Again, more at the link.

The structural safety law is entirely necessary from any rational perspective.  Unfortunately, many of those who bought condos in Florida - some of them decades ago, when prices were far lower - are now on the hook to pay for those repairs.  Some can afford it, but others have had no choice but to try to sell their now almost valueless condos to buyers who aren't prepared to pay for the sins or omissions of the past.  Many of them are now facing bankruptcy and possible homelessness.

What I find most infuriating is that the condo associations should have carried out normal preventive maintenance over the years;  should have had their buildings inspected regularly to detect problems before they got out of control;  and should have set aside adequate financial reserves to pay to repair them.  That's nothing more than basic common sense:  but it seems few did so.  The condo owners didn't want the trouble or expense involved.  To make matters worse, many of them now affected by the problem are trying to weasel their way out of it any way they can - despite the consequences of doing so being so starkly visible to everyone concerned.


State law previously allowed condos to waive reserve funding year after year, leading many buildings ... to keep next to nothing in their coffers.

. . .

Residents still meet ... to celebrate birthdays. But now, those gatherings are often charged with owners pooling documentation in hope of finding evidence that the assessments should be lower.

Some are worried developers may already be purchasing condos in the building for a potential takeover, where a developer tries to gain control of a building to knock it down and build a newer, more luxurious one. These condo terminations are happening up and down the state’s coastline. While the rules can vary by building, if enough people vote to sell their units, the others have to follow along.


More at the link.

One can't blame the developers.  If a unit's value has plummeted thanks to the cost of repairs, of course those with money - and an eye to make more money - are going to take advantage of the situation by buying it at a fire sale price, and buying as many as they can, in order to outvote longer-term residents and make more money out of redeveloping the site and/or building.  I'm afraid that's yet another consequence of owners refusing to invest in their condos during the "golden years", and now having to pay huge sums due to their previous neglect.  What goes around, comes around.

I suppose this is yet another example of why it's foolish to trust one's home and finances to a group of owners who may not have the right priorities.  The few responsible owners who would have been willing to pay for upkeep were undoubtedly outvoted by those who preferred to minimize maintenance in order to maximize their budgets, individual and corporate.  Now that they're all in the same (sinking) boat, they don't want to acknowledge that it's ultimately their own fault.  Human nature is still as self-centered as always . . .


*Sigh*


Peter


Tuesday, April 23, 2024

About that critical infrastructure...

 

An incident in California demonstrates just how vulnerable much of our critical infrastructure really is.


An internet outage that caused massive delays, some hours long, for flights at the Sacramento International Airport (SMF) started after AT&T wires were intentionally cut, officials said.

. . .

"It looks like someone who knew what they were doing," [Sergeant] Gandhi said. "So this wasn't just a couple of teenagers ... ripping some wires out as a prank. [It] looks very deliberate ... like they knew what they were doing."


There's more at the link.

I hate to think what proportion of our critical infrastructure (airports, sewage and water plants, power stations, dams, factories, refineries, rail interchanges, etc.) are dependent on Internet connections for part or all of their operations.  I suspect it's most of them.  Those Internet connections mostly run over cables, or via satellite.  Given how easy it is to take out a major fiber-optic cable (dig down to it, set off explosives, and Bob's your uncle) or use a local EMP weapon (as already possessed by many hostile powers and nations) to interrupt satellite communications in a given area, and all those critical points are suddenly offline.  How long will it take to reconnect them all?  Will it even be possible, if it can't be done in a hurry?  Many of them can't take too much of an interruption before they have to shut down their plant, and once that's done it can take a heck of a lot of maintenance and preparation before machines can be turned on again.  (Just as one example, if you shut down a crucible in a metal plant, the metal still inside it will solidify.  Getting that back to a liquid, and decanting it, can take weeks or months - if it's possible at all.  Another example:  re-energizing an electrical grid.  That takes a lot of power just to restart everything, but if generating plants have all been shut down, where's it to come from?  What about transformers that blow during the process?  Are spares on hand?)

Emergencies aren't just caused by storms or earthquakes.  Determined enemies can create emergencies that take weeks, if not months (and perhaps years) to sort out.  Hence, emergency preparations need to take such elements into account.  If you live near or are dependent on (e.g. for employment) any of those critical infrastructure elements, your emergency preparations should take that reality into account.  Being thrown out of work due to your employer having to shut down operations is just as much of an emergency, in its own way, as having water or power cut off to your house.

Also, consider how much of our daily lives now depend on the Internet.  Home security systems, banking, shopping, entertainment . . . if we lose the Internet, how will we do all those things?  Have you checked where the nearest physical branch of your bank is, and its hours of operation, and how to get there?  It might surprise you to see how difficult it will be to conduct your financial affairs if you have to go there in person, rather than tap at your keyboard.  (That's one reason why keeping a reasonable stash of cash at home, just in case, is anything but overkill.  It may be essential.)

Peter


Saturday, April 20, 2024

Saturday Snippet: A survivor's story about a modern crisis

 

We've mentioned Selco Begovic in these pages several times.  He lived through the Bosnian war from 1992-1995, and has written three books incorporating his and others' stories from that war, plus lessons learned that we can apply in other emergency situations.  He's one of the few writers in that field who's "been there and done that", and speaks with the authority of hard-won experience.

This morning's snippet is from his book "SHTF Survival Stories:  Memories from the Balkan War".  I highly recommend it, and Selco's other books as well.



The blurb reads:


There are many books out there on all the different aspects of preparedness and survival that can provide you with information, checklists, and theoretical solutions to potential problems. But no matter how much you read or how well-researched the books you choose are, there’s only so much you can take away from these tomes. Getting your information from someone who has survived a "sh*t hit the fan" crisis will take your preparedness to an entirely different level. Meet Selco, a legend in the preparedness world. He survived in a city that was under siege for more than a year. He had no power, no running water, no stores for supplies, and every day, he ran the risk of meeting a violent death, whether by shells, sniper fire, or a person intent on hurting others. This book is a collection of memories from the darkest days of the Balkan War, where each moment could have been his last. This isn’t a cheerful and uplifting guide to survival. There’s no misplaced optimism. There’s only Selco, the darkness he faced, and the grim reality of an SHTF scenario most of us can’t even fathom. But if you can grasp it all before it happens, you’ll be much further ahead than those who are frozen in shock. Please note that Selco's first language is not English. These stories have been lightly edited for clarity, but they still retain the "accent."


As the blurb says, this isn't light, easy reading at all:  but it's very accurate in describing how civilization can (and does) go to hell in a handbasket when things go very wrong.  I've experienced that in three nations in Africa, and therefore I can verify what Selco says from my own experience.  The misery war brings is pretty much the same all over the world, no matter where it takes place or in what language its stories are told.

I've chosen just one of the stories Selco tells in this book.  This is "Laura's Story".  WARNING:  This discusses brutal violence, rape, and a number of other very dark topics.  If any of those subjects offend or upset you, you should not read further.


“Laura” was 42 years old at the time of the event, a clerk at the local bank, two kids in school, and her husband was a driver for the city bus services.

She is now 64 and the house where we are having this conversation is small and wet. On the floor there are several pots, probably used for catching rain from roof leaks. She looks like she is sick, smoking homemade cigarettes. The smell is awful.

She looks like she has given up, like she is going to kill herself right after our conversation.

She told me her story of the war.

Do you remember the period of hyperinflation when you could buy with credit and when that check came to payment it would be worth maybe 10% of the original value, some few months before killing and chaos started?

Inflation was like a toy for some folks.

Now when I remember that I feel like an idiot because I did not realize that everything was going to shit when something like that is possible.

Women from bank, my colleagues, were bragging how they bought extra stuff that way with almost no money, I was proud because I did not do that.

You know, my father was one of the first who organized an uprising against the Germans here in the big war, a real Communist. He even went as a volunteer in Spanish civil war there, fought against Franco.

He told me a story that once he met Marshall Tito in war, at some Communist conference. It was deep in the Bosnian woods in the winter of 1943, while they were encircled by Italians and Germans.

He told me that he was not like a man, he was an idea, he was the state. The movement that you just need to follow because he knows best.

I was raised to believe in the state, in the communist system, in the ideals of the state for workers and peasants.

When the war started in Croatia, I, just like most of us, believed that somehow someone will recognize that we are all same people, Socialists and Communists, and that we just needed to stick together, and everything would be fine.

But I did not know that the Western world did not want us to have Yugoslavia. We were simply too strong for them. They wanted us to hate each other, and to pull out that old hatred between Yugoslav nations.

And then one day my husband came home earlier from work. He looked badly shaken.

He told me that his coworker was absent from work for two weeks, officially he was ill, with pneumonia.

Rumors were that he was volunteering as a fighter in Croatia. Some people believed and some did not believe.

But when he came back to work, he had golden necklaces around his neck, golden rings, and big smile on his face.

Some folks said that he was bragging around that there in Croatia if you are willing to fight there were a lot of things to plunder, money and gold, and he whispered with sick smile that if you have the will and if you wanted there were lot of “available“ women, too.

Husband said that guy was always bit weird when it came to women and alcohol, but after he returned from that “weekend fighting“ for money, he always had a sick smile on his face, like he had seen that you can get money, gold, and women in much easier ways than standing all day long in a decades-old bus and selling tickets to angry workers and confused school kids.

My husband never was a brave man. He was good man, but he liked to pull back from situations where people used fists or knives.

You could say that he was coward in some way.

After few stories he heard from that colleague, the fear installed in him for real and forever. Anyway, that forever did not last too long.

S*** moved from Croatia to our town pretty soon. One morning I realized that my coworkers who were other nationalities were missing from work.

And I realized too, that their workplaces were empty more or less. While I was talking about how we should stick together in the spirit of socialism, they were organizing how to get the hell out of town.

I still believed in life together between people of different nationalities.

And then one morning my husband came earlier from his job. He told me that people in uniforms came and confiscated the buses in the name of the “Cause” and the state. Nobody said what cause or state, but he saw that they had blood in their eyes, and nobody was willing to ask too many questions.

They told the workers that they need to go home and follow the orders of the local “crisis government.”

In that time there were already several of those crisis governments, each with their own agendas, militias, and orders. People still tried to understand which of those government represented the state.

What they did not understand was that the state was already gone. There were wars between those people too.

My husband finally beat his fear and went to the local criminals to buy a rifle. He gave almost half the money that we had saved for new car for that thing.

When he came home with the rifle, he was even more afraid.

He did not talk too much, but I understood that he was more afraid to use that rifle than to be without it.

He was a weak man. He could not help it.

Somewhere around that day when he bought the rifle, we sent our kids to my sister, some 200 km from our place.

It was the first and probably last time when my husband’s fear was used to make a good decision. I did not want to be separated from my kids, but he just kept on telling me, “Laura, you do not know what is happening, and what are people saying outside. The kids need to go away from here.”

They left town in one of the last of the Red Cross organized convoys. Their small faces were confused behind the glass. While I was waving them at the local market where the transport was organized, my husband was in our backyard trying to kill beer bottles with bullets from his rifle.

Our neighbor was trying to teach him how to operate the rifle. Rumors in town were that this neighbor had some violent history. Some even said that he was in the French Foreign Legion.

My husband was a cook during the basic training in army, and he forgot even the basic stuff that he learned in the army.

After we got word from the Red Cross that our kids got to their destination in good order, we were kind of more relaxed, but silence moved into the house.

For days we listened to the radio on our car battery. Electricity, water, and all other services were gone. We still were trying to figure who was fighting, who was defending who was liberating, and who was representing the law in our city.

And then one night we awakened to strong kicks at the door.

“Police!” they shouted. “Open the door, now!”

My husband shouted at me, “Where is the rifle?”

I did not know of course, and I still believe that he simply forgot where he put it. He was completely lost in fear.

Anyway, he opened the door. They told him that they were newly organized police and that they trying to organize law in the city.

Of course, he believed them.

They had uniforms, helmets, weapon, and authority. He simply was that kind of man. He wanted to trust.

He even remembered where he left his rifle when they asked him. And then they told him that he needed to go with them to the police station and fill out some simple paperwork because that rifle, nothing more.

I never saw him again.

I still remember how he was very calmly putting his jacket on while he was having a conversation with those guys. He had trust on his face. He was happy there was someone finally who he could trust, who would tell him what to do.

What else does a law-abiding citizen need? F***!

I never saw him again.

But I saw those people again the very next night.

They did not knock or yell this time. One of them simply crushed the doorknob with his boot.

When they entered house one of them punched me in the face right away, and he said to me just one word. “Gold?”

He kicked me with his boot few more times before the meaning of that word finally got through my brain and then he kicked me few more times before I caught my breath and strength to tell him where my gold necklaces and rings were.

You are asking me did they do anything more to me? You mean did they rape me?

Yeah, they did. Two of them raped me while the two other guys were collecting interesting stuff in my house.

I still do not remember if the other two guys raped me, or if they did not.

After the second one somehow, I kinda left my body. It was like I was floating next to the ceiling while he was on me.

I remember the words “Let’s just kill this bitch.”

Much later I realized that those words were spoken about me.

Did I want to be killed after that?

No, actually not. In that moment I felt only physical pain, but I still had the will to live. I did not want to die. Not yet.

I survived that, just like hundreds of other women in that time.

I do not remember how I lived the next month or two.

I mean I remember everything in a way: black market, famine, diseases, endless killings, side switching, rumors about peace and everything else.

But from the moment when those guys left my house, everything was blurred. I simply pushed on and on.

I learned how to treat wounded in one of the local militias, I found a man who protected me, not because he loved me or because he was a good man. It was because I was a woman.

I remember endless wounded guys screaming and in pain.

And then one day peace came, I was hearing from all sides that peace has come, and finally everything was gonna be fine.

And that was moment when I broke.

I was an old woman. My husband was dead, but actually officially he was still missing. I could not even get a pension from state because officially he was not dead. He was not founded in one of the thousand improvised graves.

He was probably killed immediately after he was taken from our house, maybe 500 meters from our house. Turned to dust or just pile of bones somewhere in someone abandoned well, or on the bottom of the river.

Where are my kids?

One is in America. She is some kind of small boss in a local fast food restaurant. Whenever I speak to her on phone, I understand her less. Each time she uses more English then our language, and each time I am happier.

Why?

I want from her to forget this country, this language. I want from her to forget me, to never come back here, I do not want her to be one day outside her body while some guy is on top of her and another searching her home for gold in the name of state.

My other kid?

Well, he is some kind of musician. Lives in Italy. I think he is homosexual.

What are my feelings about that?

I do not care, as long as he does not come back here. I do not want him to be taken from the house in the middle of the night in the name of the cause, in some future “Balkan conflict.”

Sometimes I have a dream that he might be on the other side in some future war here. What if he was one of the guys who searched for gold and valuables after he killed a woman’s husband?

And next morning when I wake from that dream, I even more want from him to hate everything that is here, country people, system, even me.

Just as long as he does not come back.

What do I do for living?

I do what I learned in that time. I care for sick folks. I have a few older people that I take care of. I wash them, clean them, take care for this disease, and similar.

It is enough for cigarettes and beer and that food that I eat.

I’ll be fine.

Do I trust in living together with harmony between different people?

Hmmm, I do not care for that. I do not give a s***.


Well, there you have it.  A family who had never prepared for the complete collapse of the society in which they lived . . . and paid the price for it.  If you think that can't happen anywhere else, even in America, you're deluded.  I've seen it happen elsewhere, and experienced for myself the consequences.  In some of our inner cities today, conditions very like those Laura describes are a daily fact of life.  I'm not joking.  They really are.

Read, and learn . . . and ask yourself:  "If this happened to my family, tomorrow, how well are we equipped and trained to survive it?"

Peter


Wednesday, March 27, 2024

Paying for the Key Bridge is going to be expensive

 

It's too early to speculate, but the destruction of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore is going to be very expensive to insurers, according to Lloyd's List.  (A "club", mentioned in the report, is a consortium or syndicate of insurers.)


According to the IG database, Dali [the ship that struck the bridge] is entered with Britannia, a London-based marine mutual. Britannia has been approached for confirmation.

The largest element of any payout will be the value of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, which was built in 1977 at a cost of $60m at the time, equivalent to over $300m today.

However, construction inflation has far outstripped consumer price inflation over the intervening period, and the replacement cost could be substantially higher.

No deaths have yet been reported, but fears are growing for the seven people still missing.

The lives of US citizens are deemed to be worth far greater compensation than the lives of third-world seafarers. P&I clubs generally offer single-digit million dollar payouts to victims' families, preferring the certainty of a quick settlement to costly protracted litigation in the US.

Delays to other vessels are not a P&I liability, although prudent shipowners will have delay cover. P&I clubs often offer delay cover as a sideline and will find themselves on the hook for much of it.

Britannia will be responsible for the first $10m of any claim on its own account. Once the bill exceeds this layer - as is certain to be the case with Dali - it is shared among IG affiliates through the pool scheme.

In the simplest possible terms, the other 11 members will chip in pro rata for the $10m-$30m tranche, after which liability is reinsured through Bermuda-based captive vehicle Hydra.

The general excess of loss programme, known as GXL in industry jargon, kicks in at the pool ceiling of $100m. GXL, which is funded by shipowners through a levy imposed per gross tonne, provides an additional $2bn of reinsurance in a three-layer structure.

A further $1bn of reinsurance cover - known as 'the collective overspill' - is purchased by the IG to provide protection in respect of claims exceeding the upper GXL cover limit of $2.1bn.

Major marine casualties are long tail events and it is often years before the full cost can be assessed.


There's more at the link.

The cost isn't limited to the ship and the bridge.  Business Insider reports:


Baltimore is among the busiest ports in the nation, seeing more than a million shipping containers pass through each year. The collapse — which closed the port to all maritime and most road traffic until further notice — is already beginning to wreak havoc on the supply chain.

The cost of building the bridge back fast enough to offset diversions as much as possible could saddle the government with a more than $600 million bill, David MacKenzie, chair of engineering and architecture consultancy COWIfonden, told Sky News.

The container ship, the Dali, is owned by a Singapore-based firm. The ship's charterer, Maersk, confirmed to Business Insider that vessel company Synergy Group operates the ship. 

However, the companies with cargo aboard the Dali will ultimately be responsible for the ship's damages and cargo costs.

. . .

An ancient maritime law known as "general average" dictates that companies with even a single container aboard a ship have to split the damages pro rata based on the number of containers, ensuring all the stakeholders benefiting from the voyage are splitting the risk, Petersen said.

The principle dates back hundreds of years and was originally meant to ensure sailors on board a ship weren't worried about specific cargo if a disaster required them to start throwing containers overboard, according to Petersen.

The majority of the financial fallout is likely to lay primarily with the insurance industry, according to media reports.

Industry experts told FT that insurers could pay out losses for bridge damage, port disruption, and any loss of life.

The collapse could drive "one of the largest claims ever to hit the marine (re)insurance market," John Miklus, president of the American Institute of Marine Underwriters, told Insurance Business.

He told the outlet that the loss of revenue from tolls while the bridge is being rebuilt will be expensive, as will any liability claims from deaths or injuries.


Again, more at the link.

If you add up all those costs and expenses, it's not impossible that insurers could be staring down the barrel of a $3-$4 billion dollar payout, perhaps even higher.  One hopes the insurers "laid off" at least part of the risk onto reinsurers, or some of them might end up bankrupt.

Peter


Preparing for crises: to whom is our greatest responsibility?

 

I'm sure everybody who makes preparations for potential problems, no matter how small, has run into the sort of friend who says, "If disaster strikes, I'm coming over to your place.  You have enough to take care of us, too!"  My response to that is usually less than polite, to put it mildly.

This has led to accusations of being "un-Christian", in terms like "I'm your neighbor!  The parable of the Good Samaritan means you have to take care of me!"  The freeloaders will find all sorts of Scriptural quotations to justify their relying on you to take care of them in an emergency, rather than doing it themselves.  They don't seem to like it when I quote the parable of the wise and foolish virgins in reply.  They object, "But that's taking it out of context!  That's for when Christ returns, not a disaster!"  When I point out that, in the event of a disaster, they may be meeting Christ a lot sooner than they'd otherwise planned, they don't seem to appreciate it...

Arguments about context notwithstanding, I think the parable of the wise and foolish virgins is very applicable to preparing for difficult situations.  The "oil in our lamps" is what we need to keep ourselves and our loved ones alive and safe - well, as safe as possible - during hard times.  If we have "oil", we'll probably make it through the problems.  If we don't, it'll be a lot more difficult (and possibly more dangerous), and we may not make it through them.  It's as simple as that.

That being the case, for whom are we building up our emergency supplies?  It's not for every Tom, Dick and Harry who demands them.  I daresay none of us are wealthy enough to stockpile an almost infinite amount of goodies "just in case".  Most of us find it difficult enough to build up sufficient supplies for our own family, which must have first claim on them.  If we're fortunate enough to have a local "tribe" or extended family, people we know we can rely on in an emergency, they too may have a legitimate claim on us, just as we might have the same claim on them:  they help us, we help them.  It's a two-way street.  However, outside that sort of relationship, do we owe anything to those who have suddenly been left to their own resources when trouble comes, and realize they have none?  Do they have a tertiary claim on us?  I would argue they don't, at least not to any great extent.

Here we run headlong into the attitudes of society as a whole.  You can bet your last penny that in a disaster situation, the authorities will rely on local ordinances that empower them to confiscate anything and everything they need to help their people survive.  That will almost certainly include declaring preppers to be "hoarders" - thieves, in so many words - rather than prudent householders, in order to justify confiscating their preparations for the benefit of others.  If you have equipment or buildings that might be useful, expect to have them appropriated as well.  They won't ask your permission - they'll tell you, and if you object, you'll probably be arrested.  In larger cities, the welfare-dependent portion of the population will doubtless demand that the authorities do that, and do so themselves if they won't (yet another reason not to live in big cities).

Even if the authorities don't get that overbearing, my experience in the Third World during disasters is that local "strong men" will try to "organize" a street, or a neighborhood, or an area.  They'll send their followers to "inspect" people's homes and confiscate whatever they declare is needed to maintain order and look after the needy.  (Generally, of course, they'll keep what they confiscate for themselves, and/or demand payment in cash or in kind if you want some.)  If you object, you may be beaten up or worse;  you'll certainly be threatened and browbeaten.  (Think of the local "strong men" as an involuntary HOA, laying down rules and regulations that you may not like, but you'll be forced to follow if you want to live there.  It's just that this HOA is less likely than most to tolerate disagreement, and may be armed to enforce its will.)  Don't expect sweet reason and understanding from such folks.  In a disaster, "Karens" are all too willing to tell others what to do, and to force them to obey if they get half a chance.  (There are far too many of them in government as it is.)

This is why I and others suggest that you split your emergency preparations.  Part can be more visible, perhaps in the form of an "extended pantry", a larger-than-usual supply of canned and dried food in or near your kitchen.  If people demand to know what preparations you've made, and you're not in a position to refuse to show them, you can let them see that.  If they insist on confiscating some of it, by all means object (but not strongly enough to endanger your safety and/or that of your family).  Meanwhile, you should have more (perhaps most of) your emergency supplies hidden elsewhere, out of plain sight, either on your property and/or in a remote location like a storage unit or a friend's place that's less likely to be visited by such marauders, official or otherwise.  (Storage units may not be safe in such a situation.  They're likely to be looted, so plan to get important items out of them as quickly as possible if an emergency arises.)

Finally, expect such situations to arise in the event of a disaster or disruption.  There will be those who've made little or no preparation to endure such events, and who will turn to others such as yourself to tide them over.  It'll take firmness and determination to tell them "No", and you may have to back up words with actions if push comes to shove.  Your family is your primary responsibility, and comes first;  your extended family or "tribe" comes next as your secondary responsibility.  People who are not in those categories may ask for help, but have no right to demand it.  You have every right to refuse them if that would threaten your ability to help your primary and secondary responsibilities.

As a Christian, I do believe it's our duty to help those less fortunate than ourselves.  That's why I keep some extras in our emergency preparations, so that I can contribute at least something to those who may ask for help.  However, when those extras run out, that's it.  If others won't accept that and get pushy, then it's time for me to get pushy right back at them.  (There are those who believe one shouldn't help at all, because that will only encourage those one helps to demand more when the initial help runs out - a potential threat to our safety.  I guess that's a decision for each of us to make, based on our own consciences.)

What say you, readers?  Let us know your thoughts in Comments.

Peter


Tuesday, March 26, 2024

The Baltimore bridge collapse and supply chains

 

By now I'm sure we've all heard that the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, Maryland, collapsed last night after being struck by a container ship.  Casualty figures are as yet unknown, but are almost certain to be in double figures.  Our sincere condolences to all involved.

However, the real impact of this bridge collapse is likely to be on supply chains serving the most populous part of the USA.


The bridge collapse has paralyzed a large swath of the largest inland port on the East Coast. The port is ranked 9th for total dollar value of cargo and 13th for cargo tonnage among US ports.

. . .

The bridge spans the Patapsco River and carries an estimated 11.5 million vehicles annually. In this collapse, the only shipping lane in and out of the port was severed.

Baltimore is the most inland port on the East Coast and is connected to the I-95 highway network. With no commercial vessels sailing in and out of port anytime soon, this is catastrophic for port operations and could spark supply chain snarls in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

. . .

According to the Maryland government's website, the Port of Baltimore handled over 52 million tons of international cargo valued at more than $80 billion last year, ranking it as the ninth busiest port in the United States. The data shows that the port handled 847,158 autos and light trucks in 2023, the most of any US port. The port also handles farm and construction machinery, sugar, gypsum, and coal.


There's more at the link.

It's not just ships that will be affected.  With so major a road transport artery shut down, trucks will be severely delayed by having to detour around the affected area (and, of course, by greatly increased traffic congestion due to everybody else having to take the same detour).  Our supermarkets rely on truck transport to receive food and other essentials every day.  This incident will almost certainly have a serious impact on consumers in north-eastern states.  It'll take years to rebuild this bridge, and heaven knows where the money will come from.  It'll almost certainly have to be borrowed, adding to our already excessive national debt.

Given all the existing pressures on supply chains, this is very bad news.

Peter


Friday, February 2, 2024

What's driving the illegal alien surge into the USA

 

Many experts, including Michael Yon (whom we've met on this blog more than once), have argued that the illegal alien surge over our southern border is not accidental, but deliberate:  planned, organized and financed by anti-American forces.

Now Tucker Carlson interviews Bret Weinstein, and they lay out precisely what's going on - and who's behind it.  If this isn't an act of war, it's the next best thing to it, IMHO.  You truly need to watch this interview, and listen, and learn.




That's what's pouring into our country, night and day, 24/7/365 - and the Biden administration is not only allowing it, it's encouraging it and paying for it by subsidizing both the migrants and the United Nations and other bodies that are aiding and abetting their journey to this country.

We're subsidizing our own defeat, our destruction as a society and a constitutional republic - and time to stop it is running out.




Peter


Friday, October 27, 2023

Preparing for emergencies: The devil's in the details...

 

I received an e-mail this morning from reader Chad B.  He and his family have just learned a very important lesson in preparedness.  He writes:


We recently moved into a new place back in May - about 20 acres, house has a water catchment system. I'm an electrician, self employed, no employees. I have invested in a portable backup generator / welder and the house comes with three 1000 gallon rain water catchment tanks for the two sides of the house, and one for the shop. We have a good stock of food, and animals on property. I mention these things just to say that we have the tools on hand should things go sideways.

But, running a business, and homeschooling 5 children all 6 and under, life gets away from you. You get into a mode of just getting by day to day when work gets busy, the animals get into breeding season, and you have to stock up everything for the winter. Especially when the house wasn't kept well by the previous people living in it, and you're having to make constant repairs.

On Tuesday the local water company, without any warning, shut off the water in the middle of our animal chores, citing that we had a massive leak of 588,600 gallons over the last 30 days. The kitchen was covered with dirty dishes, the stock tank 3/4 full, we weren't set up for using the catchment system regularly (but luckily one of the repairs was making sure it worked!), and all the floors in the house were a mess.

We quickly realized we had no real, workable plan for not contaminating our Berkey filter. We had no clean dishes for eating, no easy way to bath, no sanitation plans in place for dishes, no plan on how to teach little children how to act in this new situation.

We probably spent 3/4 of a day and 50 gallons of water just prepping for actually living in this new environment, with me having to take off work, and having to jump back and forth between a world that is not in "disaster mode" and our own issues. We could have done with less, but luckily we have that abundance in the tanks and had a bunch of rain to top them off. Thank goodness we still have electricity and God's timing of rain!

Now it's Friday, and we have some of the day to day worked out, but it's still hit and miss. Because we still have to go to work, deal with children, animals breaking out of fencing, and all the other life issues; it doesn't let us focus on really buckling down as much as I'd like. The wife and I discussed that we definitely need to set up times to do "grid down" exercises, and I really, really suggest it to all your readers. It surprised me how a simple thing like cleanliness can trip you up so much.

When my wife and I sat down to talk, we found the lesson is this:

If your house isn't clean and ready for a disaster right now, you're already three steps behind when you need to be two steps ahead.


In a second e-mail, he added:


Oh, I forgot to mention in the first email that, in order to keep the house running, on her way back home from a Dr appointment the morning that they shut off the water, my wife had to stop at the store for paper plates, bottled water, plastic utensils, and sandwich stuff so that the family could keep going without skipping a beat - and that we've had to keep using that stuff to keep pace with modern society. If not for the store, we wouldn't be able to function right now. Basically, all our prepping, and all we've been able to do is wash dishes, flush toilets, and keep sanitation - no ability to cook, and maintain regular house functions. 

NO GOOD!


Sadly, he and his family learned their lesson the hard way;  but we all have to keep it in mind.  Disasters, or even the less troublesome difficulties in life, mostly don't bother to give us advance warning that they're about to arrive.  One minute things are going smoothly, the next we hit a gigantic bump in the road.  If we're ready for it, all well and good.  If not . . . bad things can happen, and very quickly.  Furthermore, one bad thing happening can cause a chain reaction of more bad things happening, to our extreme discomfort and annoyance.

A last thought.  Arthur Sido notes:


Now we are actively dropping bombs in a sovereign nation that we are not at war with, hitting “proxies” for a different foreign nation. All of this in a country, Syria, with a large Russian military presence.

As I have stated repeatedly, I am not a military strategist, but it seems to me that if you keep dropping bombs near Russian soldiers, the odds of “accidentally” killing some goes way up and the more troops and assets you have in a region experiencing a hot war, the better the chances some of our troops will get killed.

. . .

It certainly seems like the pieces are in place ... to finally go after the neocon’s favorite wet dream of a war with Iran, perhaps Russia and China for the fun of it as well.

Things are pretty quiet right now on the homefront but if we get into a shooting war, as seems likely, watch for store shelves to empty out in a hurry. You should be sitting pretty already but if you aren’t, time is a wastin’ to get ready.


Again, more at the link.

The war in Israel has already drastically affected price and availability of ammunition in this country, as we noted recently.  In its latest newsletter, SGAmmo observed:


We have seen surging demand over the past 19 days at levels not seen since the outbreak of Covid19 in March of 2020, and demand continues to remain elevated at extremely high levels even after over 2 full weeks have passed. Expect shipping delays in the 5 to 10 day range ... Fear driven stockpiling can be extremely intense causing ammo to sell in mass volumes, and can overwhelm the supply chain quickly and lead to shortages, spotty availability and higher prices. We have now recently seen a major shock affect the market with the horror of the Israel / Hamas war, and now a major mass shooting as an aftershock. These conditions back to back have driven demand to new levels, and will continue to pressure the supply chain, as the masses of customers all move to stock up on the same products at the same time. Should another shocking event happen, the market could spiral out of control similar to it did in 2020 and 2021. What you do is your business, but I could easily see additional price increases, and a simple lack of availability on popular calibers to come in the months ahead.


Take heed.  You should already have most of what you need.  Buy what you lack now, before the supply dries up, because if a war hits us, it's going to become literally impossible to buy any - all the ammo factories will be switched over to war production.

Furthermore, if a shooting war breaks out, expect oil supplies from the Middle East to be restricted almost at once;  and don't forget that although we produce much of the oil we need, our allies who will be cut off from their normal suppliers will turn to us for help, reducing fuel available to the consumer market.  If so, fuel will almost certainly be in short supply for an unknown period of time.  If you run a generator, get more fuel for it;  and if you operate a vehicle, I very strongly suggest storing enough fuel to fill its tank at least twice.  If everything goes wrong and you have to leave for a safer place, use part of that fuel to fill your vehicle and take the rest with you, because if everybody else is also traveling, you're unlikely to find more at gas stations along the road.  Also, from now on, keep your vehicle's tank at least half-full on a permanent basis.  Some suggest two-thirds to three-quarters full.  That may not be practical, but it's something I'll try to achieve whenever possible.

A final thought.  We're never going to have everything right, and be prepared for every possible eventuality.  We may think we've covered all the bases, but when things go pear-shaped, we'll almost certainly find holes in our plans and preparations.  That's OK.  It's inevitable.  If we try to cover as much of the essential elements as we can, that will get us through the worst;  and when we find gaps and shortages, we'll cover them as best we can (including by trading preps of which we have a lot with those who need them, and have what we need).  Flexibility and versatility are good things in an emergency.  Never despair - just shrug your shoulders, resolve to do better next time, and get on with it.  As the late President Theodore Roosevelt used to say, "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are".  If you can't do it, or don't have it, or it isn't practicable where you are, don't sit there and fret over it.  Do something else!

Peter


Monday, September 25, 2023

Preparing for emergencies by layering your resources

 

The concept of "layering" is applied in many fields.  For example, "layered clothing" means wearing multiple layers of clothes, so that when cold, all of them work together to keep you warm, but as things warm up, you can take off one layer at a time to stay comfortable.  It's less useful to have just one warm garment, which may leave you too hot (with it on) or too cold (with it off).

I apply the same technique to planning for emergencies.  Say you want to prepare for a weather emergency such as a hurricane or tornado that takes out power, water, etc. to your area.  Ideally, you'll have a selection of preps that can be used depending on the conditions at the time.  For example, when it comes to food, having some that can be eaten without cooking or heating is a good idea for the first day or two, in case those facilities aren't available.  Longer term, have multiple means of cooking (e.g. electricity, propane, firewood, charcoal, etc.) so that if one isn't available or usable, another will be.  (See my earlier article about rocket stoves;  we have a couple of them standing by, plus fuel for them.)

I've just taken delivery of our wood supply for the winter;  about a cord of good hardwood (oak, pecan, etc.).  Some can go in our fireplace as is, for regular fires during winter, because we like them;  but there's enough extra that if power went out for a week or two, we'd have enough to keep the living-room warm 24/7 (and the cats sprawled out in front of the fireplace!).  However, we're not limited to firewood.  We have a kerosene heater, with enough fuel for a week or two;  three small propane heaters that can warm bedrooms;  and a cylinder-top propane heater for bigger rooms.  We should get by for the likely duration of an emergency.  If it turns into something long-term, well, we'll have to figure that out as we go along - but then, so will everybody else.

As far as electricity goes, having a standby generator has long been good practice, as well as battery-powered backup lights, radios, etc.  More recently, electric backup "power stations" (such as those from Bluetti, Ecoflow or Jackery, to name only a few well-known brands), have come on the market, challenging the supremacy of generators, and are making inroads.  I like the idea very much, particularly because they can be recharged using solar panels, but their prices are still pretty high compared to a generator's power output (especially when factoring in the solar panel cost in addition to the basic power station).  I'd love to find a portable solar panel setup that can be used to charge any "power station" or battery bank or something similar, regardless of manufacturer, but so far I haven't found anything affordable.  Can any reader suggest a good solution to that need?  If so, please let us know in Comments.  I'm sure there'll be lots of interested people.

So, dear readers, how are you layering your defenses, and your preparations for emergencies?  Share your ideas with us in Comments, and let's learn from each other.  The way things are going, we're likely to need them.

Peter